NextGen Stats - Week 1: WR/TE Breakdowns and Takeaways

We made it! We wagered through a long and tedious preseason but real football hit us in the forehead for the first time this season during the past few days and change. But just as soon as it came, it went. The first week of the season is over and we have some tasty numbers already available and ready to be crunched.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Week 1 - TE/WR Air Yards Don't Lie - NextGenStats

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed.) I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of Air Yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total Air Yards.

As we have only seen one week of action, it would be a little hasty to make too many conclusions out of just one game's worth of data. That is why I'm leaning toward receivers (wideouts and tight ends) for the first entry of the series. This doesn't mean Air Yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Week 1 stays the same at least in the short-term future.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 5 targets for both WR and TE.

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-6% / 2%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
• Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.
• I have sorted the leaderboard by CUSH just because it has a little higher relationship with fantasy points.
• Last season, Darius Slayton was the only player with a CUSH above 9.0 one game into the season. This season it is a tight end, Kylen Granson, who has the privilege of being the only player with a CUSH above 8.2 in the first week of play.
• On the other end, Juwan Johnson and Hayden Hurst (both TEs) were the only two players with CUSH figures below 4.0 yards in Week 1.
• Johnson was, in fact, the only player with a CUSH+SEP below 5.5 yards. That speaks more about the defense he faced and its approach to coverage than his own talents, most probably.
• Jakobi Meyers had the next-lowest CUSH+SEP mark at just 5.5 marks while Mike Evans (5.7) and Hunter Renfrow (5.8) were the only two other players below six such yards.
• The fantasy returns of all those players varied wildly, though, with Johnson and Renfrow scoring less than 7.0 PPR points, but Meyers and Evans reaching 10.2 and 18.1, respectively.
• Deebo Samuel (who else...) logged the largest SEP at the time of the catch, averaging 5.0 yards on his couple of receptions. He was the only player to reach that figure.
• Treylon Burks (4.9), Braxton Berrios (4.8), Kylen Granson (4.7), Nelson Agholor (4.6), and Hayden Hurst (4.5) were the only other players to post a figure of 4.5+ SEP yards on Week 1.
• Of the six players with SEP figures of 4.5+, only Samuel topped 10 PPR points with his 12.6 PPR tally (in a putrid 2-of-8 reception outing).
• Agholor seemed to find it the hardest to work under such tight gaps at the catch point, hauling in three receptions but scoring a measly 3.8 PPR points over the Week 1 game.
• There was, as has always been the case with these metrics, wild variations between actual fantasy scores/production and the CUSH/SEP figures posted by pass-catchers.
• In other words: don't rely too much on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6% / 62%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy point he scores.
• This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Virtually every player (except Richie James) shown at the top of the table (and in fact, every player with a TAY% of 45%+) reached 15.0+ fantasy points in Week 1.
• Lowering the bar a bit, all (19) pass-catchers with TAY% of 36%+ scored double-digit fantasy points in Week 1.
• Richie James, highlighted in the bullet points above, is the only Giant to qualify for this week's leaderboard (min. five targets). He got targeted six times (caught five of them) for 46 Air Yards and that already meant 48.1% of the Giants' such yardage. NYG won their game, but that is most probably not going to be enough for most other weekends.
• TAY% is a great proxy to know how top-heavy offenses are. Take Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Houston as examples of such offenses. That's why A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson posted bonkers TAY% figures above 70% each, and why Brandin Cooks was also at a TAY% of 50 percent.
• Most interesting, though, is the case of Davante Adams getting 57.7% TAY% in Las Vegas. Looks like QB Derek Carr has a new BFF in town and has forgotten about Hunter Renfrow (TAY% of 10.2%) already (?)
• The usual tight ends topped the position TAY% leaderboard: Travis Kelce (31.1%), Kyle Pitts (30.6%), and Mark Andrews (26.9%) made up the top-three at the position.
• The fourth-largest figure belonged to Pat Freiermuth, already down below 25%.
• As many as 27 WRs posted larger TAY% figures than no. 1 TE Travis Kelce, although none of those 27 players played for the Kansas City Chiefs (Mecole Hardman only posted a 27.7% TAY%, already below Kelce's mark).
• Surprisingly, things were closer on the TAY (also known as aDOT) front. Andrews posted the higher figure among tight ends (13.6 yards downfield) with five other players at the position boasting aDOT figures of 10.5+ yards.
• Of course, wideouts dominated this category with eight WR posting aDOT figures above 16 yards down the field, five above 17, and a top-three featuring Treylon Burks (19.4 TAY), Julio Jones (19.9), and Rashod Bateman (20.8).
• It's interesting how Rashod Bateman--the new leading man on the Baltimore Ravens' offense--kept his style intact with his deep routes being the norm this weekend even though he's moved into a more prominent WR1 in the offense.
• With the exception of Treylon Burks (8.5 PPR), all other five wideouts with TAY figures above 17 yards posted double-digit fantasy points and at least 11.2 PPR.
• Of the 18 players with TAY marks below 8.0 yards, half of them were tight ends. Their average PPR was 11.7 FP this past weekend, but just seven of those players actually scored 12+ PPR points and only three reached 20+ (Curtis Samuel, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Cooper Kupp).
• Curtis Samuel's 1.5 aDOT is remarkable given his 11 targets through the game. The next-lowest mark on such a large diet of targets belonged to Tyler Higbee: 2.4 aDOT on 11 targets.
• On the other end, Courtland Sutton's 18.4 TAY was the largest among players with 7+ targets. The next-highest belonged to DJ Chark: 15.5 aDOT on eight targets.
• Of the 22 players scoring 15+ PPR points in Week 1, 13 of them posted aDOT figures above 10.0 yards and also had TAY% above 25%.
• On the other hand, only five of 26 pass catchers (Treylon Burks, Marvin Jones Jr., Ashton Dulin, CeeDee Lamb, and Kyle Pitts) with those two marks fell below 10 PPR points last weekend.

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 82% / 80% / 32% / 74%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why 22 of 23 (95.6%) players with 6+ receptions reached double-digit PPR points in Week 1.
• Almost as impressive was the fact that 14 of 16 (87.5%) players with 10+ targets reached 11.5+ PPR points (Tyler Higbee's 8.9 and CeeDee Lamb's 4.9 fell short).
• Don't overthink it: chase targets when drafting/trading for/acquiring players through waivers.
• Last season, Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson were the only two tight ends with 10+ targets in Week 1. This year, it's been two other tight ends: Tyler Higbee (11) and Pat Freiermuth (10).
• Only two other tight ends qualified with the minimum five targets over the first game of the season: Juwan Johnson and Robert Tonyan.
• In total, there were 15 qualified tight ends while as many as 57 receivers made the five-target cut one game into the season.
• Darren Waller's 19 targets to kick the 2021 season off were a massive outlier. Not only did that figure top this season's highest mark of 17 posted by Davante Adams, but it also was eight more targets than the highest mark by a tight end.
• Waller qualified for the leaderboard this weekend but he finished with just six targets and four receptions in Week 1.
• CeeDee Lamb had a weekend to forget. He got a ton of targets (11) and a rather high TAY% (35%) but he finished the day with only two receptions for a measly 29 yards and no scores. His 4.9 PPR points were the fewest among players with such a bulky dose of volume, and his 18.2% Catch Rate was the lowest figure among all 72 qualified players.
• DK Metcalf posted the lone 100% Catch Rate of the week, going 7-for-7 in Seattle's defeat to Denver on MNF. He only racked up 36 yards, though, five of them Yards After Catch for a putrid 8.6 PPR score.
• Only two qualified players (Deebo Samuel and Rashod Bateman) went on to achieve double-digit PPR scores while catching fewer than 50% of their targets on Week 1.
• All three players to score two touchdowns in Week 1 (Jahan Dotson, Michael Thomas, and Justin Jefferson) caught at least 60% of the targets they got. Dotson made the most of his chances, going 3-of-5 for two TDs and 40 Yds for a total 18 PPR tally (3.60 FP/Tgt).
• Funnily enough, all five players to post a Catch Rate of 80%+ topped at 11.1 PPR points (Richie James) while four of those didn't even reach 9.0 PPR points.
• A.J. Brown got peppered (13 targets) but finished the weekend as the only player with 13+ targets but no touchdown to his name. Four other players (Christian Kirk, Brandin Cooks, Diontae Johnson, and Tyreek Hill) got targeted 12 times and didn't score either.
• Brown also got the most PPR points (25.5) among pass catchers without a touchdown. The next-best tally belonged to Jarvis Landry (18.4) followed by Christian Kirk (17.7).
• On the other end, Mecole Hardman (10.6 PPR) and Tyler Conklin (10.4) were the only two players with a touchdown scored to not reach at least 13.3 PPR points (the other 20 players with a TD did it).

"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 87% / 78% / negative-2%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions (in PPR leagues) just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
• The top-three receivers in yardage, all above 130 yards last weekend, also accrued 57% or more of their teams' total air yards (TAY%). Of course, the top-two men at it logged shares of 70%+ working in what we could easily call one-man offenses in Minny and Philly.
• One week into the season, pro-rating statistics is the most fun thing to do. That's why I'm highlighting here Justin Jefferson's pace to reach 3,128 yards over a full 17-game season, which would be the largest figure ever by more than 1,100 yards.
• Jerry Jeudy and Jarvis Landry reached their 100+ yard tallies in the most different of ways. Jeudy posted a 102-yard line thanks to his 73 YAC while Landry did most of his 114-yard damage through the air with just 19 YAC.
• Even then, Jeudy fell 10 YAC short of Jefferson's 83 on Week 1. And even (more) then, Jefferson's sky-high 83 YAC didn't even make for 50% of his total 184 yards on the day!
• Deebo Samuel, who is a very unique man inhabiting this thing we call World, has a 142.9% (yes, you read that right) YAC% after one week of play. That's because he tallied 14 total yards, of which 20 were YAC. He actually lost minus-6 yards on the air. Whoops.
• On a more natural outcome, Curtis Samuel's 87.3% YAC% was the largest mark followed by Agholor's 85.7% and Robert Tonyan's 80.6%. No other player reached a YAC% above 75 percent.

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 8% / 8% / 18%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

• Don't get too lost in this data with just one week of games in the books. Things will take a little bit of time to stabilize as more reps are factored into the stat lines.
• This season's kickoff was even crazier than last year's when Rondale Moore posted a ridiculous 16.1 YAC/R in Week 1. Jeudy's figure of 18.1 totally demolished that mark, and Burks' 11.0 YAC/R finished more than seven (!) yards below that one!
• The contrast in results is glaring, though, with Jeudy hitting paydirt once with a touchdown (and 102 total yards) compared to Burks' mediocre no-touchdown, 55-yard, 8.5-PPR game to start his NFL career.
• Similarly but in the opposite way, it's going to be hard to find any player averaging negative YAC/R when all is said and done next January. For now, though, Diontae Johnson's -0.3 YAC/R trail every other mark one game into the season. He ended his game racking up 55 total yards (57 AYDS) after losing two after one of his seven receptions.
• Only Donovan Peoples-Jones finished Week 1 with a square zero YAC figure.
• Johnson (-2) and Metcalf (5) were the only two players with 7+ targets and fewer than 10 YAC over their debut games this season.
• Five players found themselves in a position to rack up (given the xYAC model) 8.0+ YAC/R over their Week 1 games: Jeudy (8.1), Kirk (8.2), Burks (8.3), Tonyan (9.8), and Jefferson (9.9). Only the first three bested the expectations, with the latter two falling short of them.
• Mecole Hardman (0.5) was the only player in Week 1 to post an xYAC figure below 0.5, although he was skilled enough to completely outperform the expectations averaging a neat 3.2 YAC/R over his three receptions, including scoring a touchdown.
• Rest assured Jerry Jeudy's exploits won't be there for a long time. Jeudy outperformed the expectations by 10 (!) full yards, the only player with a figure larger than five yards.
• Jaylen Waddle and Robbie Anderson were the only two other players above 4.0+ YACAE in Week 1, which are much more reasonable figures but still high.
• Of the eight players with YACAE figures of 2.5+, two fell short of double-digit PPR points, two more scored between 10 and 13, and three topped 17 (two of those three got into the 20+ PPR realm).
• Mark Andrews, whose minus-3.2 YACAE figure trailed everyone else's mark, still scored 10.2 PPR points. The second-lowest mark (minus-1.8) belonged to Brandin Cooks but the Texans' WR put up 15.2 PPR points in Week 1.
• The top-24 PPR performers averaged 21.8 fantasy points. They also averaged a YACAE of 1.1 yards, thus outperforming the expectations by more than a yard.
• The top-24 YACAE performers averaged 2.4 YACAE. They also averaged only 14 PPR points.
• The bottom-24 PPR performers averaged 6.7 fantasy points. They also averaged a YACAE of 0.2 yards, slightly outperforming the expectations.
• The bottom-24 YACAE performers averaged minus-1.0 YACAE. They also averaged 11.6 PPR points.
• In other words, some correlation might be there, but definitely not a strong-enough one to go crazily chasing high-YACAE outperformers available in the WW or in via trade.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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