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There is no need to waste time preparing for the NFL DFS slate by waiting until the end of the week. We're now diving into some data to get a head start on which teams we should and shouldn't target.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 13. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 6 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 6, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 6: Main Slate Only
- Ravens - 28.5
- Eagles - 27.5
- Packers - 27.5
- Lions - 27.5
- Falcons - 27.5
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Commanders- 31
- Ravens - 29.4
- Bills - 28.4
- Bengals - 28
- Saints - 28
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Chargers- 12.5
- Broncos - 14.6
- Steelers- 14.6
- Vikings - 15.2
- Bears - 17
Week 6 has some heavy-hitting matchups on Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens lead the way with an implied team total of 28.5 points. There is a four-way tie with the implied team total of 27.5 between the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and the Atlanta Falcons. The ownership could be very spread out on Sunday.
The Eagles will be at full health it looks like as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both projected to return to the lineup. The offense could use them back and could make them a nice trio with Jalen Hurts to stack. Kirk Cousins has the Falcons looking scary and they could be an underowned stack. With four good offenses being at the 27.5 implied team total, many may look elsewhere to stack.
ONLY LAMAR. WOW.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/KenO7criwG— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Week 6 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Houston (1) vs. New England (26)
- Dallas (2) vs. Detroit (27)
- Atlanta (6) vs. Carolina (21)
- Green Bay (9) vs. Arizona (18)
- Washington (14) vs. Baltimore (31)
The stacks that people will be able to get on Sunday are going to make this a very interesting slate. All top-5 teams when it comes to passing offense versus passing defense have dangerous weapons. The Houston Texans will most likely be the chalkiest of the five facing the New England Patriots.
The Dallas Cowboys could have a shootout on their hands while facing the Detroit Lions, which is similar to the Washington Commanders facing off against the Baltimore Ravens. Two game stacks that could be worth having some good exposure to.
The Atlanta Falcons going up against the Carolina Panthers could be another chalk-filled spot but it could be on the lower end of chalk stacks. With Houston and Dallas leading the way, the Falcons remain one of my top-stacked options.
UNREAL 🤯
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/JPc7jmOmWk
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 6, 2024
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Baltimore (1) vs. Washington (22)
- Green Bay (3) vs. Arizona (28)
- Philadelphia (5) vs. Cleveland (25)
- Detroit (6) vs. Dallas (24)
- New Orleans (7) vs. Tampa Bay (16)
We get five of the top 10 rushing offenses this Sunday and all have great matchups. The no-brainer call here is Derrick Henry and while he may be chalk, it's chalk you do not pass up. It was a slow start for the Lamar Jackson and Henry combo to get going. However, not many teams are going to be able to stop them. The Ravens running back should be in the majority of lineups.
Josh Jacobs has another solid matchup coming his way, facing off against the Arizona Cardinals. They are allowing 147.8 rushing yards per game and Jacobs opens up the Packers offense when he gets rolling. Also, the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should be able to get going against the Dallas running defense.
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Tampa Bay (Carr), Baltimore (Daniels), Carolina (Cousins), Washington (Jackson), Detroit (Prescott)
RB - Carolina (Robinson), Las Vegas (Harris), Dallas (Gibbs/Montgomery), Indianapolis (Pollard/Spears), New England (Mixon/Akers)
WR - Detroit (Lamb), Baltimore (McLaurin), Philadelphia (Cooper), Tampa Bay (Olave), Washington (Flowers)
TE - Indianapolis (Okonkwo), Baltimore (Ertz), Carolina (Pitts), Green Bay (McBride), Denver (Dissly)
DEF - NE (HOU), TEN (IND), LV (PIT), CLE (PHI), CAR (ATL)
Week 6 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.2K vs. $7K)
- Jahmyr Gibbs ($7K vs. $7.8K)
- Jayden Reed ($7.7K vs. $7K)
- Terry McLaurin ($6.8K vs. $6.4K)
- Jared Goff ($7.7K vs. $6.4K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- David Montgomery ($6.5K vs. $7.9K)
- Najee Harris ($5.8K vs. $7.2K)
- Kirk Cousins ($6.2K vs. $7.4K)
- Tank Dell ($6.2K vs. $6.7K)
- DeVonta Smith ($6.8K vs. $7.3K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Daniels - McLaurin ($13.7K, $15.5K)
- Stroud - Diggs ($14.4K, $16.2K)
- Cousins - London ($12.9K, $14.4K)
- Goff - Williams ($12.2K, $14K)
- Love - Reed ($13.6K, $16.2K)
- Mayfield - Godwin ($13.4K, $15.4K)
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($7.3K, $8.7K)
- Bo Nix ($5.4K, $6.7K)
- Drake Maye ($5K, $6K)
- Bucky Irving ($5.4K, $5.7K)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.2K, $7K)
- Ladd McConkey ($4.9K, $5.8K)
- Adonai Mitchell ($3.9K, $5K)
- Luke McCaffrey ($3.7K, $4.5K)
- Brock Bowers ($6K, $6.7K)
Alright, that's it for Week 6 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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