RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a great game ahead of us on Sunday in the NFC Conference Championship as the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) head into Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). It's not as often as we think that the two top teams in a conference end up meeting in the conference championship, and I think we're in for a fun one here. Being an Eagles fan myself, I can't hold back my total excitement for this game. However, I'll break this down objectively as I try to win you some big money in this showdown slate. Let's take a look!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Eagles NFC Conference Championship NFL DFS showdown slate on January 29th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $16,500 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,855 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 794 rushing yards, and 14 rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.9% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13.3% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start this slate off with Jalen Hurts. There were a lot of questions surrounding Hurts prior to the Divisional Round game against the Giants, from his health to how he would play in his first playoff game. Well, he answered those questions very loud way and came out firing, moving the ball down the field with ease early and often. The Giants' defense is certainly not the 49ers' defense, but in this tough matchup, there are some advantages for Philly. San Francisco struggles on passes deep down the field, and I'll also look for the Eagles to run a ton of RPOs to try to take Nick Bosa out of plays. My model projects Hurts for 256.17 passing yards and 1.51 passing touchdowns while adding 42.85 rushing yards and a 48% chance of scoring a rushing touchdown.
George Kittle - TE, $11,700 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 93 targets, 87 receptions, 897 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Kyzir White): 14% target rate, 74% catch rate, and 0.2 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Next, as per usual on a 49ers showdown, I have to take a look at George Kittle. While the Eagles' pass defense is stout, given they ranked first in the league in defensive DVOA against the pass, they do have somewhat of a "hole" in the middle of the field. This opens the door up for Kittle, as I'm sure Kyle Shanahan will look to attack linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White in the intermediate passing game. My model projects Kittle for 3.98 receptions on 5.38 targets for 50.92 yards and a 25% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
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DFS Flex Plays
Christian McCaffery - RB, $11,400 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 269 rushing attempts, 1,293 rushing yards, 118 targets, 93 receptions, 780 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -0.5% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -1.9% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
I'll take a look at a pair of running backs in my flex plays, starting with Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey comes into this one slightly banged up, dealing with a calf issue. While he didn't practice much this week, there is certainly no doubt he will play and will likely be a big part of the 49ers' offensive plan. I believe that the Eagles' struggles against the run are a bit overblown, despite the -1.9% DVOA, but I have no doubt that Kyle Shanahan will scheme things up to get CMC in space. My model projects him to run the ball 11.44 times for 51.72 yards while adding 4.4 receptions on 5.2 targets for 35.63 yards and a 70% chance of finding the end zone.
Miles Sanders - RB, $6,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 276 rushing attempts, 1,359 rushing yards, 26 targets, 20 receptions, 78 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 15.4% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -23.6% (second), per Football Outsiders.
A bit of interesting play here. This is a strength versus strength matchup, as shown in the DVOAs. While Kenneth Gainwell showed that he can be a big part of the Eagles' offense in terms of running the football, pass blocking, and catching passes out of the backfield, I think this opens up the opportunity to grab Miles Sanders in a low-ownership spot. I mentioned earlier when talking about Hurts that I believe the Eagles will look to run RPOs in an effort to slow Nick Bosa down, I'll look to that as well as the fact that San Francisco relatively struggles against inside zone runs to prop Sanders up higher on my list of players to target on this slate. My model projects him for just 42.99 yards on the ground, 8.78 yards in the passing game, and a 23% chance of scoring a touchdown, but I believe he can do much more than that in this one.
Other Flex Options: A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, Brock Purdy
DFS Value Plays
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, $5,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 123 targets, 83 receptions, 1,114 yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. James Bradberry): 13% target rate, 46% catch rate, and 0.15 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at a pair of pass catchers in the value section of this article, starting with Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk had a solid bounce-back campaign after a quiet 2021-22 season, and it is a bit goofy in my opinion that he's this cheap on DraftKings. While the matchup against the arguable best cornerback trio in the league (Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox) is not an easy one by any stretch of the imagination, I think Aiyuk will do enough to hit value at his price point. My model projects Aiyuk for 3.97 receptions on 6.4 targets for 52.84 yards and a 38% chance of finding the end zone.
Quez Watkins - WR, $1,800 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 51 targets, 33 receptions, 354 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jimmie Ward): 20% target rate, 81% catch rate, and 0.36 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll wrap things up on this game with Quez Watkins. Watkins had seen his role in the Eagles' offense decrease as the regular season wound down, and was actually out-snapped by Zach Pascal in the Divisional Round against the Giants. With that said, I expect him to play some big snaps today. The 49ers' defense is great, but it is fallible, especially on deep passes down the field. I have to think the Eagles will try to test that theory and look for shot plays early and often, and I believe Quez Watkins will play a big role in that. My model projects Watkins for just 2.11 receptions on 2.93 targets for 27.1 yards and a 16% chance of scoring a touchdown, but all it takes is one bomb down the field (not dissimilar to his 91-yard reception against the Niners last season) for him to hit value on both sites.
Other Value Plays: Jake Elliott, Robbie Gould, Kyle Juszczyk
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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