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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting matchup between two teams needing a win square off as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (1-4) head to East Rutherford to take on Daniel Jones and the New York Giants (2-3). Despite both teams wanting to secure a win to turn their season around, they come in under two completely different circumstances. The Bengals come in following a tough overtime loss to the Ravens, but come in with all of their playmakers healthy. On the other hand, the G-Men come into this showdown off a strong showing in Seattle last week but will be without their top running back and wide receiver Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers, respectively. Let's see how this one shakes out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Giants Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 13th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Burrow - QB, $15,000 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,370 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, 14 rushing attempts, 38 rushing yards, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 32.28%
I'll lead things off with Joe Burrow. Despite Cincinnati's early troubles, Burrow has played very well. Cincinnati brings the second-ranked offense in terms of DVOA into this one. My model projects Burrow to complete 74.34% of his passes for 265.16 yards, 1.99 touchdowns, and just 0.34 interceptions.
I love Burrow in the 1.5x spot in this matchup, with my only minor concern being my lack of confidence in the Giants being able to stop any of the Bengals' offense, whether it be the pass or the run game. To this point of the season, the Giants have dominated time of possession.
This could force a "grind it out" type of game from Cincy, with Zack Moss and Chase Brown carrying the load. With that said, I'll bet that Burrow picks apart this New York secondary and walks down the field for multiple scores.
Daniel Jones - QB, $13,500 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,138 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 34 rushing attempts, 108 rushing yards.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 27.48%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Daniel Jones. With the addition of rookie sensation Malik Nabers, Jones has had a pretty solid 2024 campaign. However, there's one small issue: Nabers won't be suiting up tonight as he couldn't' clear the NFL's concussion protocol this week.
With that said, reports came out Saturday evening that Devin Singletary will also be sidelined for this matchup, forcing Tyrone Tracy into the RB1 spot for the Giants. Not to knock on Tracy, but I opine that the Giants will look for Jones to move them down the field through the air and with his legs. My model projects him to throw for 228.17 yards and 1.89 touchdowns, adding 34.11 yards and 0.19 touchdowns on the ground.
Other Captains/MVPs: Wan'Dale Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Brown
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Ja'Marr Chase - WR, $11,400 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 36 targets, 29 receptions, 493 rushing yards, five touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 16.2%
When looking at our flex options on this slate, I was intrigued with the prospect of tying at least two pass catchers with each quarterback, depending on who you run at the 1.5x spot. We'll start with Ja'Marr Chase, who feels bound to explode again.
BURROW TO CHASE. 41-YARD TD.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/7ZRVX14NHN— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
My model projects Chase to catch 7.13 of his 9.99 targets for 82.87 yards and 0.67 touchdowns. When I gave my rationale for Burrow in the 1.5x spot, I mentioned that the Giants are a heavy time-of-possession team. This means very little for the Burrow-Chase connection, who seemingly throw a 70-plus yard touchdown within the first three plays of a drive every week. I bet that we'll see more of the same in this one.
Wan'Dale Robinson - WR, $8,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 47 targets, 32 receptions, 230 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 26.3%
With Burrow-Chase being a bonafide "QB + WR1" stack, there's a little bit of nuance required when discussing things on the other side of the field tonight. In the absence of Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones will look for Wan'Dale Robinson to step in as his pseudo-WR1 here.
Robinson has had a strong showing in recent weeks, averaging eight receptions and 56 yards per game across his last three. Against Cincinnati, he projects to catch 6.82 of his 9.61 targets for 59.20 yards and 0.46 touchdowns. The Bengals struggle against their opponent's top receivers to this point in the season, and I think Wan'Dale does more than enough to justify his price here.
Other Flex Options: Tyrone Tracy, Tee Higgins, Darius Slayton, Chase Brown, Zack Moss
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Gesicki - TE, $4,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21 targets, 17 receptions, 178 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 11.8%
I'll look for different options for value plays in this matchup, but I'll keep my opinion that this ends up being a passing game on both sides of the ball. We'll look at Mike Gesicki first, who projects for just 2.35 receptions on 3.41 targets for 28.27 yards and 0.14 touchdowns.
I think Gesicki is a tad under-projected here. Despite being relegated to the fourth (or perhaps fifth) in terms of passing options in this Cincinnati offense, he remains a red zone threat and he's my sneaky pick to find the end zone in this one.
Theo Johnson - TE, $2,800 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 targets, eight receptions, 85 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 11%
I'll wrap things up with Giants tight end Theo Johnson. Johnson had a quiet first quarter of the 2024 season before "breaking out" against Seattle last Sunday, catching each of his five targets for 48 yards.
I think Johnson is another candidate to step up in the absence of Malik Nabers, and my model projects him to catch 2.94 of 4.47 targets for 28.69 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. He's extremely cheap on both sites and he along with Jalin Hyatt will be in the vast majority of my lineups as filler/value pieces.
Other Value Options: Bengals D/ST, Jalin Hyatt, Greg Joseph
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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