RADIO
It's officially Week 1, RotoBallers! I can't believe football is back and I'm extremely excited for this upcoming season. Not only does my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, looking primed to make a serious run to the playoffs, but I'm also super excited for the weekly betting and DFS on the greatest sport in the world to be back. We'll start things off with the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosting this year's Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills to open up the season.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Rams NFL DFS showdown slate on September 8th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen (QB, $18,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD))
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 5,044 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
- 2021 Offensive Pass DVOA: 20.6% (13th), per Football Outsiders
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1.0% (6th), per Football Outsiders
We'll start off the year with Josh Allen at the captain/MVP spot. It's fitting too, as I'm writing this, Allen is the MVP favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook at +700. Allen is primed to have a big season, though gets a tough test in Week 1 against the defending champs. While opposing QB Matthew Stafford has the more favorable matchup in terms of DVOA, the Bills should keep a cleaner pocket for Allen, with a 25% pressure rate but just a 5.47% projected sack rate, according to my model. Partnered with his rushing upside, Allen is a clear top pick if you decide to pay up at your 1.5x spot.
Allen Robinson (WR, $9,300 (DK), $12,000 (FD))
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 66 targets, 38 receptions, 410 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 20.88% target rate, 12.12% red zone target rate, five end zone targets
- Individual Matchup (vs Taron Johnson): 13% targets per route, 54% catch rate, 0.18 fantasy points per route covered
Heading to the other side of the field, we'll be taking on somewhat of a "redemption" narrative. Robinson, who spent the previous for seasons in Chicago, now gets an opportunity to play with a quarterback that should be able to consistently get him the ball. While I'm more bearish than the field on Robinson's value in season-long fantasy drafts, I think he could set himself up for a phenomenal week one while Cooper Kupp draws a lot of defensive attention from the Bills' defense.
Other Captains/MVPs: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Gabriel Davis, James Cook
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DFS Flex Plays
Matthew Stafford (QB, $10,800 (DK), $15,500 (FD))
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 6,074 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.6% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -23% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
For our first flex play, I'll be looking to the other quarterback in this matchup, the reigning Super Bowl champion QB Matthew Stafford. It was awesome to see Stafford finally get to (and win) the big one, and now for the first time he'll have to defend his throne. Stafford is currently dealing with an elbow injury that "could be an issue all season" per NBC Sports Edge, but they're going to need him to perform early against this daunting Bills defense. I expect Rams HC Sean McVay to help Stafford work around his injury and while I prefer Josh Allen at the MVP spot, I'm sure that Stafford will be able to get the job done and manage a respectable floor in the flex spot.
Gabe Davis (WR, $7,200 (DK), $11,500 (FD))
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 76 targets, 45 receptions, 791 receiving yards, 11 receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 9.18% target rate, 15,22% red-zone target rate, 10 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Troy Hill): 15% target rate, 77% catch rate, 0.3 fantasy points per route covered.
I mentioned earlier how a lot of the season-long fantasy community is bearish on Rams WR Allen Robinson, the same can be said for Buffalo WR Gabriel Davis. If you look at his target rates from 2021, you'd be shocked at how high he's going in drafts, but it seems that positive regression seems inevitable from the third-year receiver. He's put up respectable numbers in his first two seasons, but with the departure of Cole Beasley and the continued improvement of QB Josh Allen, I'm projecting Davis to have a big night on Thursday as Jalen Ramsey and Stefon Diggs battle it out on the other side.
Other Flex Options: Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers, Stefon Diggs
DFS Value Plays
James Cook (RB, $2,800 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: No Stats
- 2021 Data: No Data.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 2.8% (9th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -18% (5th)
Speaking of guys who have been touted heavily in season-long fantasy leagues, many are saying that James Cook is up next in the conveyer belt of awesome Georgia running backs. Cook had himself an electric year for the National Champion Bulldogs, amassing 1,012 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns out of the backfield. While it's likely he'll start the year as "second-fiddle" to starter Devin Singletary, it appears that he's primed to make a big splash out of Buffalo's backfield, and we should jump on the opportunity to play him while he's as cheap as he is on both sites.
Matt Gay ($3,600 (DK), $9,000 FD))
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 44 field goals attempted, 40 field goals made, 59/60 PAT.
Who doesn't love a kicker on a showdown slate? When it was announced that this was the first game of the season, my mind started racing trying to determine what the potential game script would be. The 52.5-point total (FD Sportsbook) shows that Vegas seems to think that this one will be a shootout, and I tend to agree. This creates a solid floor for Gay, which is something that I'll be looking for out of my players this early in the season. However, there is a chance that this one becomes a defensive battle, which could open the door for both kickers in this game to end up in the optimal lineup. Regardless, I have no problems playing both kickers in this game, but I'm not so sure if I'll play both in the same lineup in tournaments.
Other Value Plays: Jamison Crowder, Tyler Bass, O.J. Howard
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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