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Week 13 is highlighted by a rematch of last season's NFC Championship game.
The San Francisco 49ers must beat the Philadelphia Eagles (or have the Detroit Lions lose to the New Orleans Saints) in order to hang onto the number two seed in the NFC. The Eagles have a two-game lead on the Niners, so they'd still be the number one seed even if they lose, but they face the Cowboys next week, so they want to hang onto that breathing room.
Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Houston Texans host the Denver Broncos in a fight for a possible wildcard spot. Both teams are 6-5 and tied with the Colts but losing the tiebreaker.
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Week 13 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 0-1 on Moneyline, 1-1 Against the Spread, 1-0 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 4-6 on Moneyline, 5-13 Against the Spread, 10-3 on Over/Under Picks
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5.5 / PIT -252)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 41
The 7-4 Steelers are favorites here in this matchup against the 2-10 Cardinals with a 71.6% implied win probability. But according to the win probabilities based on ELO ratings, the Steelers should be considered 73% favorites. The spread should be closer to -7 rather than -5.5 in Pittsburgh's favor. That gives a bet on the Steelers an expected value of about 15%.
The Cardinals have not gotten better since Kyler Murray took over as quarterback. Their offense contributed negative expected points in each of the last two games. They were limited to 16 or fewer points, and they lost 14-37 to the Los Angeles Rams.
The Steelers' offense has started to move the ball since offensive coordinator Matt Canada was replaced by the duo of Eddie Faulker and Mike Sullivan. They still didn't score many points, but they will score more points in this win over the Cardinals as they will be able to convert red zone attempts. Cardinals opponents have scored a touchdown in the red zone 59.3% of the time.
Pick: Steelers over Cardinals on ML (-252)
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (CIN +8.5)
Monday, 8:15 pm | O/U: 38
Before the season started, USA Today's betting correspondent Ben Fawkes asked a couple of industry experts to rank all starting quarterbacks by spread value. Joe Burrow was assessed as being worth 6.75 points over backup Jake Browning. That's the second-highest value (tied with Josh Allen). Even Patrick Mahomes was only valued at 7.56.
If Burrow were starting, I would consider the Bengals to be favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars even on the road. Suppose that the matchup was considered even. The loss of Joe Burrow would still not be enough to make the Jags 8.5-point favorites.
Jake Browning averaged 8.7 yards per attempt last week in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals receivers are still playing well. Browning completed a lot of passes over the middle. He is not being called on to do anything too challenging or exciting, but it's enough for an otherwise top-notch offense to produce enough to keep it close.
Pick: Bengals +8.5 over Jaguars
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (KC -6)
Sunday, 8:20 pm | O/U: 42.5
Patrick Mahomes says he is a "cold weather quarterback," so he'll be in his element in this game in Green Bay where the weather will be near freezing, and there might be a light snow. That's not ideal for scoring, but I would be picking the under, anyway, even if the weather were warmer.
| 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter | |
| Chiefs Points | 4.9 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Chiefs Time of Possession | 45.8% | 54.9% | 55.2% | 53.5% |
The Chiefs are averaging 23.3 points per game this year versus 29.2 points per game last season. Their wide receiver core has not recovered since the losses of Tyreek Hill and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Andy Reid is calling conservative games and coasting when he has second-half leads. The Chiefs are averaging just 2.6 points per game in the fourth quarter, the fewest of all teams.
The Packers' offense has been surging lately, but that trend came against a slate of mediocre defenses: the Rams, the Steelers (allowing a lot of yards but producing turnovers), the Chargers, and the Lions. The Chiefs are allowing 16.5 points per game, the third-fewest in the league.
Pick: Under 42.5
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