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The AFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills sets the stage for a showdown with high stakes: a trip to Kansas City for the AFC Championship. This game has an attractive Vegas total of 51.5 and a narrow spread favoring Baltimore by 1.5 points. We should get a competitive, potentially high-scoring matchup in this one.
DFS Showdown success comes down to nailing your Captain/MVP pick and uncovering value plays to round out a strong, balanced lineup. Let’s break down the top Captain/MVP options, Flex plays, and value picks for this highly anticipated matchup.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Ravens Divisional Playoffs DFS Showdown slate, which locks at 6:30 PM EST on January 19. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks.
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MVP/Captain: NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Lamar Jackson – BAL – QB (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)
Jackson’s dual-threat ability makes him the premier option in this showdown. He averages 245.4 passing yards and 24.2 rushing yards per game, offering unmatched upside.
Buffalo’s defense struggles against mobile quarterbacks, ranking 24th in pass EPA and allowing big plays on scrambles. With a 26.5 implied team total, Jackson should be involved in nearly every Ravens touchdown, whether by air or on the ground.
Jackson’s steep Captain price on Draftkings forces you to seek value in the Flex, but his rushing floor and ceiling make him a must-have in cash games. On FanDuel without a salary multiplier, Jackson is a clear MVP choice due to his high probability of scoring touchdowns and accumulating yardage through the air and on the ground.
Alternative Captain/MVP Scenario
Josh Allen – BUF – QB, (DK $17,100, FD $15,500)
Josh Allen is the heart and soul of Buffalo’s offense, and his versatility makes him a prime MVP choice. He's actually more expensive than Jackson on Fanduel, so he may be lower owned there and great for tournaments. He averages 219.5 passing yards and 22.5 rushing yards per game, but his real appeal lies in his knack for finding the end zone.
Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Allen’s dual-threat ability keeps defenses on their heels, and Baltimore’s 19th-ranked pass DvP suggests he’ll have plenty of opportunities to exploit mismatches downfield.
This matchup sets up perfectly for Allen to shine, especially if Buffalo takes an early lead or the game turns into a shootout. His connection with targets like Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid ensures he has a diverse arsenal to challenge Baltimore’s secondary. Add in his rushing potential, and Allen becomes the type of player who can rack up points in bunches, even in a tough matchup.
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Flex Plays: NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Derrick Henry – BAL – RB, (DK $11,000, FD $16,000)
Derrick Henry is a cornerstone of Baltimore’s offensive identity, and his usage is as predictable as it is dominant. Averaging 19.1 carries and a massive 113 rushing yards per game, Henry is set up to punish Buffalo’s tough run defense.
This matchup screams “volume meets opportunity,” as Baltimore will likely look to control the clock and wear down the Bills’ front. Henry’s involvement near the goal line also makes him a prime candidate for multiple touchdown opportunities, especially in a game with an implied total of 26.5 points for the Ravens.
If the Ravens stick to a ground-heavy game plan, Henry will be the centerpiece. His ceiling is bolstered by the chance to break a big run, and his floor is stabilized by his sheer workload. Whether Baltimore leads or keeps the game close, Henry is a core option.
Khalil Shakir – BUF – WR, (DK $8,000, FD $11,000)
Shakir has quietly become one of Allen’s most reliable targets, averaging 6.5 targets per game with a steady presence in the passing game. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled against wide receivers, ranking 20th in DvP, which gives Shakir a clear path to production.
He’s a mid-tier option with both volume and red-zone potential, making him an excellent fit in lineups that project Buffalo to be playing from behind or engaging in a back-and-forth shootout.
What makes Shakir especially appealing is his role as a safety valve for Allen. He’s not just a deep-shot threat but also a consistent producer who can rack up points through receptions and yards after the catch. In a game where Buffalo is expected to score 25 points, Shakir is a strong complementary piece in lineups built around Allen.
Mark Andrews – BAL – TE, (DK $6,600, FD $10,500)
Mark Andrews remains one of Jackson’s favorite weapons, and his 15% target share makes him a high-upside option in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense has been vulnerable to tight ends, ranking 21st in DvP, which opens the door for Andrews to exploit mismatches in the middle of the field.
His ability to dominate in the red zone makes him especially valuable in a game with playoff intensity, where Jackson is likely to lean on his most trusted target in critical moments.
Andrews also provides flexibility in lineup construction. His salary is reasonable, and his ceiling is tied directly to Jackson’s success. If Jackson has a big game, Andrews is almost certain to be part of it, whether it’s through a high target count or a key touchdown.
Value Plays: NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Nelson Agholor – BAL – WR, (DK $2,000, FD $7,000)
Nelson Agholor may not be a flashy option, but his role in the Ravens’ offense makes him a viable salary-saving play. With 41% route participation, Agholor has the chance to make an impact in a high-scoring game script. He’s the type of player who could deliver value with a single big play, especially if Buffalo’s secondary focuses on limiting Baltimore’s top receiving options.
In tournaments, Agholor is a great dart throw to differentiate lineups. His low price tag allows for flexibility in paying up for studs like Jackson or Henry, and he has just enough involvement to be a potential slate-breaking value.
Dalton Kincaid – BUF – TE, (DK $5,800, FD $10,000)
Dalton Kincaid has emerged as a key piece of Buffalo’s passing attack, averaging 5.5 targets per game with a 58% route participation rate. Baltimore’s 21st-ranked TE DvP provides a favorable matchup, making Kincaid a sneaky option for lineups looking to capitalize on Buffalo’s passing game. His involvement near the goal line adds touchdown upside, and his role in the offense gives him a stable floor.
Kincaid is especially appealing in lineups that feature Josh Allen as the Captain/MVP. He provides affordable exposure to Buffalo’s offense and offers the potential for significant upside if the Bills find themselves needing to pass heavily. His combination of affordability and involvement makes him one of the best value options on the slate.
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