RADIO
It feels good to be back. I'm refreshed from my off week. I really needed that break after a brutal Week 5. The Ravens dropped almost every key pass and dropped my record on the money line below .500. Their failure to score much also contributed to my first loss on over/under picks. I sure need to do better picking against the spread.
This week brings us a lot of relatively evenly-matched contests. The largest favorite, as I write this on a Thursday morning, is the Buffalo Bills, with an 8.5-point advantage expected over the Patriots. The Seahawks are an 8-point favorite over the Cardinals. Every other game is priced within a single touchdown, and eight of them are three set at three points or less.
It might be tough to pick Week 7 winners, but it'll sure be fun to watch. Let's jump in!
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NFL Betting Picks - Season Totals
- Last Week: Off (Driving Through Thailand)
- Week 5 Results: 0-1 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under
- Season-long Record: 2-3 on Moneyline, 3-9 Against the Spread, 6-1 on Over/Under Picks
Week 7 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (GB -1)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 45
The Packers are a young and rising team that shows flashes but can't maintain high-level play. The Broncos are an older team that was built to win now but continues to flop. The Packers have the ability to play a good game any given week.
They don't always do it. Not for a whole game. The Broncos pretty consistently play a bad game every week, and when they do find themselves in a position to tie or win, they choke. Their only win was a three-point comeback win over the last-place Bears that was really only a one-point win according to the adjusted score.
Simply put, the Packers are the better team eight times out of ten, and they have more upside. I expect Jordan Love to get back to his playmaking mode against the Broncos defense, the very defense that allowed Justin Fields to get out of his early season slump.
Love was one of the most valuable quarterbacks in the first few weeks of the season. He had generated nearly 100 expected points for Green Bay's ELO value in his first four career starts (including one in 2021) before he fell into a slump. His high EPA-per-play was driven in part by big plays and an unsustainably high touchdown ratio.
While I don't know if he can return to glory for the rest of the season, I do think he can do it against the Broncos. They are allowing the most touchdowns per game, the most passing yards per attempt, and an above-average red zone scoring rate.
Pick: Packers (-119) over Broncos on the ML
Week 7 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (WAS -2.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 39
The Commanders are viewed as being closer to the Giants than they really are because they struggled in a tough stretch of games since Week 3. They lost to the Bills (badly) and the Eagles, as expected, but they kept it close against the Eagles. Then they played the Bears on Thursday Night Football on a short week, just as the Bears offense was coming to life, and they lost by 20. Last week, they only beat the Falcons by seven. But their defense got back to making big plays, picking off Desmond Ridder three times and sacking him thrice.
Overall, the Commanders are 3-3, but they are 3-1 against losing teams, and they are 3-3 against the spread (2-2 ATS vs losing teams). The 1-5 Giants (1-5 ATS) shouldn't get too much credit for playing the Bills to a five-point loss last week. The Bills routinely choke or play down to the level of their opponents. The Giants have been double-digit dogs three times this season and lost against the spread in two of those games. (And I got burned taking the Giants to cover a 10.5 spread against San Fran in Week 3!)
Daniel Jones, who missed last week, is practicing in a limited fashion, but it's still unclear if he will play. I would not change my pick against the Giants, whether Jones or Tyrod Taylor is starting. The offense has looked lethargic, with both behind center. They've scored a single touchdown in the past four games.
Pick: Commanders (-2.5) over Giants
Week 7 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7.5)
Sunday, 4:05 pm | O/U:44.5
The Cardinals haven't gotten anything going since their surprise Week 3 win over the Cowboys. If you look at the big picture, they have only scored more than twenty points twice, and they have averaged 15 points per game in the past three. Joshua Dobbs has fallen back to mediocre play, and it doesn't help that he's also their leading rusher now that James Conner is out.
The Seahawks have scored over thirty points twice, but those were both high-scoring affairs in which both teams scored 27 or more. Their Week 2 win against the Lions, which also went over, was decided in overtime. If there's no pressure for the Seahawks to score points, they are content to cruise, as they did in their 24-3 win over the Giants in Week 4. In that game, the Seahawks quarterbacks (with Drew Lock coming in briefly when Geno Smith got injured) threw a combined 26 passes, and their running backs ran the ball 22 times.
Over his career, Kenneth Walker III has averaged 20.8 carries per game in games in which Seattle wins by seven or more and 12.7 in close games. Expecting Arizona to struggle to score and Seattle to win comfortably, I pick the score to go under. If you buy my story, you can also combine it with a prop bet on KWIII going over 76.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 44.5
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