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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a great game ahead of us on Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) and the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) meet out in Glendale, Arizona for Super Bowl LVII. These two teams have dominated their respective conferences for the majority of the season, and now we get to see them duke it out for NFL supremacy. As an Eagles fan myself, I'm absolutely stoked for this matchup, and while I hope to see the Birds win their second Super Bowl, I know this will be an excellent matchup either way.
We've been pretty successful with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel for the Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl NFL DFS showdown slate on February 12th. You can also check out our DraftKings Super Bowl NFL DFS picks as well. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,000
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,976 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 833 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.9% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -2.3% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off this slate with Jalen Hurts. As far as FanDuel goes, I'm not sure I will be placing anyone other than the two quarterbacks in the MVP slot. Perhaps Travis Kelce, Miles Sanders, and A.J. Brown, but I really think this game comes down to the two signal callers. Hurts has a slightly better matchup here, and my model projects him to throw for 247.07 yards and 2.03 touchdowns while adding 55.99 rushing yards and a 64% chance of finding the end zone on the ground. Hurts's running ability is what makes the difference here for me from a fantasy perspective, and that's why I mentioned him first.
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $17,500
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 5,771 passing yards, 45 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 374 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 41.1% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -15.5% (first), per Football Outsiders.
So I've made the case for Jalen Hurts, and now I'll make my case for Patrick Mahomes: he's Patrick Mahomes. Jokes aside, if you look at the records here, this is a matchup of heavyweight teams. While the Eagles have a stacked roster that's probably the best in the league, the Chiefs have... Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs win their second Super Bowl in the Mahomes era, he will no doubt be the biggest reason. Despite multiple pass-catchers banged up and injured for this one, as well as a very tough matchup against the Eagles' number-one-ranked pass defense, I still expect him to put on a show. My model projects Mahomes to throw for 297.8 yards and 2.21 touchdowns while adding 22.86 yards and an 18% chance of scoring a touchdown on the ground.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, Miles Sanders
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DFS Flex Plays
Travis Kelce - TE, $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 177 targets, 131 receptions, 1,014 yards, and 15 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Kyzir White): 14% target rate, 74% catch rate, and 0.2 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Okay, I may have oversold the fact that the Chiefs just have Patrick Mahomes. This is the "Kelce Bowl," isn't it? While I expect both of the "All-Pro" Kelces to have a great game, I can only write one of them up. Not only is Travis Kelce the best pass-catching option for the Chiefs, but he's also in a prime matchup against the Eagles' middle of the field. While Chauncey Gardner-Johnson may give him some problems, I imagine that Andy Reid will scheme things up in order to get Kelce in space against Eagles linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. My model projects Kelce to catch 7.03 of 10.17 targets for 82.01 receiving yards and a 54% chance of finding the end zone.
A.J. Brown - WR, $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 159 targets, 95 receptions, 1,546 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jaylen Watson): 16% target rate, 65% catch rate, and 0.26 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at A.J. Brown. This will be the second time Brown will face the Chiefs in the playoffs, the first coming in 2020 when Brown had three receptions for 51 yards on six targets. That was of course with the Titans, and now Brown finally gets his shot in the big game. Brown has the best matchup among all wide receivers in this matchup, and I'm expecting a big game from him. My model projects him for 5.15 receptions on 8.3 targets for 72.38 yards and a 50% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Miles Sanders, Jerick McKinnon, Dallas Goedert, JuJu Smith-Schuster
DFS Value Plays
Kenneth Gainwell - RB, $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 79 attempts, 400 rushing yards, 34 targets, 26 receptions, 204 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 15.4% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -6.9% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
When looking at value guys, I have to start with Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell has been the "unsung hero" of the Eagles' postseason so far. In their first two playoff games, Gainwell carried the ball 26 times for 160 yards and a touchdown and has caught three of five targets for 35 yards. I'll be on both Gainwell and Miles Sanders in this showdown, and I'm thinking if the Eagles are able to manage an early lead, they could just sit on the ball and run it up and down the field with these two. My model projects Gainwell for just 14.24 yards on 2.53 carries and 2.12 receptions on 2.46 targets for 16.43 yards, with a 10% chance of scoring a touchdown. I strongly disagree with the model here, and I'm expecting a huge game from Gainwell.
Noah Gray - TE, $5,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 37 targets, 30 receptions, 330 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
I have to take a look at the "one guy" for this Super Bowl. There always seems to be one, and in this one, my guess will be Noah Gray. Here's why: the Eagles like to run 5-2 fronts when facing the threat of the run. While I don't anticipate the Chiefs running the ball a ton, they have run a bunch of their offense this season in two or three tight end sets. I expect the Eagles to try and combat this with a 5-2 front, which opens the door for play-action passes and multiple Noah Gray targets. Gray projects to just 1.37 receptions on 1.83 targets for 13.05 receiving yards and just a 4% chance of finding an end zone, but it won't take much for Gray to hit value at this price, so I'll take my chances.
Other Value Plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Jack Stoll, Harrison Butker
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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