NextGen Stats - Running Back Breakdowns and Takeaways

We're officially past mid-season and if that doesn't make you sad enough, how about the fact that even the trade deadline has passed us now? Eh? Was that what ultimately broke your hopes of football staying on forever? Too bad. The good news, as always, is that a new week full of games is ahead. And most importantly for us (and me, who writes this) is that another week is in the books and we're ready to crunch some more data!

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Week 8 - The Running Game Is Alive!

One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

For the 2020 season, the NFL has introduced the concepts of:

• Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball-carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders?)
• Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
• Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected)

I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att", which is accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 40 rushing attempts.

Efficiency

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: negative-22%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Remember, the most "efficient" a rusher is, the least amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposition goal line in a straight route. The lower the number, the more north/south the runner.
• The last time we checked, back in Week 5, there were two players with EFF marks below 3.0 (compared to Week 2 seven). Now, three weeks after that, there is no rusher posting a season-average EFF below 3.0, with Miles Sanders ranking first at just 3.02. Not a huge difference, but things are starting to stabilize.
• Only Sanders and Gus Edwards have been able to stay below 3.1 EFF through eight weeks. It is working nicely for both, as they are tied for the 10th-most breakaway runs on the season. Sanders is averaging 0.8 per game to Edwards' 0.6.
• Sanders and Edwards' true ruFP/G are very different because of their usage. While Sanders is carrying the ball 14.2 times per game, Edwards is seeing just 9.1 ground-touches per game. On a 15-attempt basis, though, things would be much closer with 13 ruFP/G to 10 ruFP/G respectively.

• As you saw at the start of this section, the correlation between EFF and ruFP/G is negative, and not precisely small. At -22%, that means that EFF explains quite a bit of how ruFP/G works, and it does in an opposite relationship. The lower the EFF average, the greater the fantasy points.
• Even the actual ruFP/G (and not the 15-att prorated version) show this in the chart above, which is more than interesting as it doesn't account for different usage rates.
• Of the top-7 players in EFF (smallest values, all below 3.5), five are averaging at least 8.5 ruFP/G over the season. On a balanced workload of 15 attempts per game, all of them would be at 10+ ruFP/G, which is notable considering only 14 rushers overall in the whole league are posting that "actual ruFP/G" average through Week 8.
• Of those 14 RBs with 10.0+ ruFP/G, 10 have rushed the ball 90+ times. And of those 10, six have EFF marks below 3.9 with the other for clocking it at 4.26+ EFF values.
• Dalvin Cook leads the league in ruFP/G (20.9) and his EFF ranks in the 72nd percentile among qualified RBs (min. 40 rushing attempts).
• Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Aaron Jones are all averaging 13.0+ ruFP/G while having EFF marks below 3.79, all of them in the top half of the leaderboard (54rd+ percentile).

• As shown in the "trailers" part of the chart above in EFF, most rushers posting high EFF marks are struggling to rack up fantasy points.
• In fact, up to 12 RBs are currently averaging fewer than 5.0 ruFP/G, and that group has an average EFF of 4.15 with only three rushers (Brian Hill, Alexander Mattison, and Justin Jackson) with marks below 4.0 EFF.
• Looking at what would happen on a 15-attempt basis things don't get much better. Only Rex Burkhead would reach 10 ruFP/G on that workload with Giovani Bernard falling just short at 9.9 ruFP/G. They are averaging 4.08 and 4.01 EFF marks respectively.

• 34 qualified runners are current below 4.0 EFF marks. They are averaging 8.7 ruFP/G, and 10.6 FP per 15 attempts.
• 20 are at above 4.0 EFF marks. They average 6.9 ruFP/G, and 8.6 per 15 attempts. As you see, not even on RB1-workloads would they even reach the actual points averaged by the most-efficient rushers.

Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 16%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• I was starting to get anxious. The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points has never been overly big, and it is most descriptive than anything else, but it hadn't been very useful at least from the start of the season to the last time we checked it (-14%). It is now back to where it should be, with a positive 16% correlation with ruFP/G.
• Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that there normally is an almost non-existent relationship, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.
• Those seeing the highest number of stacked boxes being the ones scoring the highest fantasy points come to say that the best rushers face more bodies in the zone. That's pretty much all this metric has to it.

• That last point is not entirely true. Look at Benny Snell Jr.'s leading the 8+D% leaderboard... while posting just 4.8 ruFP/G on the season. Well, that happens when you play 90 snaps and rush the ball 44 times compared to just 3 targets. Defenses know what you're doing, so they'll close on you.
• Something similar happens to other one-dimensional backs. Gus Edwards and Damien Harris, for example, rank first and second in percentage of rushes compared to targets this season with just 3% and 4% of their opportunities coming through the air. You know they're rushing the rock, no matter what.
• On the opposite side of things, tailbacks such as Devin Singletary, Miles Sanders, and Claire Edwards-Elaire are all getting targeted in at least 22% of their opportunities.
• Frank Gore is bucking the trend, though. Gore only sees 8% of his opportunities via targets, yet he's not facing a lot of stacked boxes. The reason? J-E-T-S! Jets, Jets, Jets!

• Assuming a 15-attempt-prorated ruFP/G for everyone, the 25 RBs averaging 10+ ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes in 17.9 percent of their carries.
• On the contrary, the 29 averaging fewer than 10 ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes 16.4 percent of their carries. Close, but not there, showing how they are a little worse at their job.
• On smaller group-samples, this shows even more. Eight rushers would be at 13+ ruFP/15Att. All of them would be facing stacked boxes at a 14.6%+ rate with the exception of Miles Sanders (4.2), although his pass-catching prowess heavily influences that.
• As expected, only one of six players with averages below 7.0 ruFP/15att (Joshua Kelly) is facing more than 11.1% stacked boxes (20.7% of his carries).

Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 6%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Fast or slow, it doesn't matter much how quick you are at crossing the LOS in terms of scoring more or fewer fantasy points.
• The difference in ruFP/G between the top-15 players in TLOS (lower values) and the bottom-15 (higher TLOS) amounts to a measly 1.6 fantasy points. That's why the correlation is just at a super low 6% between TLOS and ruFP/G.
• That difference remains virtually the same if considering ruFP/15ruAtt on a pro-rated usage for all players, as it only jumps 0.1 FP to a 1.7 ruFP/15att distance between both groups.

• The last time we checked, only two rushers were averaging more than 3.0 seconds behind the LOS. It had gone down from seven players in Week 2. Currently, through Week 8, we're on the rise with five rushers at 3.02+ TLOS.
• Jerick McKinnon is, once more, leading the pack by a mile with his 3.2 seconds before crossing the LOS. That being said, though, four of the five "slowest" rushers have all rushed the ball fewer than 50 times, and even Melvin Gordon has "only" 90 carries himself.
• As I said, McKinnon has seen a very reduced use due to how the 49ers use him and their rotation of RBs, with just 47 carries over eight games. Pro-rated to 15 attempts per game, though, he'd be averaging 14.3 ruFP/15att (6th-most among qualified RBs) and he'd be the RB5 currently in "actual" ruFP/G if he was getting that workload.

• Among RBs averaging at least 13 ruFP/G, the TLOS marks vary between a low of 2.69 seconds (D'Andre Swift) and a high of 3.20 seconds (McKinnon).
• It is the same for the six rushers below 7.0 ruFP/G: their TLOS marks range from 2.66 (Gore) to 3.09 (Boston Scott).
• Thus the almost non-existent correlation between TLOS and ruFP/G.

ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 51% / 65% / 32% / 81%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• As anybody would have predicted, metrics directly related to fantasy scoring categories are the most predictive of fantasy performances.
• Through eight weeks of play, only three players are averaging more than 6.0 Y/A, although two (J.K. Dobbins and Phillip Lindsay) have rushed the ball 45 or fewer times, and Miles Sanders has only done so 71 times.
• Only one 90+ rushing attempt RB (Dalvin Cook, 122) is currently averaging more than 4.8 yards per carry (5.3). That 0.5-yard difference with Derrick Henry is the same as the one between Henry and 9th-best Melvin Gordon III (4.3).
• Of the top-10 players in YAC, who are all averaging 5+ YPC, only Cook (122) and Alvin Kamara (87) have rushed the ball more than 75 times through Week 8.

• King Henry is, well, the yardage king. Henry has 775 rushing yards on the season and that is 123 more than second-place Dalvin Cook. Truth be told, though, he's rushed the ball 166 times compared to Cook's 122.
• On a per-15-attempt basis, Henry would rank just 9th in ruFP/G (11.7). His actual ruFP/G is 17.9, which is 6.2 more fantasy points than he would be averaging if "limited" to just 15 rushing attempts per game. He'd have the biggest FP loss (6.2 FP) among all qualified receivers.
• Darrell Henderson Jr. (458) is the only running back with 450+ rushing yards in fewer than 100 attempts (95). He's averaging 10.1 ruFP/15att compared to his actual 8.0 ruFP/G.
• Rookie Joshua Kelley (3.2 YPC), along with veterans Frank Gore (3.5) and Devonta Freeman (3.2) is the only rusher with fewer than 3.6 YPC. All of them have rushed the ball more than 54 times on the season, and none is averaging more than 4.6 ruFP/G. They wouldn't improve that much on a 15-attempt-basis, getting to just 5.9 (Kelley), 5.3 (Freeman), and 6.4 (Gore) ruFP/G respectively...

• Cook's 10 touchdowns through Week 8 are absolutely insane and unparalleled this season. Even from a historical angle, Cook is one of only 10 players since 2000 to score 10+ rushing TDs inside the first eight weeks of the season... and the only one with that many in just 6 games played.
• The same as negative regression will probably come hunting Cook down the road, positive regression should appear on Henry's, Sanders', Josh Jacobs', and James Conner's (just to name a few) stat lines. While Cook is scoring every 12.2 rushing attempts, all of those others are rushing the ball more than 20 times between touchdowns.
• In fact, only Dalvin Cook and Todd Gurley II have logged more than 75 rushing attempts while scoring TDs every 17.5 or fewer attempts. Every other RB scoring touchdowns every fewer-than-20 carries hasn't rushed the ball more than 75 times (Aaron Jones), and the following man is Nick Chubb with just 57 rushing attempts.
• On the flip side of the coin, though, David Montgomery (117), Devin Singletary (93), and Joshua Kelley (82) are the only rushers averaging more than 68 attempts between scores (they have only one TD each). Clyde Edwards-Elaire (57) has the worst carry-to-TD rate among RBs with 2+ TD scored (Myles Gaskin is second needing 50 carries between scores).
• Of the 55 qualified RBs (min. 40 rushing attempts through Week 8), only Justin Jackson, Boston Scott, and Frank Gore have yet to score a touchdown. Passable for the first two (45 and 48 carries) but a tough swallow for Gore (96 carries).

YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 65% / 49% / 32% / 35% / 26%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Starting this year, the NFL has introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, etc...).
• The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
• The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
• The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in 5 of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.

• I don't think it surprises anyone at this point to find Dalvin Cook at the top of the RYOE leaderboard with 153 yards over expectation. He's posted 42 more than second-best Phillip Lindsay, and 51 more than third-best Nick Chubb.
• That has a lot to do with volume, though. Cook's 122 carries are more than double those of Lindsay (45) and Chubb (57). On a per-carry basis, it is in fact Lindsay (2.5) who leads every RB in RYOE/A followed by Raheem Mostert (1.9) and a two-man tie for third (Chubb and Dobbins; 1.8).

• Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins are both getting the most out of their carries without overperforming expectations that much. Even on a 0.0 RYOE/A, they'd lead the league with 5.0 YPC each. Damien Harris and Mark Ingram II (4.9) would be tied for third.
• At the other end, if we subtract his RYOE/A from his actual Y/A, Jordan Wilkins would trail all qualified rushers at just 3.3 YPC, followed by Mike Davis (3.6).

• Not only is Phillip Lindsay at the top of theY/A (2nd), RYOE (2nd), and RYOE/A (1st) leaderboards, but he's also the no. 1 RB in ROE% with a 60% rate of rushing attempts in which he's getting yards above expectation. Of the 45 times Lindsay has rushed the ball this season, he's racked up more yards than expected in 27 of them.
• Only two other players (Chris Carson, 53%; and Austin Ekeler, 52.1%) are posting ROE% rates above 50%. Carson has beaten expectations in 35 of his 66 carries, while Ekeler has done so in 26 of his 49.
• La'Mical Perine, the Jets rookie, has had a tough start to his career. He's rushed the ball 41 times through Week 8 but he's only getting more yards than expected in 22% of those carries (9 of 41 attempts). He's the only player below a 28 percent ROE% rate. If you remember, he's also the less-efficient rusher (4.69 EFF) among those with 40+ carries.

• With virtually half of the season played already, as many as 20 RBs are still posting negative RYOE/A marks. Only five of them are averaging 10+ ruFP/G, only two are above 12+ ruFP/G, and only Christian McCaffrey (19.8) is averaging more than 13 ruFP/G.
• Even with Perine's rather bad outings, his fellow New Yorker Devonta Freeman has been even worse than him in RYOE/A this season. Freeman is at -1.1 compared to Perine -1.0. No other player is below -0.8 ROE/A (Boston Scott).
• Gurley (8) and Jacobs (5) are the only RBs with 5+ rushing TDs and a negative RYOE/A mark on the season.

• The 25 RBs posting 10+ ruFP/15att are averaging 0.6 RYOE/A through Week 8. The 29 RBs below that fantasy-point average per 15 carries are averaging a negative-0.1 RYOE/A.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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