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After an eventful (and profitable) Sunday slate of games, it's time to turn our sites to the Monday night slate which has two games tonight and unlike previous years, they will be overlapping with the Saints-Panthers game starting at 7:15 EST and the Steelers-Browns game at 8:15. You can check out our showdown article for the early game here, but I'll be breaking down the AFC North grudge match between my beloved Steelers and their arch-rival Cleveland Browns.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Browns vs. Steelers NFL DFS showdown slate on September 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Deshaun Watson - QB, $15,900 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
This could be an ugly game tonight as both offenses are anything but polished and I believe both defenses are pretty good. Sure, the Steelers allowed 30 points to the Niners last week, but I don't think that diminishes them entirely as we all know that San Francisco is pretty darn talented on offense.
Watson was outplayed by Kenny Pickett in their only matchup at the end of last season, but he offers more fantasy upside for DFS with his ability to run. He threw for only 154 yards in the opener against the Bengals and tossed an interception, but he still finished with 21.7 DK points thanks to 45 rushing yards and a rushing TD. We have to consider grabbing raw points in showdown formats and playing both quarterbacks, despite their tough matchups, is something I think we should consider in this game.
Nick Chubb - RB, $18,300 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Chubb is the overall top play in this game. He's proven himself to be one of the most efficient ball carriers in the NFL and that was no different against the Bengals as he piled up 106 yards rushing on just 18 carries. What makes him nearly impossible to fade this year is that they have already showed that they intend to throw him the ball out of the backfield, too, as he caught four passes for another 21 yards against Cincy.
We all get to watch Nick Chubb play football tomorrow 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/n2lRWbiN0S
— ESPN Cleveland (@ESPNCleveland) September 9, 2023
Chubb has run over the Steelers in recent years. He has racked up 248 yards rushing and two touchdowns in their last three meetings while averaging over five yards per carry. The Browns will run the football tonight and Chubb will get his yards that's for sure. The Steelers are missing their best interior defensive lineman in Cameron Heyward, which certainly makes Chubb look even better here.
Whether or not he gets in the end zone once or even twice will ultimately decide if he finishes as the top point scorer. We have enough value on DK to plug him into the captain spot if we want and of course on FanDuel he costs the same price no matter where you slot him into your lineup.
Other Captains/MVPs: Kenny Pickett, Elijah Moore (value capt)
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DFS Flex Plays
Elijah Moore - WR, $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
With Amari Cooper being "closer to doubtful" than questionable, Moore could step up into the WR1 role for the Browns tonight. There will also be more targets to go around for tight end David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones, but Moore had twice the targets of both of them combined in Week One as Watson looked his way seven times. He only caught three of those seven targets for 43 yards, but he also had two carries for 19 yards in the run game and it's clear that the Browns intend to get him involved in this offense.
He's going to be chalk city, but at this price I would rather eat the chalk than try to leverage it. You can only get so cute in showdown contests with a tight player pool and playing Moore makes a lot more sense than fading him. I expect the Steelers to put some pressure on Watson and for him to get the ball out quickly to Moore on some shorter routes.
Pat Freiermuth - TE, $5,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
"Patty F" is officially Kenny Pickett's security blanket. The two of them developed a nice rapport last season and Pickett looked his way for the Steelers only touchdown last week on a three-yard pass and catch.
Pat Freiermuth touchdown. Bailing out his quarterback. Nittany Lions in the NFL pic.twitter.com/HUHHxVG4gC
— Dear Old State (@_DearOldState) September 10, 2023
Freiermuth finished with four targets and I would expect him to get even a few more tonight as the Steelers lost their top receiving option, Diontae Johnson, in that Week One loss for at least a few weeks. While George Pickens specializes in making plays down the field, it should be Freiermuth and Allen Robinson operating underneath and picking up short gains to keep the chains moving.
Other Flex Plays: Allen Robinson, George Pickens, David Njoku
DFS Value Plays
Jaylen Warren - RB, $3,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Warren is an elite value on DK, where we have full PPR scoring. We saw him catch five short passes last week and score 6.8 DK points on just 18 total yards gained. He had only three carries, but the Steelers had to completely abandon the run game. I think he's much more likely to get 5-6 carries tonight and catch a handful of passes, too.
On FanDuel, he is less appealing, but we still need a few punts if we are going to smash in Chubb and one or both of the QBs. At the same price as this next backup RB, I prefer Warren on FanDuel.
Jerome Ford - RB, $400 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Jerome Ford had 15 (yeah 15!) carries last week against the Bengals but gained just 35 yards. In his defense, he had a lot of those runs come late in the game when the Bengals were keying on the run and knew the Browns were just trying to kill the clock. Ford was not targeted at all in the passing game, but again - the Browns were in a game script where they simply weren't passing the ball much in the second half.
At only 400 bucks on DK, he can make a lot of good stuff fit and he doesn't need to do much to pay off his price tag. He certainly won't handle 15 touches again, but he should work in as Chubb's backup for 5-10 touches and it's likely he is more productive on a per-touch basis than he was against Cincy.
Other Value Plays: Calvin Austin, Harrison Bryant, Marquise Goodwin, Both kickers and both defenses!
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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