RADIO
The playoffs are finally here, and while that means entertaining and exciting football, it also means small slates for DFS. These small slates are tough to create differentiation, and sometimes you need to be creative. This week we have an interesting situation with the weather sweeping across the USA right now. With one game Saturday and one game Sunday indoors, and the Eagles game expected to miss the worst of the weather, it could still be a high scoring day for DFS.
This week has seen some major shifts in projected totals in some places. The games in Houston and New England have seen the total creep up close to 45, almost matching the game in Philadephia. Meanwhile, the game in New Orleans has the highest total, sitting around the 50 point mark.
Let's take a look at the DFS cash game value plays for Wild Card weekend of the 2019 NFL season. This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets or carries.
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Quarterback DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Drew Brees, NO vs. MIN | DK: $6,600, FD: $8,500
At the second-highest price on DraftKings and the highest on FanDuel you could say this is not a "value" pick. However, value is relative to the return on investment, and frankly, Brees has the chance to be the best there. This game has the highest expected total and the Vikings Defense has been suspect at times. The Vikings have the second-worst ranking in points allowed against quarterbacks this season among the eight teams playing.
Carson Wentz, PHI vs. SEA | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300
The sixth-highest price at the position on DraftKings makes this more of a value pick there than the third-highest price at FanDuel. My initial feeling was that Tom Brady might be the play here, but with Storm Henry, no not Derrick Henry, expected to hit New England, that might not be a game you want much part of. Wentz is playing a defense that has been vulnerable at times this season, and he seems to have built an interesting rapport with his young patchwork receiving core.
Running Back DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Devin Singletary, BUF @ HOU | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,200
This is the prime matchup of the week at the position, and the price is fairly reasonable on both sites. Singletary will more than likely be the lead back against a team allowing 24 FPPG to lead backs. Buffalo's method of winning this game should revolve around control of the ball, and that is what Singletary gives them. His only failure in recent weeks came against the Patriots, and we can forgive him for that.
Boston Scott, PHI vs. SEA | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,600
This one very much depends on Miles Sanders' situation, but even if Sanders is on the field I still think Scott can play a role. Coming off a three-touchdown, 150-yard game last week Scott will be full of confidence. The young back has looked to have a great burst in recent weeks, and his role in the screen game could be pivotal to the Eagles. The price might be a little on the high side if Sanders is active, but it has the potential for big rewards if Sanders is limited, with Seattle allowing over 20 FPPG to lead backs.
Sony Michel, NE vs. TEN | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,700
There is a stark difference in value on the two sites here, but on DraftKings this is an easy play. Over the last three weeks, Michel has averaged 19.33 carries per game, averaged over four yards per carry, and scored a touchdown. Storm Henry could also be pivotal in making the Patriots keep the ball on the ground and making it tough for defenders to react to Michel on a potentially slippery field in Foxborough Saturday night.
Wide Receiver DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Greg Ward, PHI vs. SEA | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,100
Ward has finished with double-digit fantasy scores in each of the last three weeks and figures to be a crucial part of this team. No one in the Seattle secondary really scares you off Ward and they allow over 35 FPPG to opposing receivers. It might be the weirdest playoff DFS selection you ever make, but it might also be a game-changer for you.
Kenny Stills, HOU vs. BUF | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,800
Stills is the safer of the two secondary plays for the Texans this week. Fuller has the higher ceiling and at $300 more on DraftKings ($200 less on FanDuel!) should be the play if active. The Bills are likely to be coming into Saturday a little banged up in their secondary and Tre'davious White is likely going to be busy covering DeAndre Hopkins. Whoever draws the secondary options in the Bills Defense could be primed for a big day, and Still has double-digit returns in three of his last four games.
Tre'Quan Smith, NO vs. MIN | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,500
If you want safe then this is not a play for you, but if you want some upside at the back end of your cash game roster then just maybe you look at Smith. He has a touchdown in three of his last four, and four of his last six, but the safety of regular targets is not there. Smith has game-breaking ability and matched up against a mediocre Vikings secondary, allowing over 15 FPPG to number two receivers, he has the chance to put in a big return.
Tight End DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Jonnu Smith, TEN @ NE | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,800
If you are playing on FanDuel just try and pay up for Dallas Goedert if Zach Ertz cannot suit up, because he is not that much more than Smith on that platform. However, if you are on DraftKings I really believe Smith could be in for a big day. Patrick Chung has had issues with the tight end position in the last few weeks, and Smith might be the best he has faced. The Patriots have allowed touchdowns to tight ends in two of their last three and nearly allowed a long one in the Bills game as well. Smith's speed makes him a game breaker and if the Patriots try to negate Henry and A.J. Brown it could open opportunities for Smith to make a big play.
