RADIO
The first week of bye weeks is here. That means we are one-fourth of the way through the season. Let's look at what has changed this early on.
For the fourth straight year since 2020, total offense is down. Teams are gaining just 330.6 yards per game versus 359.0 four years ago. For a while now, defensive coordinators have had an advantage on the offense when it comes to thinking up new schemes to slow the popular offensive concepts. While total scoring is up slightly from last season (22.3 versus 21.9), it is down from 2020 (when it was 24.8), and scoring is down per drive.
As usual, most game totals go under the line, but that trend isn't any more pronounced this year versus last year, and I have correctly called over/under picks. What am I predicting this week? Let's take a look at my Week 5 picks!
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Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 0-1 on Moneyline, 0-3 Against the Spread, 1-0 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 2-2 on Moneyline, 3-8 Against the Spread, 6-0 on Over/Under Picks
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (BAL -4, ML -199)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 38
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a training camp highlights team. They garnered much hype for their videos of George Pickens running sloppy routes one-on-one against their rookie cornerback in practice and then pushing off and making contested catches. Kenny Pickett was considered a "second-year breakout" candidate just because, on 15 preseason passing attempts, he earned a 93.7 PFF passing grade (0.3 whole points higher than Daniel Jones!).
Once the season began, it became evident that what we already knew about Pickett and the Steelers remained true. Pickett struggles against zone coverage and can't attack deep or towards the sidelines. He has only completed 42.8% of his pass attempts of ten yards or more downfield. Pickens is a diva whose route running and fundamentals are unsound. He's supposed to be a contested catch king, but so far, he has caught zero of the eight passes thrown his way that were contested.
Lamar Jackson, on the other hand, looks much improved as a passer in the new Todd Monken offense. Jackson is completing passes at the highest rate of his career--by a wide margin. His completion percentage is 74.3%, ten points higher than in 2020 and 2021. He has gotten the ball out quicker, and the Ravens have used three-receiver sets much more often than they did under Greg Roman.
The better play by Jackson hasn't resulted in more scoring, however. The Ravens have averaged 24.8 points per game in the first four weeks of the season, while they scored 29.8 points per game over the first four weeks of last season. Odell Beckham Jr. has missed two games, and Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews have both missed one game. Beckham and Bateman are back in practice this week, and Andrews scored two touchdowns last week.
Pick: Ravens ML (-199), Bet 1 Unit
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (DEN -1.5, ML -126)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 43.5
While 69% of betters are picking New York to beat the spread, as of Thursday morning, the cash is split evenly between the Broncos and the Jets. Those with the most money on the game are going with the Broncos.
The Broncos beat the Chicago Bears last week for their first win of the year. Justin Fields played his best game ever against the terrible Broncos defense. The Broncos rank dead last in total defense, scoring defense, and just about every other defensive category, but one of those games was against the Miami Dolphins. The Bears (No. 21 in total offense) are actually a considerably better offense than the Jets (No. 30).
Breece Hall might be in line for more carries. The Jets say they will no longer keep him to a snap count. But if it comes down to the fourth quarter, the Jets can't run a two-minute drill by handing the ball off to Hall again and again. Hall only received five of his 32 carries in the fourth quarter, and he only gained 2.8 yards per attempt on those carries. Zach Wilson will have to drive to try to tie or cut the Broncos' lead, and he'll mess up.
Pick: Broncos -1.5, Bet 1 Unit
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (BAL -4)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U:38
The Ravens-Steelers game has the lowest over/under of any game this week. It's been declining from 41.5 in the very early odds from late September to 40.5 on October 1 to now just 38 points at Caesars and other sportsbooks. The line fell as the Steelers' offense continued to underperform (inflated) expectations, but it fell too far.
While the Pittsburgh and its Matt Canada offense has been incompetent this season, the Ravens' offense ranks No. 12 in scoring, and they could have wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman healthy this week after both of them missed last week.
The Steelers' defense is proficient at making big plays and generating turnovers, but they haven't stopped opponents from moving the football and scoring points. They are allowing 25.0 points per game, the 23rd-most. Lamar Jackson has shown he can protect the football, as he has only thrown one interception and has not fumbled the football this season.
If both teams score their average, they would total about 40 points. Both teams' defenses are allowing a combined total of 39.5 points per game. If the Ravens' wide receivers return to the field, then give them a boost to help bring both teams over 38.
Pick: Over 38, Bet 1 Unit
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