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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an AFC North Showdown on the docket as Bailey Zappe and the Cleveland Browns (3-13) head to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (11-5). While Cleveland doesn't have anything to play for, they can still play spoiler for their division rival as Lamar and the Ravens are seeking back-to-back AFC North titles. Let's see how this plays out.
Dawg: Myles Garrett would rather "mess up" the #Ravens division title hopes than win the sack title:
“I mean, I’d rather upset them and mess up their playoff hopes...And if the sack title comes along with that, great.”
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— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 3, 2025
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Browns vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on January 4. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Lamar Jackson - QB, $8,000 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,955 passing yards, 39 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 130 rushing attempts, 852 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 41.45%
I'll start things off with Lamar Jackson. Lamar and the Ravens had a rough go of things early on in the year, starting 0-2. Following this, they've ripped off 11 of 14 since, largely in part due to Lamar's MVP-caliber season. While it remains unlikely that he will bring home his third MVP award, Lamar, in my opinion, is having the best season of his career. He'll look to cap off a wonderful regular-season campaign against Cleveland in this one.
My model projects Lamar to throw for 248.55 yards and 1.67 touchdowns to just 0.71 interceptions, adding 38.4 yards and 0.28 touchdowns by way of his legs.
Derrick Henry - RB, $17,700 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 305 rushing attempts, 1,783 rushing yards, 19 targets, 17 receptions, 170 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -2.1%
I'll stay on the Ravens sideline here and take a look at Derrick Henry next. Similar to Lamar, the Ravens' 11-3 run which started in Week 3 has been largely due to the addition of Henry this past offseason. Had Saquon Barkley fallen just 100 yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, many would crown the addition of King Henry to this Ravens offense the best free agency signing of the offseason. Nevertheless, I'll back Henry, who averaged nearly 7 yards per carry against Cleveland in their first matchup.
My model projects Derrick Henry to run the ball for 74.68 yards on 14.1 carries, adding 1.23 receptions on 1.7 targets for another 11.82 yards and 0.78 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Zay Flowers, Keaton Mitchell, Jerry Jeudy, Mark Andrews
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Zay Flowers - WR, $9,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 114 targets, 73 receptions, 1,047 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: 25.6%
I’ll take a look at Zay Flowers next. I'll have a lot of Flowers in this matchup, particularly in my Lamar Jackson captain/MVP lineups. Flowers had one of his best games of the season against this Browns team back in Week 8, catching seven of 12 targets for 115 yards. After being named to his first Pro Bowl, Flowers will look to make a huge statement in the final game of the regular season.
Zay Flowers reaction to becoming the first Ravens WR ever selected to the Pro Bowl is priceless 🥺
🎥: @Ravenspic.twitter.com/Oc2wi4FLLL
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) January 3, 2025
My model projects Flowers to catch 5.68 of 9.02 targets for 67.98 yards and 0.36 touchdowns. While Flowers and the entire Baltimore offense is metaphorically "capped" due to them being 19.5-point favorites, I think they do more than enough early on to create the value we need on this slate.
Jerry Jeudy - WR, $9,800 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 132 targets, 84 receptions, 1,166 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: 23.8%
I'll flip the field and take a look at the top receiver on the other sideline in Jerry Jeudy. While the 2024-25 season did not pan out the way that the Browns or their fans wanted, Jeudy had himself a very solid campaign, logging career highs in receptions and receiving yards, as he'll finish with over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He's a tough fade in this matchup, especially coming off of last week where he saw a whopping 18 targets, catching 12 for 94 yards.
My model projects Jeudy to catch 7.1 of 11.12 targets in this one for 88.92 yards and 0.27 touchdowns. It's a tougher ask with Zappe under center, but I would anticipate the volume being there.
Other Flex Options: Bailey Zappe, Mark Andrews
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
D'Onta Foreman - RB, $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 61 rushing attempts, 205 rushing yards, seven targets, five receptions, 46 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.66%
I'll look at a pair of running backs in the value spots, starting with D'Onta Foreman. As previously mentioned, the 2024-25 season did not go as planned for Cleveland, and a large part of that was due to injuries. After remarkably coming back from a gruesome lower-body injury in 2023, Nick Chubb was placed on injured reserve once again with a left foot fracture. We had also learned earlier in the week that Jerome Ford is also heading to IR with an ankle injury. This opens up the door for Foreman to take the lead back role in Cleveland's offense for this one.
My model projects Foreman to run for 46.4 yards on 10.89 carries and 0.31 touchdowns, without offering very much in the passing game. It's not much, but considering the expected volume Foreman should receive, I'd bet my bottom dollar that he'll be popular in this showdown, and I don't want to miss out.
Keaton Mitchell - RB, $2,400 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 11 rushing attempts, 20 rushing yards, one target, one reception, 28 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -2.1%
I'll wrap things up with Keaton Mitchell. After naming three of the top guys in the Ravens offense earlier in the article, I had only mentioned once that Baltimore is nearly a 20-point favorite. While Baltimore needs to win this game, their fate in terms of the AFC North remains unclear until the Steelers and Bengals square off later this evening. Should the Ravens begin to pull away, I find it likely that Keaton Mitchell will see quite a bit of work to get his legs under him in just his second game of the season, especially with Justice Hill ruled out of this one as he deals with illness and a concussion.
My model projects Mitchell to run the ball for 46.47 yards on 7.44 attempts, adding 2.23 receptions on 3.12 targets for another 17.68 yards and 0.27 total touchdowns. He is for sure the best value play on the slate, and I'm interested in having a few lineups with him in the 1.5x spots as well.
Other Value Options: Ravens D/ST, Justin Tucker, Elijah Moore, Isaiah Likely
Have a good weekend, everyone!
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