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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an important Sunday Night Football matchup as Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) head north to Pittsburgh to take on Justin Fields and the Steelers (3-1). Both teams are looking for a win and will be a bit shorthanded on the offensive side of the ball, so let's see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Steelers vs. Cowboys Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 6th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Najee Harris - RB, $13,200 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 68 rushing attempts, 228 rushing yards, 15 targets, 10 receptions, 84 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 5.94%
I'll start things off with Najee Harris. Through four weeks of the season, Harris has led a running back room that features himself, Jaylen Warren, and Cordarrelle Patterson. That won't necessarily be the case in Week 5, as Warren and Patterson won't suit up tonight due to injuries to the knee and ankle, respectively. A tough break for them turns into a fantastic opportunity for Harris against the 32nd-ranked Dallas run defense.
My model projects Harris to carry the ball 17.54 times for 76.25 yards while adding 2.59 receptions and 21.27 receiving yards on 4.14 targets, and 0.69 touchdowns. His volume is enough for me to put him in the top spot, but with that volume I anticipate ownership. Nevertheless, he's my favorite 1.5x player in this matchup.
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $17,700 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 32 targets, 20 receptions, 316 receiving yards, six rushing attempts, 33 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -12.1%
I'll pivot from who will likely be the highest-owned player in the 1.5x spot to the most expensive player in the spot in Ceedee Lamb. Lamb has been good, but not up to his standard through the the first quarter of this season. With the 2-2 Cowboys reeling and looking for answers, they'll have to come through Ceedee, as Brandin Cooks has hit the IR with a knee injury.
CEEDEE LAMB IS MONEY 🤑
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/5JaVRpxY04
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 8, 2024
My model projects Ceedee to catch 6.57 of 10.34 targets for 83.43 receiving yards and 0.49 touchdowns in this one. This Steelers defense is no joke, and Dak Prescott is going to want to get Lamb going early and often. I think that his reception projection is a bit low, given the Steelers' ability to put pressure on the quarterback. Dak should be getting the ball out quickly and it would not surprise me one bit to see Lamb come up with double-digit receptions tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Fields, Jake Ferguson, Chris Boswell
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jake Ferguson - TE, $7,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 23 targets, 16 receptions, 159 receiving yards
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 9.5%
I'll look at one of Lamb's running mates, and quite frankly, the second option in this Cowboys offense is Jake Ferguson. After missing Week 2's matchup, Ferguson has backed it up with 13 receptions and 144 receiving yards on 18 targets in weeks 3 and 4. With Cooks now sidelined, I'd have to imagine his target share can only go up, especially against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA against tight ends.
Jake Ferguson high-pointed that one 🙌
📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/o1rR9nkdp7— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
My model projects Ferguson to catch 5.01 of 7.28 targets for 47.79 yards and 0.37 touchdowns. Much like with CeeDee Lamb, I anticipate Ferguson seeing a lot of work in the short and intermediate zones, and he's also my sneaky pick to find the end zone on Sunday night.
George Pickens - WR, $9,600 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 29 targets, 20 receptions, 284 receiving yards, one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -13.1%
I'll flip the field and look at the top pass catcher on the other side of things in George Pickens. Pickens had a solid Week 4, catching seven of his 11 targets for 113 yards. In that strong Week 3 performance, though, was a pretty brutal fumble in the red zone on a play where it seemed he was trying to make an effort to find the end zone for the first time this season.
My model projects Pickens to catch 5.02 of 8.83 targets here for 66.32 receiving yards and 0.36 touchdowns. Aside from Pat Freiermuth, there isn't much to offer in the Steelers' passing game. Pickens is a bit overpriced, especially on DraftKings, but I'll still have quite a few shares of him in this one. It takes just one double move for Pickens to find the end zone for the first time in 2024.
Other Flex Options: Dak Prescott, Pat Freiermuth
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jalen Tolbert - WR, $5,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 19 targets, 12 receptions, 160 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 23.1%
I'll wrap things up as far as offensive players go with Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert is arguably in the most valuable spot on the slate, aside from Najee Harris, as he slides up into the WR2 position behind CeeDee Lamb. This is a spot where Pittsburgh struggles, and while I think being the second-option at wide receiver doesn't necessarily correlate to being the second-option in this offense, he should still see a good dose of volume.
My model projects Tolbert to see 6.01 targets in this one, catching 3.72 for 45.12 yards and 0.28 touchdowns. Given his cheap price, particularly on DraftKings, Tolbert is a must-play.
Chris Boswell - K, $5,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 11/12 field goals made/attempted, 6/6 extra points made/attempted, five field goals 50+ yards.
I'll wrap things up with Chris Boswell. While every team wants a kicker that they can rely on, few teams rely on their kicker more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Boswell ranks second all-time in Steelers history in points scored, with 1,008 points in just 137 games. I mentioned earlier that the Steelers passing game leaves a lot to be desired, and an elite run game can only get you so far. If Pittsburgh wants to move to 4-1, they'll have to rely on their defense and "The Bos". I'll be running Boswell in over 50% of all my lineups.
Other Value Options: Cowboys D/ST, Steelers D/ST, Calvin Austin III
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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