RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have quite the matchup tonight as we see a pair of teams who are very familiar with each other go to battle tonight as the Buffalo Bills (5-3) head down to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals (4-3). These teams met in the 2022 AFC Playoffs, and now they'll meet again.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Bengals Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on November 5. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,165 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 36 carries, 189 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 39.65%
I'll start things off for this game with Josh Allen. Allen has a pretty strong matchup tonight, and he projects to 288.27 passing yards, 1.83 touchdowns, and 1.18 interceptions. He also projects to 33.84 rushing yards on 4.62 carries and 0.21 rushing touchdowns. My concern is that the Bengals project a 35.22% pressure rate and a 10.46% sack rate. I trust Allen and his ability to move around both in and out of the pocket to get the job done here, though, spreading the ball across the field in what should be a shootout.
Ja'Marr Chase - WR, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 85 targets, 60 receptions, 656 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
I'll take a look at Ja'Marr Chase next. I'll probably end up having more Chase at the 1.5x spot than anyone else, as he actually projects to be the highest-scoring player on this slate. He projects to 9.84 receptions on 10.66 targets for 138.02 yards and 0.94 touchdowns. He has the strongest matchup by far of any pass-catchers in this game, and it's no wonder why he'll be at the top of my list when building lineups for this showdown.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Burrow, Dalton Kincaid
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DFS Flex Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $10,200 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,513 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions, 20 carries, 57 rushing yards, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -3.42%
I'll take a look at Joe Burrow next. Burrow projects to 268.83 passing yards, 1.96 touchdowns, and 0.77 interceptions. The reason I'm not giving him the strongest look at the 1.5x spot is two-fold: one, the matchup really isn't there as shown by the projected DVOA; and the fact that while "coachspeak" says that Burrow is fully healthy, I'm not so sure about that. The Bills defensive line projects to pressure Burrow at a 30.22% clip and sack him at a 10.46% clip. With him not being able to move around in the pocket as much as he may need to, I won't have a ton of him in the 1.5x spot, but he's certainly still worth playing.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $6,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 34 targets, 30 receptions, 258 receiving yards, one touchdown.
Someone who is surely worth playing in this spot is Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid projects to 5.03 receptions on 6.21 targets for 57.61 yards and 0.36 touchdowns. Kincaid has been a really strong target for Josh Allen as of late -- catching 13 of 15 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown over these last two weeks and now he gets a really strong matchup. The Bengals bring in a 25.93% DVOA against tight ends this season, which ranks 29th in the league.
Other Flex Options: Tee Higgins, James Cook, Gabriel Davis
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Bass - K, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 11 field goals made, 14 field goals attempted, 25/25 extra points made/attempted.
I'll take a look at Tyler Bass next. I think the Bills end up scoring more than the Bengals here, and Bass may be at the forefront of this. I mentioned earlier that the Bengals will do a good job at getting pressure and sacking Josh Allen, but I don't believe that will stop them from getting down the field. In the event that the Bills have no issues moving the ball but get stymied in or near the red zone, I think Bass is a great play and could have himself a huge night.
Leonard Fournette - RB, $200 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: No stats.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 4.73%
I'll wrap things up with an absolute long-shot play with Leonard Fournette. Fournette signed with the Bills this past week and will likely make his debut for the team on Sunday Night Football. Fournette has been around for a while, and while he hasn't seen electric success as he was projected to out of college, it'd be a lie to say he hasn't been a good running back. Now, I don't have any projected stats for Fournette, but he's worth a shot at near-minimum prices on both sites tonight. Let's see if Lenny has any juice left.
Other Value Options: Evan McPherson, Latavius Murray, Tyler Boyd
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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