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Week 5 is already here for the NFL season and it has been a wild ride. We're going to dive in and get ahead of the crowd by looking at all of the data.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 6. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 5 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 5, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 5: Main Slate Only
- 49ers - 28.5
- Ravens - 26.5
- Jaguars - 24.5
- Packers - 24.5
- Bears/Bengals/Bills/Commanders/Texans- 23.25
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Saints - 31.8
- Bills - 30.5
- Commanders- 30.3
- Vikings- 29
- Ravens - 26.5
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Chargers- 12.5
- Steelers - 13.3
- Broncos- 13.8
- Seahawks - 14.3
- Vikings - 14.8
The San Francisco 49ers offense is back to being healthy (minus Christian McCaffrey) and now they come into Week 5 with the highest team total of 28.5 points. They'll face off against the Arizona Cardinals in a possible shoot-out.
The Baltimore Ravens should continue finding their true identity with another solid matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Derrick Henry is coming from a massive game and will bring in a lot of ownership. Henry will be chalk that you don't want to miss out on.
DERRICK HENRY TO THE HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!
Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/rRDLQvKh8P
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024
Week 5 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the small sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- San Francisco (1) vs. Arizona (18)
- Seattle (4) vs. N.Y. Giants (14)
- Cincinnati (6) vs. Baltimore (30)
- Green Bay (7) vs. L.A. Rams (22)
- L.A. Rams (8) vs. Green Bay (25)
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off of a tough loss against the Detroit Lions. Luckily for them, they now get the New York Giants. With Kenneth Walker III back, the Seahawks offense looks dangerous and could be a sneaky stack for Week 5.
We already mentioned the high-powered Baltimore offense but the team on the opposite side, the Cincinnati Bengals, is one to look at. Since Tee Higgins returned in Week 3, the offense seems to be flowing smoothly.
This flip from Kenneth Walker III was unreal 😳 #SEAvsDET | ABC, ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/Yca5oeMCvt
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 1, 2024
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Baltimore (1) vs. Cincinnati (25)
- Green Bay (2) vs. L.A. Rams (32)
- Washington (3) vs. Cleveland (18)
- San Francisco (8) vs. Arizona (28)
- Jacksonville (13) vs. Indianapolis (31)
The one team that stands out on this list is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The offense looks clueless but Travis Etienne Jr. has been somewhat consistent. He had a poor outing in Week 4 versus the Houston Texans but this should be a good bounce-back spot. You may also get lower ownership with him.
The one team you should have a piece of is going to be the Washington Commanders. Brian Robinson Jr. may have the backfield to himself once again. We'll have to monitor the Austin Ekeler updates throughout the week. However, a good amount of exposure to Robinson Jr. may not be a bad thing.
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Jacksonville (Richardson/Flacco), Indianapolis (Lawrence), Washington (Watson), Arizona (Purdy), L.A. Rams (Love)
RB - Buffalo (Mixon/Akers), Carolina (Swift), L.A. Rams (Jacobs), Miami (Stevenson), Jacksonville (Taylor)
WR - Washington (Jeudy), Jacksonville (Pittman Jr.), New England (Hill), L.A. Rams (Reed), Green Bay (Atwell)
TE - Baltimore (All Jr.), Indianapolis (Strange), Carolina (Kmet), Green Bay (Parkinson), L.A. Rams (Kraft)
DEF - NE (MIA), LV (DEN), CLE (WAS), JAX (IND), NYG (SEA)
The Indianapolis Colts could be a solid stack to target as the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing solid fantasy points across the board. Now, this relies mainly on whether Anthony Richardson plays. Joe Flacco was able to get the job done when he came in during Week 4 but can he do it again?
Both sides of the football in the Green Bay Packers versus the Los Angeles Rams game stand out when looking at DvP. It could make for a solid game stack that leans to the Packers' side.
Week 5 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.4K vs. $7.5K)
- Rome Odunze ($5.6K vs. $5.3K)
- Kenneth Walker III ($7.4K vs. $6.8K)
- Josh Jacobs ($7K vs. $6.4K)
- Joe Burrow ($7.8K vs. $6.4K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Malik Nabers ($7.3K vs. $8.1K)
- Xavier Legette ($5.1K vs. $6K)
- Brian Robinson Jr. ($6.6K vs. $7.7K)
- Erick All Jr. ($2.7K vs. $4.4K)
- Jayden Reed ($6.5K vs. $7.2K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Daniels - McLaurin ($12.9K, $15.4K)
- Love - Reed ($13K, $15.4K)
- Purdy - Deebo ($13K, $15.7K)
- Watson - Jeudy ($10.5K, $12.8K)
- Burrow - Chase ($14.4K, $17.1K)
- Smith - Metcalf ($12.9K, $15.6K)
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($6.8K, $8.7K)
- Caleb Williams ($5.8K, $7.2K)
- Bo Nix ($5K, $6.6k)
- Tank Bigsby ($5.9K, $5.8K)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.5K, $7.4K)
- Malik Nabers($7.3K, $8.1K)
- Brian Thomas Jr. ($5.9K, $6.3K)
- Rome Odunze ($5.3K, $5.6K)
- Xavier Legette ($5.1K, $6K)
- Keon Coleman ($4.7K, $5.4K)
- Brock Bowers ($5.5K, $6.3K)
- Erick All Jr. ($2.7K, $4.4K)
Alright, that's it for Week 5 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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