RADIO
Happy Monday and Happy Halloween, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 8 has been successful so far. I had an awesome day yesterday, sweeping all the slates I played, cashing in both cash game lineups as well as a few 10x wins in tournaments. We had ourselves an interesting Monday Night Football game last week, as Justin Fields and the Bears took care of business against the Patriots. We'll now see how the Bengals operate without Ja'Marr Chase and how that affects our DFS lineups.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs Patriots NFL DFS showdown slate on October 31st. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,097 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 21.4% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 15% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Joe Burrow. It'll be interesting to see how the Bengals' offense operates without Ja'Marr Chase, as the stud wide receiver is out indefinitely with a hip injury. Nevertheless, the Bengals have a robust passing funnel projection for this game, with a projected passing DVOA of 28.41%. Even without Chase, I'll look for Burrow to get the ball to his pass-catchers like Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst in this showdown.
Nick Chubb - RB, $15,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 126 carries, 740 rushing yards, 14 targets, nine receptions, 67 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 13% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -10.6% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we have Nick Chubb. With the Browns potentially shopping Kareem Hunt before Tuesday's trade deadline, I have an inkling that we won't see him on the field very much tonight. That opens up the door for Chubb, who's taking the majority of attempts anyways (roughly a 65%/35% split). The Browns have a strong rushing funnel in this game, with a projected rushing DVOA of 6.07% in this showdown. Look for him to take the bulk of the carries and be a strong option in the 1.5x spots tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tee Higgins, Harrison Bryant, Joe Mixon
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DFS Flex Plays
Jacoby Brissett - QB, $9,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,584 passing yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, 130 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 13.7% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -8.8% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention Jacoby Brissett here, either. While the Browns have a rushing funnel lean in this matchup, the game script does lean towards them playing from behind and needing Brissett to use his arm to keep the Browns in the game. Similar to Burrow, Brissett will be missing a significant pass-catcher, David Njoku, in this one. Regardless, I'll look for Brissett to get the ball in the hands of Amari Cooper and company, and as long as he limits the turnovers, I have no issues playing him here.
Tee Higgins - WR, $8,000 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 44 targets, 31 receptions, 455 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Denzel Ward): 16% targets per route, 64% catch rate, 0.34 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I mentioned when speaking about Burrow how I'm curious about how the Bengals' offense will move without Chase. Higgins has been the biggest beneficiary of Chase being ON the field, as teams would double up on Chase with safety help overtop, leaving Higgins in one-on-one matchups. Now that Higgins is "the guy" in that offense, it'll be interesting to see how he does tonight. However, with the target floor and his ability after the catch, it's just too tough to fade him in this one.
Other Flex Options: Amari Cooper, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon
DFS Value Plays
Hayden Hurst - TE, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 39 targets, 29 receptions, 226 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah): 15% targets per route, 74% catch rate, 0.31 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While Higgins certainly benefitted with Chase on the field, I believe the biggest beneficiary with Chase off the field will be Hayden Hurst. Hurst should see his target rate go up without Chase (rightfully) sopping up so many targets, and with defenses focused on Tee Higgins on the outside, I'll look for Hurst and Tyler Boyd to open up the middle of the field. The Bengals have a projected passing DVOA of 7.27% to the tight end spot tonight, and Hurst should be a reliable safety blanket for Joe Burrow as the Browns inevitably get pressure.
Donovan Peoples-Jones - WR, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 42 targets, 26 receptions, 336 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Eli Apple): 12% target per route, 66% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Finally, I'll take a look at "DPJ" to round up tonight's slate. I'm not overthinking this one, as Peoples-Jones is just too cheap to not be considered here. In a showdown slate with a lot of top-heavy talent in terms of price, we have to make up value somewhere, so I'll look to a guy who averages six targets per game. Not to mention the Browns have a projected passing DVOA of 14.27% to their "WR2" in this one, the highest among all Cleveland pass-catchers.
Other Value Plays: Harrison Bryant, D'Ernest Johnson, Mike Thomas
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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