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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun Sunday Night Football matchup here, as the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (1-2) head north to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills (3-0). Allen and the Bills have gotten off to a smooth start despite some of the losses in personnel on both sides. The start for Lamar and the Ravens has been anything but that, but they'll look to make a statement win on at home on SNF.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Falcons Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on September 29. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Derrick Henry - RB, $14,700 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 56 rushing attempts, 281 rushing yards, four targets, two receptions, 35 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 25.73%
I'll start things off with Derrick Henry. The Ravens decided to go in on an elite running back in the offseason, and it's been paying dividends through the first three weeks of the season, despite the 1-2 record. Henry comes into this one averaging 93.7 yards per game.
Beyond playing well, it is notable that Henry is still seeing the volume of a top running back. He averaged just over six yards per attempt across 25 rushing attempts last Sunday against the Cowboys. My model does project him to see regression in rushing attempts (16.06) while gaining 67.35 yards. He projects to add 1.71 receptions for 13.97 receiving yards, and 0.72 touchdowns.
Derrick Henry had his first 100+ yard rushing game for the Ravens in Week 3 against the Cowboys.
It shouldn’t come to anyone’s surprise that his 2 biggest runs of the day (29 yards and 26 yards for a TD) came on runs where he wasn’t lined up offset to Lamar Jackson in shotgun.… pic.twitter.com/xA7QtORSnR
— Charles “Chux” Maranan (@ChuxMaranan) September 25, 2024
Josh Allen - QB, $16,500 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 634 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, 17 rushing attempts, 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 85.84%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Josh Allen. Allen has looked extremely impressive through the first three weeks of the season, coming off a particularly efficient outing against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 3, where he threw for 263 yards in four touchdowns in just over three quarters.
It appears the loss of his top two receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs has made no difference for the Bills offense, aside from them running the ball a bit more. Allen hasn't run the ball nearly as much this season, and my model projects him to run just 5.5 times tonight for 31.28 rushing yards and 0.36 touchdowns. Those numbers are in addition to the 287.16 passing yards and 1.67 touchdowns through the air.
Other Captains/MVPs: Lamar Jackson, Dalton Kincaid, Justice Hill
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Khalil Shakir - WR, $7,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 14 targets, 14 receptions, 168 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 7.6%
I'll look at who I believe are Allen's top two receiving targets in my flex positions here. We'll start with Khalil Shakir, whose first three weeks of the season have been nearly perfect, as he's caught each of his first 14 targets. Shakir exploded for 72 yards and a touchdown on six targets Monday and looks to build on that impressive performance on prime time once again.
The Ravens have been notorious for the pass defense over the past few seasons, and while they've been good through the first three weeks, they haven't been great. I believe Buffalo will lean a bit more on the passing game in this one, with Shakir and the guy I'll mention next being a big part of it. My model projects Shakir to catch 4.11 of 5.75 targets for 58.58 yards and 0.32 touchdowns.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $7,200 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 11 targets, eight receptions, 85 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 14.3%
I'll bounce just inside and take a look at Dalton Kincaid next. Kincaid was a season-long fantasy darling heading into this season and has not endeared those who drafted him for the first few weeks, despite his touchdown reception on Monday Night Football just a few days ago.
It's my opinion that it's taking Kincaid a bit more to develop into his increased role, partnered with the fact that the Bills are simply running the ball more. Nevertheless, Kincaid has a solid matchup here as the Ravens rank 20th in DVOA against tight ends. My model projects him to catch 4.87 of 6.33 targets for 47.91 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Lamar Jackson, Keon Coleman, James Cook
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Justice Hill - RB, $5,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 10 rushing attempts, 58 rushing yards, 12 targets, 10 receptions, 83 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 25.73%
As I took two Bills in my flex plays, I'll pivot over to a pair of Ravens for my value plays, starting with Justice Hill. Hill hasn't done a ton in the running game this season but has been a bit target in the short passing game for Baltimore.
This creates a fantastic spot for him in this game, as the Bills have struggled against running backs in the passing game, ranking 29th in DVOA. My model projects him to run the ball just 2.56 times for 10.53 yards, but it also projects him to add 3.9 receptions and 34.45 yards on 4.11 targets and 0.24 touchdowns.
Rashod Bateman - WR, $4,400 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 targets, eight receptions, 121 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 31.3%
I'll wrap things up with Rashod Bateman, my favorite Ravens pass-catcher on tonight's slate. While I don't think he'll be the highest-scoring of the bunch, I think he generates the best matchup against this Bills defense. Bateman caught three of four targets last week for 28 yards and a touchdown, and my sneaky bet is that he finds the end zone again tonight.
Fake Cross in the Red Zone pic.twitter.com/1DvF0gxgsa
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) September 25, 2024
My model is under-projecting him here, as it shows him catching just 2.63 of 4.36 targets for 28.27 yards and 0.18 touchdowns. That isn't much to offer, but I'm more bullish on him here. Considering this is a difficult slate with a lot of fantasy points funneled at the top, I'll have a heavy dose of Bateman to make sure I can squeeze in the studs.
Other Value Options: Curtis Samuel, Tyler Bass, Nelson Agholor
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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