RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have quite an interesting showdown tonight as Division 2 rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears (2-5) head out to the City of Angels to take on Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and the Chargers (2-4). While both of these teams have had exciting moments throughout the season to this point, neither team has been able to find the wins that come with it. Let's see how this one breaks down.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs. Chargers Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 29. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $18,000 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,591 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions, 28 carries, 81 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 41.9%
I want to start this game off with Justin Herbert, as I think he has a massive night tonight. My model projects him to throw the ball 39.56 times for 287.02 yards and 2.51 touchdowns. While I think that this game would soar over the total if Justin Fields was playing, the game script definitely pulls Herbert's ceiling down a little bit. However, I think with the passing funnel my model shows and the fact that Tyson Bagent should be able to at least "keep up" against this Chargers defense, there's no doubt that Herbert is the play.
Keenan Allen - WR, $17,700 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 64 targets, 46 receptions, 574 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
Ironically enough, my second favorite 1.5x guy is the guy I want to correlate most with my top guy. You can't play one without the other, for all the reasons aforementioned when talking about Justin Herbert. Allen will once again be Herbert's top target, catching 8.21 of his 10.54 targets for 89.45 yards and 0.67 touchdowns. He also draws a really solid matchup here, as the Bears struggle with both WR1s and guys on the right side, where Allen is projected to line up 65.6% of the time.
Other Captains/MVPs: Roschon Johnson, Tyson Bagent, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer
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DFS Flex Plays
Tyson Bagent - QB, $9,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 245 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, five carries, 28 rushing yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 0.71%
I'll take a look at Tyson Bagent here as well. I think Bagent is a very cool story, coming from a Division 2 school all the way into the show and actually playing very well, particularly in a 30-12 victory over Las Vegas last week. Today he projects to 234.58 passing yards and 1.16 touchdowns, but adds in somewhat of an element on the ground as he projects to 0.27 rushing touchdowns. There's a lean towards a rushing funnel for the Bears, but if the Chargers put up points as I project, it'll be tough for the Bears to hang around by exclusively running the football.
Roschon Johnson - RB $6,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 25 carries, 122 rushing yards, 12 targets, 11 receptions, 58 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 2.73%
In regards to the run game, I'll take a stab at Roschon Johnson over D'Onta Foreman here. They project roughly the same amount of carries, but I'll be looking at Johnson in his contributions to the passing game. My model projects Johnson to run the ball 9.25 times for 31.96 yards and 0.25 touchdowns while adding 3.44 receptions for 28.39 yards and 0.13 receiving touchdowns. Tyson Bagent should see a ton of pressure in this one, so I'll expect Johnson to get things moving out in space.
Other Flex Options: Austin Ekeler, D'Onta Foreman, D.J. Moore
DFS Value Plays
Gerald Everett - TE, $5,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 23 targets, 19 receptions, 149 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
I'll take a look at an old reliable value play in Gerald Everett. Even if he doesn't always come through, he seems to always have a strong matchup. Everett projects to 3.7 receptions on just 3.71 targets for 30.68 receiving yards and 0.24 touchdowns. It's not much, but it's honest work against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in receptions allowed to tight ends this season (6.43).
Darnell Mooney - WR, $4,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 23 targets, 14 receptions, 184 receiving yards, one touchdown.
I'll wrap things up with Darnell Mooney. Mooney has had a quiet "start" to the season, mostly due to a usage increase with D.J. Moore coming to town. Mooney tonight projects to 3.09 receptions on 4.5 targets for 38.53 yards and 0.18 touchdowns. He's considered the WR2 now in Chicago, but the Chargers bring in a 41.04% DVOA against WR2s. They also struggle against receivers who line up on the right side, where Mooney lines up 74% of the time.
Other Value Options: Cole Kmet, Cameron Dicker
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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