RADIO
Welcome back and happy December, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 13 Thursday Night Football action! I obviously wasn't with you last Thursday due to there being three games, and with that, I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving! We'll now see two teams that played on the three-game Thanksgiving slate match-up tonight, as the Bills (8-3) head to Foxborough to take on the Patriots (6-5). With Damien Harris already ruled out of this one, we'll see how this affects our DFS lineups. Let's take a look!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Patriots NFL DFS showdown slate on December 1st. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $18,300 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,183 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 30.2% (3rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -20.4% (3rd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Josh Allen. Allen took a big step forward this week after dealing with an elbow injury about a month ago. Allen practiced in full on Monday for the first time since the injury. It's safe to say that Allen has had a relatively up-and-down career against the Patriots so far, but is coming off the AFC Wild Card game last season where he threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns against New England. While we can't expect a similar output from him tonight, I do think he'll play well enough to justify his expensive price tag on both sites.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $15,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 151 attempts, 680 rushing yards, 59 targets, 50 receptions, 359 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -13% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -22.3% (3rd), per Football Outsiders
Across the field, we have Rhamondre Stevenson. While Stevenson doesn't have a great matchup in terms of rushing the ball against the Bills defense that ranks 3rd in defensive DVOA against the run, he's slowly but surely becoming "matchup-proof" due to his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. I anticipate him being the focal point of the Patriots' offense tonight, and will likely be the Patriot with the most exposure for me.
Other Captains/MVPs: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Mac Jones
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DFS Flex Plays
Mac Jones - QB, $9,400 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,768 passing yards, six touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 2.9% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -8% (7th), per Football Outsiders
However, I can't ignore Mac Jones in this spot. Everyone knows the Bills are likely going to score points, and in order for the Patriots to keep up, they'll need to have Mac Jones build off of last week's performance. Jones had his best game of the 2022 campaign by far last Thursday, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns. I don't expect him to do anything crazy against this vaunted Bills defense, but perhaps the confidence boost from last week will be enough for him to move past the "Zappe" chants in New England.
Dawson Knox - TE, $6,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 42 targets, 33 receptions, 327 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jahlani Tavai): 11% targets per route, 73% catch rate, 0.15 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Dawson Knox due to his positive matchup, and relatively cheap price on a slate where we're going to have to pay up for some of the big guys. The Bills have a projected 11.54% DVOA when throwing to tight ends in this game, so I have to think that Knox is going to get some work. He also has a 39% chance of finding the end zone against the Patriots, something he's done three times in six games against them, including twice in that AFC Wild Card game last January.
Other Flex Options: Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jakobi Meyers
DFS Value Plays
Hunter Henry - TE, $4,800 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 34 targets, 23 receptions, 323 receiving yards, two touchdowns
- Individual Matchup (vs Tremaine Edmunds): 15% targets per route, 68% catch rate, 0.2 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
It's been a while since I've looked to go double tight end in a showdown, but here we are. Henry, along with Mac Jones, had himself a Thanksgiving against Minnesota last week, grabbing three of five targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. I don't have him logging production like that tonight, as my model projects him catching 2.95 of 4.4 targets and 26.62 yards, but with his price being so cheap on both sites he's an easy throw-in to grab some value on this slate.
Tyler Bass - K, $4,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 23 field goals made, 26 field goals attempted, 32 extra points made, 33 extra points attempted.
Last but not least, I'll take a look at Tyler Bass. Bass has been one of the best fantasy kickers in the league over the last couple of seasons, mostly due to volume with how often the Bills are putting up points. While it's entirely possible that the Bills go out and smash the Patriots, I think it's more likely that Bass has to salvage some points after a few Bills drives stall out, which he is more than capable of doing against a Patriots defense that has allowed 19 field goals on 21 attempts this season.
Other Value Plays: Nick Folk, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, James Cook
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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