NFL Coaching Matters: AFC South Preview

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key AFC South coaches for 2023 and their potential fantasy football impact.

After every NFL season, teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While most teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, there are always a few other teams that opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the AFC South to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The Jacksonville Jaguars will maintain their core offensive coaching staff, while the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans all have significant changes on that side of the ball.

This should help provide fantasy managers will even more relevant information to take into their upcoming drafts. Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the AFC South!

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Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Head Coach: Doug Pederson

Doug Pederson was hired as the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach in 2022. Prior to taking the job with the Jaguars, he had served as an offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs (2013-2015) and as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles (2016-2020). Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Jacksonville Jaguars players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Pederson's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor

Press Taylor has been the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator since 2022. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Jacksonville Jaguars' fantasy-relevant players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Press Taylor's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Doug Pederson & Press Taylor's Takeaways & Expectations

Since Doug Pederson has been the primary play-caller for the Jaguars and Press Taylor has only worked under Doug Pederson as an offensive coordinator, we will talk primarily about the offense that Pederson has liked to run over the course of his career in this section.

Looking at Pederson's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of things we immediately notice. First, while Doug Pederson's career average running back room has been above par, they've been more pedestrian over the last five years that he's been an offensive play-caller. Second, historically Doug Pederson's wide receiver room has been awful, the 2022 season was just the second time in his nine-season career that his wide receiver room has been above the NFL league averages. Third, Doug Pederson is the tight end whisperer and a near-lock at getting above-average production out of this position group.

Based on all of this information:

• Travis Etienne is being appropriately valued as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this offense.
• You may need to temper expectations for Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk. They should both be fantasy relevant but their upside is probably not as high as you'd think in an offense quarterbacked by Trevor Lawrence.
• Evan Engram will get a bigger workload than most tight ends in the league and once again be in the TE1 conversation.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard, Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty, D'Ernest Johnson, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, Jamal Agnew, Parker Washington, Tim Jones, Brenton Strange, Evan Engram, and Kevin Austin Jr.

Tennessee Titans

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly

The Tennessee Titans shook up their offensive coaching staff this offseason, moving on from Todd Downing and hiring Tim Kelly to be the team's newest offensive coordinator. Kelly had previously served as an offensive coordinator during his time with the Houston Texans (2019-2021). Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Tim Kelly's team offensive statistics over the course of his career in an OC role to get a better understanding of how the Titans may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Tim Kelly's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Tim Kelly's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has been more defensive-minded over the course of his career, we will look at Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly's info in this section.

There are a few things we can take away from Tim Kelly's 0.5 PPR data.

First, Tim Kelly's running back room has been below-average in every single season of his play-calling career thus far. Second, Tim Kelly's wide receiver rooms have finished above average in two out of his three seasons as a play-caller. Third, in terms of fantasy production, Kelly's tight end rooms have been either average or below average in his three years as the Texans' offensive coordinator.

Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• Derrick Henry is still a valuable fantasy asset, but maybe not to the levels we've come accustomed to seeing from him in the past few years.
• Treylon Burks is a good gamble at his current ADP – he's no longer a rookie and the offense should end up passing more in 2023. His ADP should drop even further given his LCL sprain, which will cause him to miss a handful of weeks.
• While Chigoziem Okonkwo has gotten some hype as a potential sleeper, his current ADP seems appropriate – this offense doesn't seem well suited to produce a tight end that is much better than replacement level.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, Malik Willis, Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears, Hassan Haskins, Julius Chestnut, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, Chris Moore, Racey McMath, Colton Dowell, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Josh Whyle

Indianapolis Colts

2023 Head Coach: Shane Steichen

The Indianapolis Colts hired Shane Steichen to be their new head coach this offseason. Prior to taking the job with the Colts, Steichen had served as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers (2019-2020) and the Philadelphia Eagles (2021-2022). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Steichen's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Colts may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Shane Steichen's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter

Jim Bob Cooter will be the Colts' new offensive coordinator this season. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator from his time with the Detroit Lions (2015-2018). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Jim Bob Cooter's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Indianapolis Colts may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Jim Bob Cooter's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Shane Steichen & Jim Bob Cooter's Takeaways & Expectations

Shane Steichen may be on the younger side for a head coach, but he's been one of the most impressive play callers over the past four years.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away after looking at Shane Steichen's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, Shane Steichen's running back room has generally performed at an above-average level over the course of his career. Second, Steichen's wide receiver room has been up and down in the first four years of his career, with two good fantasy seasons and two bad fantasy seasons. Third, Steichen's tight end room has been just barely above league average for fantasy purposes thus far in his career.

Besides Shane Steichen, we also should take a brief look at offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's previous fantasy offenses in case he has to take over play-calling duties at some point in 2023.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Jim Bob Cooter's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues.

First, Jim Bob Cooter's running back rooms have generally been slightly below average over the course of his four seasons in an offensive coordinator role. Second, his wide receiver rooms have consistently finished above average. Third, Jim Bob Cooter's tight end room has been below average over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller.

Based on this information:

• Jonathan Taylor should have a bit of a bounce-back season since Steichen has been above average at getting fantasy production out of his running back room over the course of his career. It will also be important to monitor the training camp battle for the backup role and handcuff behind him in this backfield. Of course, this all depends on whether or not Taylor is available in Week 1.
• Michael Pittman Jr. and the rest of the wide receiver room should get a little more usage than they did last year with Frank Reich and Jeff Saturday running the offense.
• The tight end room won't be used nearly as much in the passing game as they were in the Frank Reich era. Jelani Woods is likely more of a matchup-based streamer than a guy you can trust every week.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger, Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, Evan Hull, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Isaiah McKenzie, Ashton Dulin, Breshad Perriman, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, and Mo Alie-Cox

Houston Texans

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik

It's hard to get a great read on what Bobby Slowik's offensive philosophy will be given this is his first time in an offensive play-calling role at any level – high school, college, or NFL. But given how much time he has spent working around San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, there's a good chance that he operates in a similar manner.

If this is indeed the case:

• Running backs Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary will be more efficient in standard formats compared to PPR formats, and Pierce will have a solid chance of being an RB2 once again.
• As for the wideouts, they probably aren't going to be as valuable as you'd hope. If you take a shot on a Texans wide receiver make sure it's pretty late in your draft and ideally, you are taking a shot on one of the younger options – John Metchie III or Nico Collins.
• There is some potential sneaky value from the tight end position in this offense. Because of this, Dalton Schultz is one of the more appealing tight-end options at his current ADP.

Fantasy Relevant Players: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, Case Keenum, Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Mike Boone, Dare Ogunbowale, Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie III, Noah Brown, Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, Amari Rodgers, Jalen Camp, Dalton Schultz, Teagan Quitoriano, and Brevin Jordan

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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