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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm still on cloud nine with football being back, and we're back at it again with some Week 5 Sunday Night Football DFS lineups. We had an absolute stinker of a football game on Thursday night, but we should have a fun divisional matchup tonight as the Bengals head into Baltimore to take on the Ravens. I'm expecting a high-scoring shootout, so let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on October 9th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,300 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 893 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, four interceptions, 316 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.1% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -7.6% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Lamar Jackson. Sure, he's the most expensive player on the slate, but for absolutely a good reason. Lamar has been the best fantasy football player in the league through the first four weeks and is surely on pace for a second MVP season. It's not necessarily an "easy" task carving up the Bengals' defense, but Lamar has faced worse early on this season and should be able to get the job done once again tonight as I'm predicting a shootout here.
Ja'Marr Chase - WR, $16,500 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 41 targets, 25 receptions, 293 yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Marlon Humphrey): 12% targets per route, 64% catch rate, 0.15 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Ja'Marr Chase. It's not controversial to say that Tee Higgins has been the superior of the two Bengals receivers so far this season. This can certainly be attributed to the fact that Chase is getting double-teamed, with teams placing safeties to protect over the top. However, the Baltimore secondary has had much trouble stopping any and all receivers on the year, and even with the return of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, I'm expecting Chase to have himself a big night.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews
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DFS Flex Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $10,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,099 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 2.4% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.7% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing Chase the ball will be Joe Burrow. Burrow has racked up the yardage you would expect of a stud like him but hasn't racked up the touchdowns expected, tossing just two touchdowns per game on average. I'm expecting that number to rise tonight, as the Bengals have a strong passing funnel, and as previously mentioned when speaking about Chase, the Ravens' secondary has struggled heavily this season.
Mark Andrews - TE, $9,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 36 targets, 24 receptions, 260 yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Logan Wilson): 14% targets per route, 64% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
We'll look at the top pass-catcher on the other side of the field here, tight end Mark Andrews. Andrews is having a fantastic season, dominating his way to a potential TE1 finish. He draws a strong matchup against Logan Wilson tonight, as well as coming in with a projected 32.35% DVOA. A great player in a great matchup, I rate Andrews as a must-play tonight, and I'll have shares of him in the 1.5x spot as well.
Other Flex Options: Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins
DFS Value Plays
Evan McPherson - K, $3,800 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 9/11 field goals made/attempted, 6/7 extra points made.
While I expect this game to be a shootout, with all of the top options on the slate extremely pricey, we'll have to come about some value somewhere. Enter Evan McPherson, one of the best kickers in the league. The second-year kicker McPherson has had a relatively slow start considering how great his rookie season was, and he's been active, with 14 kick attempts in just two games. I prefer him over Justin Tucker due to his slightly cheaper price, and I can certainly see the Bengals stalling a few times tonight.
Demarcus Robinson - WR, $2,800 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 10 targets, five receptions, 41 yards, one touchdown
- Individual Matchup (vs Chidobe Awuzie): 19% target rate, 41% catch rate, 0.18 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I feel like Demarcus Robinson is probably my favorite value play on the slate, and I don't really think it's close. The Ravens have a strong passing funnel, and while being a strictly passing offense isn't in their nature, that doesn't mean they can't be successful with it. While Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay are the most popular targets, I really like Robinson here against Chidobe Awuzie. He comes in with a projected DVOA of 55.25%, the highest among all pass-catchers on the slate.
Other Value Plays: Devin Duvernay, Justin Tucker
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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