RADIO
Last week was good and bad. The good: the Colts' defeat of the Steelers brought me close to .500 on the moneyline on the season. Let's see if we can get to .500 this week! Even better, it set up an exciting fight for the AFC South title.
The bad: the Broncos got outraced by the Lions, and the Jets couldn't even score a single point to help get to 37. It was all on the Dolphins, but they only needed 30 points to win. So, those were losses against the spread and the game total.
This week, we get the three-game Monday afternoon, evening, and night football extravaganza for Christmas highlighted by the San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) versus the Baltimore Ravens. Put me down on the side of the Ravens against the spread.
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Week 16 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 6-7 on Moneyline, 7-14 Against the Spread, 11-5 on Over/Under Picks
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (CIN -2.5 / CIN -154)
Saturday, 4:30 pm | O/U: 38
Jake Browning lost to the Steelers in Week 12, but that was Browning's first start. Kenny Pickett started for the Steelers, and he was looking good fresh off the replacement of Matt Canada at offensive coordinator. Now, Browning has more experience under his belt, and the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph as Pickett (ankle) misses another game.
Running back Chase Brown has also made a bigger impact for the Bengals in recent weeks. He had no touches in their 16-10 loss to the Steelers, and he only had five touches all season prior to that game. But since then, he has had 30 touches, including three receptions in each of the past two games.
The Bengals will win this time and continue on their way to the playoffs.
Pick: Bengals ML (-162)
Week 16 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (SF +5.5)
Monday, 8:15 pm
This was a tough pick to make. The 49ers can score so often and so quickly that they can easily wipe out a 5.5-point spread in one drive. But there are not many games this week with obviously misaligned lines. In fact, NFELO has all but one game classified as a "pass." Their model actually has the 49ers as even bigger favorites than the line (but not enough to make it a value).
Still, I'm putting my faith in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to keep the score within five. The Ravens are tricky to evaluate. They don't have any real showcase wins. The 49ers will be their first truly elite opponent. (They did beat the Bengals in Week 2, but Joe Burrow was still limping in that game.) Their most impressive interdivisional wins were over the Jaguars, the Seahawks, and the Lions -- all of whom are inconsistent or second-tier teams. They wiped the floor with all of them, winning each of those games by at least two touchdowns.
The Ravens do not have any embarrassing losses either. Two of their three losses came to division rivals -- the Steelers (by seven) and the Browns (by two) -- who always play each other tough. The other came against the Colts in overtime. Odell Beckham Jr. missed that game, but so did Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor for the Colts.
The 49ers are far and away the best team in the NFL, and the next bunch of teams are clumped relatively closely together. The 49ers already destroyed the Cowboys and the Eagles, so they could do it to the Ravens, too. It wouldn't be a shock. But the Ravens have a stronger defense than the Eagles and are better at winning on the road than the Cowboys. For our viewing pleasure, let's hope I'm right about this one.
Pick: Ravens +5.5 (-112)
Week 16 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears (CHI -4)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 43
Two of the bottom 10 scoring teams face each other in cloudy and windy Chicago on a field that might be wet from weekend rain. But this isn't the lowest over/under of the week. Even after the initial line fell from 44.5 to 43, it is still a good bet to pick the under.
The Cardinals have averaged 16.8 points per game in their past nine games. But even those numbers have been juiced by late-game garbage time scoring in blowouts. They scored two touchdowns, including one with 47 seconds left, against the 49ers when they were down by 19, and the 49ers were still scoring. This game against the Bears will be closer, so it will be tougher to score late in the game. The Bears won't score quickly and give the Cardinals a new possession.
The Bears' recent scoring numbers have been juiced, too, as they played the Lions twice in the past four weeks and scored over 25 on them both times. The last time the Bears scored 20 or more against a non-Lions opponent was against the Commanders in Week 5. They were held to 13 by the Vikings, 12 against the Raiders, and 13 against the Chargers and Panthers.
Pick: Under 43 (-110)
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