RADIO
No way around it, Week 6 was not kind to me. Every play was just flat out the wrong side and I got taken out back. To steal one of the world's best cliche's...there' nowhere to go but up! For real, it's such a long season and while it's great to always win, sports betting is not easy and as the season moves on, finding value gets tougher each week. Let's make Week 7 better and start a nice trend upward!
- 2021 Season: 6-13 (32%, -7.7u)
- Spread: 4-2, +1.5u
- Total/Team Total: 1-9, -8u
- Moneyline: 0-2, -1.6u
- Props: 1-0, .4u
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Over/Under Betting Picks
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday 10/24, 1 PM EST | O/U: 43.5
It's no surprise that the Panthers are a totally different team without Christian McCaffrey (hamstring); they're 0-3 since the star running back got injured. Sam Darnold has suffered mightily in his absence, throwing for just 685 yards with four touchdowns to six interceptions in those three games. Well, head coach Matt Rhule is ready to rely on rookie Chuba Hubbard and the run game to try and get back to winning ways. The rook has performed well, rushing for 219 yards and a score in his first three starts. On the defensive side, after starting as arguably the best defense in the NFL, there has been some regression. They've allowed 36, 21, and 34 points in their last three, respectively, while allowing over 430 yards of offense in two of those. This is a big spot for this defense to show whether they are for real or not, facing a banged up Giants team.
The Giants are just in a really bad place right now. Through no fault of their own, they've been decimated by injuries. Saquon Barkley (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), Sterling Shepard (hamstring), Darius Slayton (hamstring) have all missed time and most are highly questionable to play this week. That's a lot of weight put on the shoulders of Daniel Jones, Devontae Booker, Evan Engram, and apparently Dante Pettis. The latter saw 11 targets in Week 6 because there was essentially no one else to catch passes from Jones. The offense has scored 20 or less in three of their last four with a schedule that wasn't all that tough opponent wise. Defensively, there are few worse right now, as the Giants have allowed over 425 yards per game (ypg) in the L3 and a league-worst 34 points per game (ppg)
Carolina want to establish the run and have the means to do so. Meanwhile New York is one of the most banged up teams in football right now, especially on offense. If this total was 40 or lower, I'd stay away entirely but I'm having a tough time seeing where the points are coming from here. Both sides have been putting up their yards and points in garbage time recently, but I don't see either side pulling away for garbage time to be a factor.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Sunday, 10/24, 4:05 PM EST | O/U: 48.5
The Eagles are nearing the point f no return in Nick Sirianni's first season. They're 2-4 and signs of consistency are scarce. Through the first four, they put up at least 328 ypg on offense, but the last two things have fallen back to just 273 and 213, respectively. They were bale to pull out a win in one of those, but that's not sustainable. The passing game, through Jalen Hurts, has been so up-and-down, but Hurts has been electric on the ground, rushing for 300 yards and five scores. The coaching staff needs to get Miles Sanders more involved, and they have over the last two weeks, giving him 27 touches but the third year back still has yet to score in 2021. Defensively, Philly has been stout against the pass, allowing just 211 ypg and only 171 ypg allowed in their three road games. On the other hand, their run defense is terrible, surrendering over 100 ypg in all five games this season.
The Raiders proved to the public and themselves that it doesn't matter who their coach is, they're going to play hard. Their 34-24 win over Denver in Week 6 was a good statement as they surpassed 400 yards of offense for the fourth time this season and also registered four takeaways on the road. Derek Carr was on an insane pace through the first three games of this year before coming back down to earth, however, Week 6 proved to be one of the more efficient outings of his campaign so far. A big issue for the 4-2 Raiders is their inability to run the ball, eclipsing 100 yards just once and over 80 yards just thrice. They paid Kenyan Drake this offseason to complement Josh Jacobs and they just can't get the tandem going. The Raiders defense is middle of the pack in terms of DVOA, ranking 15th but carry a top 10 rushing unit, which is interesting considering they've allowed over 130 yards on the ground four times this season.
The Raiders are probably riding high off the statement win in Week 6 and now tied for the AFC West lead with the Chargers. Their bye week comes in Week 8 but I think that's baked into them being three-point favorites here. I know there is more out of this Philly offense and I look for them to unleash it on the road against the Raiders.
Pick: Eagles ML +135 (Draftkings) .75 Units to win 1 Unit
NFL Over/Under Betting Picks
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5)
Sunday, 10/24, 4:05 PM EST | O/U: 50.5
Before Week 5, Robert Woods had been criminally under-utilized and Sean McVay knew acknowledged that and changed his gameplan accordingly. While things didn't exactly go backwards in Week 6 (woods scored), he only caught two balls for 31 yards. this is because the Rams got to such a big lead in the 2nd quarter, the need to pass was gone. I look for Woods to hav huge week, similar to Week 5.
Everyone knows Cooper Kupp is the king kahuna for the Rams, but Woods will be squaring up with rookie cornerback Jerry Jacobs who allows 1.7 yards per route run, and while he's only faced 10 targets this year, he's allowed seven receptions for an average of 20 yards per reception. This puts Woods in a great spot to put up a big day through the air, en route to another likely big win by the Rams.
Pick: Robert Woods Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM) 1 Unit
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