RADIO
In Week 1, bettors often overreact to the previous season's standings. Now, in Week 2, we should not overreact to Week 1.
The Browns' defense is good for real, but the Bengals' offense is not bad enough to score 3 points in most games. The Cowboys are good, and the Giants are probably worse than their record last season indicated, but the Cowboys aren't 40 points good. Some things I am more sure about are that the Vikings are a mediocre team with a terrible defense that will be potential losers in almost any matchup; Jordan Love really is that good; and the 49ers are still one of the top two teams in the NFC.
Some things I don't have any idea about: the Broncos' offense; the Rams; and (relatedly) Geno Smith. Let's hope we can acquire more knowledge in Week 2.
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Week 2 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 2-2 Against the Spread, 1-0 on Over/Under
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (ATL -1.5 / -125)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | OU: 40.5 (my pick: over)
Both the Falcons and the Packers have young players at key skill positions. Both teams are rebuilding and entered the season with chips on their shoulders. Both celebrated big wins in Week 1 over poor-quality divisional rivals. I was high on both teams to overachieve expectations going into the season. Now, one team will have to lose.
As much as I like seeing the Falcons pursue (and hopefully succeed with!) a philosophy that goes counter to the NFL's anti-running back trends (and as much as I personally benefit from it, as a holder of both BIJAN and ALG stocks), I think the Falcons are going to be the team to lose. The Packers have a more well-rounded team, and quarterback Jordan Love is for real.
The Packers can beat a defense through the air or on the ground. Green Bay running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are no match for Atlanta's Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but they are both above-average on their own and together constitute a top-14 RB room. The Packers' WR corps also ranks in the top third of the NFL. Although Christian Watson (hamstring) has missed practice all week and likely won't play, he didn't play last week, either. Rookies WR Jayden Reed and TE Luke Musgrave stepped up in their NFL debuts.
Luke Musgrave oh so close to having a massive debut. Sheesh pic.twitter.com/lHg8kHjkrd
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 11, 2023
The Falcons offense, on the other hand, would struggle to move the ball through the air. Though Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two of the most talented young pass catchers, they have no depth. They only have half a dozen WRs on their roster, and their WR2 is Mack Hollins.
The Packers should be favorites. They were earlier this week, but injury news seems to have shifted the odds. I don't think betters and bookmakers have factored Jordan Love's upper-tier abilities into lines yet. The Packers will be favorites in more games later this season when he has proven himself to the market. Buy now while he and his team are cheap.
Pick: Packers ML (+125), Bet 1 Unit
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (DAL -9 /ML -427)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | OU: 38.5
The lines for this game have been changing all week. Both teams are difficult to evaluate. The Cowboys won by 40 in Week 1 against a Giants team people have trouble evaluating. They almost won by too large of a margin. If they had won by 10 or 14, it would just look like the Cowboys were good, but in winning by 40, it looks like the results were a crazy outlier that should be thrown out.
Meanwhile, the Jets beat the Bills even with Zach Wilson starting almost the whole game. They had the help of three Josh Allen interceptions and a punt return touchdown in overtime. That kind of result also looks like a fluke. Even though the Jets have a top-ten defense and an above-average roster at the non-quarterback skill positions, they will be severely handicapped at quarterback. On top of that, their offensive line remains a train wreck.
Still, the Jets are good enough to slow down the Cowboys offense. The Cowboys were not tested in Week 1. Dak Prescott only had to throw 24 passes (for 143 yards). The 'Boys only scored three offensive touchdowns.
The Cowboys should win this game outright, but they won't move the ball quickly or run up the score. The Jets, meanwhile, will game plan to move the ball on the ground and keep it out of the hands of the Dallas offense, which will lead to a low-scoring game and a single-digit margin.
Pick: Jets +9 (+110), Bet 1 Unit
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks - Game Total
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (IND -1.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | OU: 39.5
This is one of the four lowest game totals of the week, depending on when and where you got your line. It briefly dipped all the way to 39 on September 14 and 15. Other games in this territory feature the Jets, Broncos, and Cardinals.
I get it. Both teams have rookie quarterbacks and terrible offenses. But what else do both teams have? Terrible defenses. I have the Texans' defense ranked as fourth-worst in terms of talent and the Colts' defense is seventh-worst. The Ravens scored 25 on the Texans last week while Lamar Jackson only had to throw 22 passes because the result was never in question. The Jaguars scored 31 on the Colts.
The Colts offense is dynamic, even if it has a gaping hole at running back. Anthony Richardson puts his body on the line for his team, and he can will a drive by himself. He has developed a connection with WR Michael Pittman Jr.
5 players in week 1 had this combo of at least:
- 50% Air%
- 25% target%Tee Higgins (he’s gonna be fine)
A.J. Brown
Davante Adams
Mike Evans
Nico Collinspic.twitter.com/2TLedX9k32— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) September 13, 2023
The weak link in this over pick is the Texans' offense. While I have little question the Colts can score over 21 on the Texans, I am not quite as confident that the Texans can do their part and score 18 or more. I'll pick the over and leave it up to Richardson to drive his Colts to a big win. You could consider parlaying it with the Colts beating the spread.
Pick: Game total over 39.5, Bet 1 Unit
Other Picks Against the Spread I Like
Raiders (+8.5) @ Bills
The Raiders were +9.5 underdogs earlier this week, but the line shifted to LV +8.5 on Thursday. It's still a lot to give the Bills after an underwhelming Week 1. PFF's Greenline and NFELO both give the Raiders a slight expected value edge against the line.
This Raiders team has improved its offense since last year. The arrival of Jakobi Meyers gives Vegas a credible outside receiver opposite Davante Adams. Jimmy Garoppolo is a better quarterback now than Derek Carr was last year in one of the worst years of his career. It just takes Adams getting open once late in the game to cut the Bills lead to one possession.
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