RADIO
I am back after missing last week. And what a time to be back. Thanksgiving weekend has many exciting matchups that could go far in deciding playoff berths and seedings. Some of those games are ones few thought would be significant earlier in the year.
For example, the 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars, who already lost to the 6-4 Houston Texans once this season, play their division rival in Houston. The winner will control first place in the AFC South. The Denver Broncos hosting the Cleveland Browns was a highly-anticipated matchup in the preseason, but then the Broncos looked terrible in the first month. Now, the Broncos are back, baby, and the Browns have ridden a dominant defense to a 7-3 record despite their starting quarterback having played poorly and then getting injured.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' road game against the Cincinnati Bengals is a big one, but only for one team now that Joe Burrow is out for the season.
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Week 12 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: Off. Week 10 Results: 1-0 on Moneyline, 1-0 Against the Spread, 1-1 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 4-5 on Moneyline, 4-12 Against the Spread, 9-3 on Over/Under Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (HOU +1.5 / HOU +103)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 48.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars still have too many holes to be a Super Bowl contender, and now they might not even end up winning their own relatively weak division. Their defense is lackluster and can't generate pressure. They lack a number one wide receiver, and the receivers they do have drop too many passes. Trevor Lawrence still hasn't ascended to the top-tier level the "generational talent" was supposed to be.
The Houston Texans, on the other hand, have the quarterback who is already making an argument for being in the top tier in just his rookie year. The Texans also have a couple of great young receivers and a surprisingly good enough defense. Second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.'s return from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Weeks 2 through 9 could give the team a boost. Last week, he made five solo tackles and his first interception of the season.
Given that I'm taking Houston to win outright, they are a good pick against the spread, too, as they are 1.5-point underdogs.
Pick: Texans over Jags on ML (+103) and on the Points (HOU +1.5)
Week 12 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
New England Patriots @ New York Giants (NYG +3.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 34
Oh boy, I am so excited for the New York Giants to host the New England Patriots! If you had told me this game would have taken place Thanksgiving weekend with Daniel Jones starting against Mac Jones, I'd have been thrilled. Now the game is going to feature Tommy Devito against Bailey Zappe (maybe?) or Mac Jones (??) or maybe even Will Grier (??!). Bill Belichick has been tight-lipped about who will start. He says he has told all quarterbacks to be "ready to go," and the media will "know on Sunday." The Giants must be shaking in their boots!
The Patriots' problems go well beyond the quarterback position, however. Their PFF pass-blocking grade is the fifth-worst in the league. Their receivers, led by Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas, are the ninth-worst. Even their once-vaunted defense, which always made them a pesky team, is not as fierce this year. They have made the fifth-fewest sacks per game of any team in the league.
Momma's boy Tommy Devito might not be as gangster as the Tommy DeVito Joe Pesci played in Goodfellas, but he is as good as Mac Jones and much better at protecting the football. He has more upside and brings more spark to the game. The Giants are highly likely to win the game outright, and with a three-point cushion, they are a good home dog to take against the spread.
Pick: Giants (+3.5) over Patriots
Week 12 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -3)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 48.5
This game between two defensive powerhouses has an absurdly high over/under of 48.5. Betters like to take the overs, especially when two elite Super Bowl contenders (make that one Super Bowl contender and one perennial disappointment) face each other. This game is no different. Even at 48.5, 88% of the cash is reportedly on "over", per PFF Greenline.
Still, under is a better pick because of how these teams play the game. Philadelphia runs the ball 31.7 times per game, the third-most in the league. Buffalo, too, runs the ball at an above-average pace -- 26.5 times per game. Hence, four of the past six Eagles games have gone under the projected total, and two of three have gone under when the projection was 48 points or more. For the Bills, each of their past four games and six of their past seven have all gone under.
Pick: Under 48.5
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