X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Next Gen Stats Season Review: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football updates for wide receivers and tight ends, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Time's up! The 2019 fantasy season is done and gone for good. Whether you play in a redraft league or are part of a dynasty format, the days of sitting at the edge of your couch and biting your nails are over. We have a tough eight-month desert to walk through ahead of us, but hey, the real NFL players are this close to kick-off and we will still enjoy football for another month and change, so you better get to it while it lasts! With the numbers in place and the games finished, it's time to wrap up the series and take a final look at who was who during this 2019 season.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our preseason primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

2019 Best and Worst Receivers - Next Gen Stats

The season, at least for us fantasy nuts is finally over. That is nothing good for our enjoyment of the fantasy game, but it is a time of calm and peace to enjoy the real NFL playoffs that we're also invested in. With all of the regular season numbers now in place, it is time to wrap up the Next Gen Stats series position by position.

This week I will go through the receiving positions, covering both wide receivers and tight ends. Today I'll provide a final update on how the league's WR/TEs have done in the different metrics we've already tackled during the season. I will only show a small number of names for each category, present the correlation with the fantasy points averaged by the player, skip the gory-details, and instead provide a new "combined" leaderboard at the end of the column.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 43 targets for both WR and TE.

 

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: negative-15% / negative-24%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

  • I have sorted the leaderboard by SEP just because it has a little higher relationship with fantasy points. As you can see, most of the players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
  • As already was the case three weeks ago, most of the highest SEP values are attached to tight ends, which is reasonable considering they are often less dangerous and can be given more space. While this has been the case for the best TE of the year on FP/G (Austin Hooper, SEP 3.9), it has not held for other good players at the position like Travis Kelce (3.0), George Kittle (3.0), and Zach Ertz (2.7).
  • Only five tight ends are averaging CUSH marks at or over 6.0: Mark Andrews (6.0), Zach Ertz (6.0), Ryan Griffin (6.3), Nick Boyle (6.4), and Jacob Hollister (7.1). That is less significant compared to the 37 wide receivers with such marks, led by Robert Woods (7.5).
  • The other side of the CUSH leaderboard is a little more balanced, although not by that much. Three tight ends have CUSH marks at or under 5.0 (George Kittle, Blake Jarwin, Dawson Knox) while 14 wide receivers have such marks. The lowest CUSH among WR belongs to Robby Anderson at 4.2, followed by Preston Williams and John Brown (4.5).
  • Only two tight ends are averaging more than 15 FP/G on the season (Austin Hooper and Travis Kelce), but they have very separated values in both CUSH and SEP, which proves the low relation of those metrics with actual fantasy scoring.
  • Something similar happens with the top receivers. Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin post the highest fantasy points per game, yet Thomas has a 5.4 CUSH to Godwin's 6.5. Cooper Kupp averages a bit fewer points (he is still WR7 though) and his SEP is of 3.3 compared to Thomas's 2.6 and Godwin's 2.8. Again, nothing really meaningful is present in this set of data points.

 

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 20% / 71%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

  • Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly-related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy point he scores.
  • This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Every player shown at the top of the table (and in fact, every player with a TAY% of 30 or higher) is averaging double-digit fantasy points this season.
  • Chris Conley is the first player to average fewer than 10 FP/G (9.0) with the highest TAY% at 29.1 percent. He's just ahead of James Washington (9.4) who has a 28.7 TAY%.
  • At the other end, no wide receiver nor tight end is averaging double-digit FP/G with a TAY% under 10. John Ross is the first one to make the cut (14.3 PF/G) while having a 10.1 TAY%. The next player of that profile would be Evan Engram (13.7) with a low 11.1 TAY%, followed by Austin Hooper (16.0) with a TAY% of 11.7.
  • Mark Andrews is the tight end with the highest share of air yards, having a 28.9 percent share so far. Kelce is second with 26.1 TAY% and lastly, Darren Waller (25.5%) and Zach Ertz (25.3%) are the only other two even remotely close to those marks, with no other TE getting a 20% share.
  • Also through 14 weeks, just three WRs have a share under 10%: Albert Wilson (4.5 TAY%), Russell Gage (8.3), and Mecole Hardman (9.2).

 

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 86% / 85% / 22% / 73%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

  • Can we crown Michel Thomas already? This guy is breaking every possible football limit known to man.
  • Thomas' catch rate (82.3%) is second only to Ryan Griffin (82.9%). The problem is that Griffin has been targeted 41 times at the tight end position compared to Thomas' 147 as the leading receiver of the Saints. Only two other players with 100-plus targets on the season are averaging catch rates at or over 70%: Amari Cooper (70% on 100 targets) and Chris Godwin (71.7% on 113). Thomas is insane.
  • As is always the case with touchdowns, they are important to get some extra juice in the shape of fantasy points, but they aren't that important to have great players around. Look at Robert Woods. He's the WR18 on the season and has only one score to his name.
  • None of D.J. Moore (4), Julio Jones (4), and Davante Adams (3) have reached five touchdowns, though all of them are averaging over 16.0 FP/G. At the other end, Darren Fells has scored seven touchdowns yet he only is averaging 7.9 FP/G.

 

"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 90% / 84%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

  • Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
  • Even with a low average Air Yards value (7.7 per reception), Thomas leads the league in total yards gained through the air with 892. Mike Evans is second (869), followed by Cooper (816).
  • That doesn't mean Thomas is not good after the catch. In fact, he's second (532)) in total YAC only behind Chris Godwin (535), with Woods (525) rounding out the top three.
  • A total of 24 players have gained more yards after the catch than through the air. Of those 24, only eight are averaging more than 10 FP/G, and only seven are wide receivers compared to 17 tight ends.
  • Dallas Goedert's 396 total yards have the highest YAC profile of the league, as only 116 of them are air yards and the other 280 (70.7%) came after the catch. He's the only player in the league with a 70%/30% YAC/aYDS split. Vance McDonald is second at 67%/33%.
  • Calvin Ridley and Marvin Jones have the completely opposite profile. Ridley has gained 84% of his yards through the air and Jones 83%, and both of them are virtually averaging 15.0 FP/G.

 

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 6% / negative-5% / 11%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

  • Mecole Hardman and John Ross are getting closer and closer to finishing the season with 10-plus YAC/R, the only two players currently doing it. The sample size isn't overly large, as both of them have missed time, but the feat is really incredible.
  • A.J. Brown's case is a little more appealing, as he almost doubles the number of targets he has seen over the other two. His 9.4 YAC/R are virtually the same and he has clearly outperformed the expectations with 5.5 YAC/R on the season, good for a second place in the leaderboard.
  • There are nine players with an xYAC/R mark at or above 6.0, and three are tight ends. T.J. Hockenson (0.3 +/-) might have fallen a little short of the other two, but Noah Fant (2.4 +/-) should be one to keep our eyes on as his career progresses as he has beaten none other than George Kittle (1.2 +/-) in his limited chances.
  • Breshad Perriman's late explosion in the Tampa Bay offense has nothing to do with what he's done earlier in the season. He's got the lowest +/- by far (negative-3.2, with the second-lowest being at negative-1.5 by Kenny Stills) and has clearly underperformed his "after-the-catch chances", although his 296 yards on 19 receptions have been good for 15.6 per receptions and a couple of touchdowns.
  • None of these three metrics is meaningful when evaluating players in the fantasy football context. Of players averaging 16-plus FP/G, five have negative +/-, nine have positive +/-, and another one sits at zero.

 

Combined Next Gen Stats Leaderboard

To build this leaderboard I used every metric that is part of the NGS site and put everything together in a combined score I labeled "NGS" in the following table. The calculation of each player's NGS score is simple. I calculated where each player ranked for each metric and then multiplied that rank for the correlation between that metric and my FP/G metric. Players ranked higher (closer to one) in each category will have lower scores for those categories. In the end, I added up each player's scores from all of the categories getting a single NGS score.

The lower the NGS, the better the player for fantasy as each category was already weighted given its correlation with the FP/G metric. Here are the results:

NGS Leaderboard Notes:

  • The rushing and passing NGS-leaderboards were somehow close at the top between at least two players. Not the case here. Michael Thomas stole the show and ran with it in such a massive way that his NGS score of 38.9 points was a stupid 22.2 points better than that of second-best WR Julio Jones. The difference between Thomas and Jones is the same as that between Jones and sixth-best Tyler Lockett.
  • Let's recap: Thomas ranked first in four of 14 NGS metrics, second in two, and fourth in another one. He was also the best receiver in FP/G with 23.4 per game, far from second-best Chris Godwin (19.7). No other player finished the season inside the top-five of more categories, with Julio Jones, Devante Parker, and Marvin Jones being the closest ones ranking inside the top-five of four categories each.
  • Julio Jones could have been expected to be at the top of the NGS leaderboard, but Parker and Marvin were pleasant "unexpected" surprises. Parker excelled in SEP, YDS, aYDS, and TDs. Marvin did so in SEP, YAC%, TDs, and xYAC. Too bad for the latter, Jones' best numbers weren't part of the most fantasy-impactful metrics.
  • Chris Godwin is a great case to study and shows how many of the NGS and advanced metrics we have at hand can be straight discarded when assessing the quality of players in fantasy leagues. Godwin finished the year as the second-best receiver in FP/G yet he only ranked 13th in NGS.
  • Kudos to Travis Kelce as he was the only tight end to get inside the 20-best NGS receiving players of the year. Zach Ertz was the 21st-best, a mile away from Kelce. Kelce was also the best tight end in classic FP/G edging George Kittle by a hair. Although Kelce ranked very high in NGS, he only made the top-5 of one metric (total YDS), yet he finished with an average rank of 39th among all qualified (125) players and only edged by Jared Cook among tight ends (Cook finished ranked 39th with all metrics considered).
  • Julio Jones was better on average (21st) than Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs (25th) when taking every metric rank into consideration. Once the correlations were factored in, though, he could only finish second in NGS score while Diggs dropped all the way down to the 19th (!) position.
  • The rookie Terry McLaurin wasn't overly great in any metric (he could only rank third in SEP and top-10 in other two categories) but he finished with an overall rank of 30th all metrics considered. A quite promising season for him in Washington and definitely someone to keep an eye on going forward.
  • Dede Westbrook had a season to forget. He was expected to be the Jaguars' No. 1 receiver and although he broke the 100-target mark he could only average 10.5 FP/G, a score of 291 NGS (52nd-best), and the worst average rank among all WR/TEs with at least 100 targets (77th).
  • Both Robert Woods and Darren Waller had terrific seasons while only catching two and three TDs respectively. Consider a positive regression in that category next season and a bump in both their FP/G and NGS score if that happens. Jared Cook (nine TDs) and Darius Slayton (eight TDs) were "saved" by that highly volatile metric and even with those high numbers, they could only average 12 FP/G and no fewer than 243 NGS points, making both of them highly risky bets come the 2020 season.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Otto Lopez18 mins ago

Steals Two Bases Monday
Austin Riley22 mins ago

Drives In Two On Monday
Bryson Stott28 mins ago

Hits Three-Run HR On Monday
José Ramírez33 mins ago

Jose Ramirez Homers, Drives In Four On Monday
Spencer Schwellenbach39 mins ago

Notches Quality Start Vs. Cardinals
Camilo Doval3 hours ago

Earns Third Save
Hunter Brown4 hours ago

Hurls Gem Monday
Francisco Lindor4 hours ago

Launches Two Big Flies On Monday
Sean Murphy4 hours ago

Blasts Three-Run Homer
Agustín Ramírez4 hours ago

Agustin Ramirez Notches Two Hits In MLB Debut
Kyle Manzardo4 hours ago

Stays Hot With Homer In Third Consecutive Game
Walker Buehler4 hours ago

Sharp In Win Over White Sox
Justin Crawford5 hours ago

Continues To Show Well At Triple-A
Kyle Teel6 hours ago

Hits Third Home Run Of 2025 On Sunday
Tennessee Titans6 hours ago

Titans Have Turned Down Offers For No. 1 Overall Pick
6 hours ago

Saints Targeting Jaxson Dart?
Asbel Gonzalez6 hours ago

Running Wild At Single-A
Kirk Cousins6 hours ago

Falcons Have Had Trade Discussions Regarding Kirk Cousins
Gustavo Campero7 hours ago

Leads Minors In Hits After Four-Hit Day
Atlanta Falcons7 hours ago

Falcons Could Take A Tight End On Day 2 Of The Draft
7 hours ago

Steelers Very Interested In Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders
Sam Howell7 hours ago

Seahawks Open To Trading Sam Howell
Las Vegas Raiders7 hours ago

Raiders Not Afraid To Take A Running Back Early In The Draft
James Triantos7 hours ago

Dealing With Leg Tightness
NFL7 hours ago

Shavon Revel Expected Back Around The Start Of Training Camp
Tylor Megill8 hours ago

Looks Excellent On Monday
Gavin Williams8 hours ago

Records Eight Strikeouts
Cade Smith8 hours ago

Earns First Save
Jesus Tinoco8 hours ago

Notches Second Save
Aaron Gordon8 hours ago

Cleared For Action
NFL10 hours ago

Josh Simmons May Not Be Cleared Until August
NFL10 hours ago

Jihaad Campbell A Candidate To Start On PUP List
NFL10 hours ago

Mykel Williams Still Hampered By Ankle Injury
NFL10 hours ago

Will Johnson Could Fall In Draft Due To Knee Injury
10 hours ago

Shedeur Sanders Could Fall Out Of First Round
10 hours ago

Cam Skattebo Visiting With Lions, Titans
Dallas Cowboys10 hours ago

Cowboys Expected To Pick Up Tyler Smith's Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles10 hours ago

Cam Jurgens, Eagles Agree On Four-Year Extension
C.J. Stroud11 hours ago

Expects To Be "Running The Show" In New Offense
J.J. McCarthy11 hours ago

"No Limitations" For J.J. McCarthy
San Francisco 49ers11 hours ago

Fred Warner Could Stay Away From Offseason Program
Ousmane Dieng11 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
George Kittle11 hours ago

May Not Take Part In Offseason Workouts
Kevin Love11 hours ago

Remains Away From Team
Brock Purdy11 hours ago

Might Not Participate In Voluntary Workouts
Terry Rozier11 hours ago

Hurts Ankle Monday
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable For Game 2
Isaiah Stewart12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Game 2 Against Knicks
Trent Frederic12 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Monday
Leon Draisaitl12 hours ago

Returns To Oilers Lineup For Postseason Opener
Jake Walman12 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Brett Kulak12 hours ago

Ready To Play Monday
Aliaksei Protas12 hours ago

Expected To Return During First-Round Series
Miro Heiskanen13 hours ago

Out On Monday
Ross Colton13 hours ago

Uncertain For Game 2
Gabriel Landeskog13 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Auston Matthews21 hours ago

Finishes Game 1 With Two Assists
Mitchell Marner21 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Postseason Opener
Matt Boldy21 hours ago

Bags Two Goals In Losing Effort
Brett Howden21 hours ago

Scores Twice In Sunday's Win
Logan Stankoven21 hours ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Brenden Dillon22 hours ago

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Cody Glass22 hours ago

Injured In Game 1 Loss
Isaiah Stewart1 day ago

Iffy For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon1 day ago

Listed As Probable For Game 2
Gabriel Vilardi1 day ago

To Remain Out For Game 2
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Could Be An Option Monday
Martin Fehérváry2 days ago

Martin Fehervary Iffy For Game 1
Tanner Jeannot2 days ago

Remains Week-To-Week, Out For Game 1
Zeev Buium2 days ago

Makes NHL Debut In Playoff Opener
Anthony Stolarz2 days ago

Makes First Career Postseason Start
Jaylen Brown3 days ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Ja Morant3 days ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams3 days ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis3 days ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.3 days ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince3 days ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
Isaiah Stewart3 days ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson3 days ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura3 days ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves3 days ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
Luka Dončić3 days ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James3 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard3 days ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
Lucas Glover5 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger6 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka6 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas6 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele6 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Maverick McNealy6 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry6 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland6 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns6 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala6 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai6 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre6 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap6 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley6 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF