RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 6 has been successful so far. I had a decent day yesterday, with a better showing on the betting side of things than the DFS side of things. However, I had myself a very nice slate on Sunday Night Football, which was capped off with an Eagles victory! While that one got more exciting than it needed to be, I'll be interested to see how this game tonight plays out, as the Denver Broncos (2-3) head into LA to take on the Chargers (3-2). While on paper it looks like the Chargers are clearly the superior team here, let's take a deeper look to see how each team breaks down.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Broncos vs Chargers NFL DFS showdown slate on October 17th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $16,500 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,478 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 32.9% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -27.5% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off the slate with Justin Herbert. I'll be rather heavy on the Chargers' offense in the 1.5x spots tonight. The Broncos' defense has been very good, don't get me wrong, but I think Herbert and the boys just have too much upside relative to the Broncos. Herbert played in just two games against Denver in the last two seasons, but put up respectable numbers, tossing 540 passing yards and four touchdowns with just two interceptions. My model does show a slight passing lean towards the Chargers' passing game here, so I'll ever so slightly rank him higher than Austin Ekeler tonight.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $17,100 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 61 carries, 313 rushing yards, 33 targets, 31 receptions, 214 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -15.1% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -7.5% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
Despite the model leaning towards a passing funnel for LA tonight, the matchup here plays to Ekeler's strength. While the 45% power success and 24% stuffed rate the Chargers have coming into this one isn't ideal for any running back, it almost plays into Ekeler's strong suits. I have the Chargers projected for 1.34 second-level yards and 1.4 open-field yards tonight, both among the highest numbers on the slate. Partnered with a 10.56% projected DVOA against running backs in the passing game, I find it very likely that Ekeler will still "get his" tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Cortland Sutton, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer
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DFS Flex Plays
Russell Wilson - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,254 passing yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 0.6% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.7% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
So I'm pretty much split down the middle in terms of which parts of the offense I want to attack from both sides of the field tonight. While I will have more Chargers than Broncos, my model isn't giving me a strong lean one way or the other when it comes to the Broncos' offense. I do like Wilson due to the fact that the Broncos will have to play from behind at some point in this matchup. I'll say this: I'm very much sick and tired of writing up this dang offense for a primetime game every week.
Melvin Gordon II - RB, $8,w00 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 52 carries, 193 rushing yards, 13 targets, 11 receptions, 98 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -14.5% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -1% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
Melvin Gordon had himself a nice game as the "lead back" during that abysmal Thursday night matchup a week and a half ago, racking up 54 yards on the ground and another 49 yards on three receptions. While I do think that the Broncos will be playing from behind at some point in this game, I think Nathaniel Hackett will also be looking to keep the ball on the ground and in the short passing game to keep his defense fresh and the game within reach. The Chargers will also be looking to get to Wilson, so I do think the screen game to Gordon and Mike Boone will play a big factor tonight.
Other Flex Options: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
DFS Value Plays
Los Angeles Chargers - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 26 points per game allowed, 11 sacks, six interceptions.
While I won't be mixing and matchup both offenses in the same lineups I'll have the Chargers defense in, I will be playing them quite a bit tonight. The Broncos have eclipsed 20 points scored in just one of their five games this season, and Russell Wilson has been prone to taking a lot of sacks as well as giving up stupid turnovers. In a Chargers-heavy lineup, I think their defense is a must-play.
Greg Dulcich - TE, $300 (DK), $5,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: N/A
- Individual Matchup: N/A
We're kind of shooting in the dark here, as there isn't 100% confirmation that Dulcich will in fact suit up for tonight's game. If he does, though, he's an excellent punt on tonight's slate. I was really hoping that Albert Okwuegbunam would take the reigns and establish himself as the TE1 before Dulcich returned to the lineup, but unfortunately, that wasn't the case. While I can't say for sure the third-round rookie will have an immediate impact, he's worth a shot at a minimum price on both sites.
Other Value Plays: Joshua Palmer, Latavius Murray, Brandon McManus, DeAndre Carter
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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