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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun Sunday Night Football matchup tonight as Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (7-1) head south to take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (6-3). This feels like a season-defining game for the banged-up Texans, though it’ll be a tough test against what I believe is the best team in football. Let’s see how it plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. Texans Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on November 10th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, $16,500 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 60 targets, 48 receptions, 464 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -1.3%
I’ll start things off with Amon-Ra St. Brown. As a season-long fantasy owner of St. Brown, I can appreciate his efficiency, but I am growing frustrated with his volume. For a guy who’s caught 27 straight targets dating back to Week 4, I’d like to see him get the ball more. Nevertheless, he’s had no problem finding the end zone, scoring a touchdown in his last four games.
The last time Jared Goff threw an incomplete pass targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown was Week 3. 🤯#OnePride pic.twitter.com/WcE91wfIzB
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 10, 2024
Tonight, my model projects St. Brown to catch 6.87 of his 9.07 targets for 76.3 yards and 0.69 touchdowns. He’s rightfully the most expensive player on the slate, and he’ll be my top option in the 1.5x spot on both sites.
Tank Dell - WR, $13,200 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 47 targets, 30 receptions, 355 yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -5.7%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at Tank Dell next. Dell is seemingly the “last man standing” right now in the Texans wide receiver room, and he made it count last week, catching six of his nine targets for 126 yards against New York.
Tank Dell (back) expected to play Week 10, per @AaronWilson_NFL.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 9, 2024
My model projects Dell to see 10.04 targets tonight, catching 6.58 for 85.84 yards and 0.43 touchdowns. He may also see some work running the ball, but he’s in a prime matchup, and if this game turns into a shootout, we should see quite a lot of Dell.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jared Goff, Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jameson Williams - WR, $6,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 30 targets, 17 receptions, 361 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 2.8%
I’ll start off my flex plays with Jameson Williams. Williams has been the dictionary definition of a “boom or bust” type of player, but it’s apparent that he’s taken a step forward this year. There’s much to be said about Williams’s decisions off the field, but that’s a conversation for another time.
My model projects Williams to catch 4.3 of his 6.7 targets for 68.02 yards and 0.36 touchdowns tonight. That’s a solid projection for a player like Williams, especially when you know he has the upside of a 60+ yard touchdown on any given play.
Joe Mixon - RB, $10,800 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 126 rushing attempts, 609 rushing yards, 20 targets, 14 receptions, 115 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -16.55%
I’ll look at Joe Mixon next. Mixon has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners this season despite missing three games with an ankle injury. Since returning in Week 6, Mixon has turned out four straight 100+ yard rushing games and has logged at least 24 carries in his last three games.
Tonight, my model projects Mixon to rush 18.29 times for 79.55 yards while adding 2.45 receptions on 3.3 targets for 17.26 yards and 0.61 total touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Ka'imi Fairbairn - K, $5,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21/25 field goals made/attempted, 18/18 extra points made/attempted, 10 50+ yard field goals.
I’ll start my value plays off with Ka’imi Fairbairn, a relatively safe choice in this matchup. This game could either be a grind-it-out type of defensive showdown or an exciting shootout, with both offenses leaving it all out on the field. Fairbairn should provide a solid floor in either game script. Given his ten 50+ field goals in nine games this season, he provides a solid ceiling as well.
Xavier Hutchinson - WR, $4,600 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 targets, five receptions, 64 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: -6.3%
Perhaps people got ahead of themselves last week with Xavier Hutchinson, as the 2023 sixth-round pick didn’t catch any of his three targets against the Jets. There is reason for optimism with Hutchinson, though, as he led all Texans receivers last week with 59.
Tonight, my model projects Hutchinson to catch 3.09 of his 5.4 targets for 43.67 yards and 0.15 touchdowns. It’s not much, but Hutchinson provides the most upside of all value options.
Other Value Options: Lions D/ST, Texans D/ST, Tim Patrick
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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