RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 7 has been successful so far. I had an awesome day yesterday, especially considering the Phillies were able to clinch their first World Series berth since 2009! We have what I imagine will probably be a snoozer of a Monday Night Football game tonight, though, as the Bears will head up to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. It appears that Mac Jones will return to the lineup in tonight's game, so let's break it down.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs Patriots NFL DFS showdown slate on October 24th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Mac Jones - QB, $14,700 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 786 passing yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 8.8% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 6.1% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off the slate with the aforementioned Mac Jones. Bailey Zappe was pretty darn good while Jones was out with an injury, so it'll be interesting to see how this one plays out. Jones has had a difficult start to his 2022 campaign, but he'll look to bounce back tonight and create a new narrative for the rest of his season against the Bears. In what should be a low-scoring slate, I'll want to get a decent amount of exposure to both quarterbacks "just in case", especially considering they're both relatively cheap.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $16,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 87 carries, 448 rushing yards, 21 targets, 17 receptions, 86 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 1.3% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 3% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
If I'm not going quarterback at the captain spot though, I'll be looking at Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson has stepped up and been very good after coming into the season with a lot of redraft hype. I'll tread with caution given the fact my model is still showing a relative Stevenson/Harris 50/50 split, but Stevenson's big play ability and ability to catch passes out of the back field make him a quality 1.5x option in what should be a low-scoring slate.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Fields, Jakobi Meyers, Tyquan Thornton
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Fields - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 869 passing yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions, 282 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -24.6% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -16.8% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll look at Justin Fields once again this week. I wrote Fields up last week and despite the snooze-fest of a game last Thursday night, Fields took care of business, at least from a fantasy perspective. A lot of that was due to his 88 yards on the ground, which is primarily the reason I'll be playing him tonight. The Patriots should be able to work through the tattered Chicago offensive line, whom I have projected for allowing a pressure rate of 38%. With a projection of 1.43 second-level yards and 0.92 open field yards per play, Fields as well as David Montgomery are the only two Bears that I'm legitimately interested in playing tonight.
Tyquan Thornton - WR, $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Eight targets, six receptions, 44 receiving yards, three carries, 18 rushing yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
A bit of a sleeper play here as I'll be looking at Tyquan Thornton as my second flex play tonight. I certainly prefer this play on FanDuel as more of a "value" play, considering that Thornton only played in roughly 57% of snaps for the Patriots last Sunday. What Thornton did with those snaps was extremely impressive though, logging 53 yards and two touchdowns on seven touches. In a game where we may be dry on points, both from real-life and fantasy aspects, I'll shoot for the upside with Thornton and see if he can repeat some of last week's magic.
Other Flex Options: David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Darnell Mooney
DFS Value Plays
New England Patriots - D/ST, $5,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 17.83 points per game allowed, 17 sacks, six interceptions, six fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns.
As you've noticed, I'm rather heavy on the Patriots here and not so much on the Bears. After allowing 37 points to the Ravens back in Week 3, the Patriots' defense has bounced back, allowing just 42 points across their last three games. They'll now take on a turnover-prone Bears offense that is scoring just 15.5 points per game. While their price is a bit high, it is indicative of how well Bill Belicheck's defense has played this season, and I will have a ton of exposure to them tonight.
Hunter Henry - TE, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 21 targets, 13 receptions, 156 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Roquan Smith): 12% target per route, 55% catch rate, 0.13 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Finally, I'll talk about Hunter Henry. This one makes me a bit nervous, as I'm sure Hunter Henry would actually prefer Bailey Zappe to be under center tonight. In three games with Zappe at quarterback, Henry logged in 10 of 16 targets for 128 yards in a touchdown. He put up numbers nowhere close to that before Jones went down with his injury, but I'll hope that Jones and Henry get that rapport from 2021 going once again where he caught 50 passes for 603 yards and nine touchdowns.
Other Value Plays: Cairo Santos, Dante Pettis, Nick Folk
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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