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Will Brock Purdy become the first late-round quarterback to make it to the Super Bowl since Tom Brady? The 49ers made it this far last year only to be stymied by a nightmare sequence of quarterback injuries. It's time for them to put those memories in the past.
In the AFC, the quarterback battle is a "heavyweight fight," in the words of Lamar Jackson. Both him and Patrick Mahomes were first-round picks. Jackson will be playing in his first-ever AFC Championship Game. Mahomes has already played in five and won three. Let this be the year we get to see someone new in the Super Bowl!
Here are my picks for the Conference Championship Round on the moneyline, against the spread, and on over/under point totals.
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Conference Championship Round NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (SF -7 / SF ML -333)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | O/U: 51
The Detroit Lions are trying to grab the glass slippers from Brock Purdy. They're treated as the Cinderella story, but when Brock Purdy wins here, he will be the first seventh-round draft pick to lead his team into the Super Bowl.
There have been later-round picks who have won Super Bowls. Brad Johnson was picked in the ninth round two years before the NFL Draft was shortened to seven rounds. Kurt Warner went undrafted. Go back to the early days, and there were greats like Roger Staubach (10th round) and Bart Starr (17th round). But since 2010, only one quarterback drafted later than the third round has even played in the Super Bowl: Tom Brady.
By now, Purdy is old news, and people are tired of hearing about him. He's dismissed because of the quality of his supporting cast. True enough, no other team has as much talent at running back, tight end, and WR1-2. That's as good a reason as any to pick the Niners to beat the Lions this weekend and advance to the Super Bowl.
The Lions have by far the worst defense of any team remaining in the playoffs. While the 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs are all solidly among the top six defenses in terms of limiting the rate of opposing scoring drives, the Lions allow opponents to score at a rate higher than the league average, according to Kevin Cole's adjusted scoring rates. The raw numbers tell the same tale: the Ravens, Chiefs, and 49ers rank No. 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in terms of scoring defense. The Lions rank No. 23.
Purdy should be able to carve the Lions up by throwing to George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel if he is healthy. Samuel (shoulder) went down late in the Divisional Round, and he didn't practice on Wednesday. When Samuel missed most or all of three games in Weeks 6 through 9, the Niners lost all three games, and Purdy played some of the worst ball of his career.
If the 49ers do lose, it will most likely be because Samuel is not playing at 100% or they suffer other injuries in the game. For a team with so many elite offensive skill players to choose from, the Niners have looked surprisingly vulnerable when they are missing just one of them.
Pick: 49ers -7 (-110)
Conference Championship NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5 / BAL -198)
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET | O/U: 44.5
The Ravens are well-positioned to attack the Chiefs' biggest defensive weakness. The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season, the eighth-most. The Bills ran all over Kansas City last week to the tune of 182 yards. Sometimes they lined up three or four receivers and let Josh Allen beat them. Allen led the Bills with 72 yards on 12 carries.
Lamar Jackson is as good as, if not better than, Josh Allen at rushing, and the Ravens' overall rushing production has been superior to the Bills' this season. The Ravens ranked No. 1 this season in estimated points added (EPA) per rushing attempt, No. 3 in yards after contact per attempt, No. 1 in yards before contact per attempt, No. 2 in rate of successful plays, and No. 5 in big play percentage, according to RotoViz's Advanced Team Stats Explorer.
The Ravens have a better all-around receiving corps than the Bills, including Mark Andrews (ankle), who is back at practice, and they will beat Kansas City through the air if the Chiefs overcorrect to stop the run. Odell Beckham Jr. will complete his journey back to the Super Bowl.
The Ravens defense is also much tougher than those the Chiefs have been facing lately. The hook on the three is disappointing, but the Ravens have been able to beat better opponents by much larger margins on many occasions.
Pick: Ravens -3.5 (-110)
Conference Championship Round NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5 / BAL -198)
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET | O/U: 44.5
Both the Chiefs and Ravens defenses are weaker against the run than they are against the pass. Both teams have leaned on the run in the postseason. The Chiefs ran for over 140 yards in the first two rounds. The Ravens, with the help of 100 yards from Jackson, piled 229 rushing yards on the Texans (although that also meant 34 points).
The Chiefs benefited from a plethora of injuries to the Dolphins defensive line in the Wild Card Round and to the Bills linebackers in the Divisional Round. Even if Miami and Buffalo were at full strength, the Ravens defense would be superior. And the Ravens don't have many significant injuries on defense. The one starter on the injury report, cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf), logged a limited practice on Wednesday.
The Chiefs will score fewer points than usual, and they won't be helped by Kadarius Toney's (hip) return.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
Recap
- Divisional Round: 1-0 on Moneyline, 1-0 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
- Post-season Record: 2-0 on Moneyline, 1-1 Against the Spread, 0-2 on Over/Under Picks
- Regular Season Record: 7-9 on Moneyline, 9-15 Against the Spread, 11-7 on Over/Under Picks
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