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Eric Samulski evaluates starting pitchers who have developed new pitches for 2021 to determine if these additions to their pitch mix will increase fantasy baseball value and make them breakout performers.
There are few things more exciting in Spring Training than learning that a pitcher developed a new pitch. It's a little bit like waking up to find that you've been given a new toy. We're blinded by the possibilities of this new toy. Think of the fun we can have with it. Think of the newness it brings to our day. Think of the jealousy from our friends who didn't get a new toy.
Only, we sometimes forget that the toy is part of a much larger collection, much like a new pitch is part of a pitcher's larger arsenal. The new pitch, like the toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has. Much like a toy that's the exact same as a toy we already have makes us forget the older toy. (Yes, I'm going to keep running with the toy analogy. I'm an English teacher after all). So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I went back to watch the pitch in action during Spring Training outings to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. I've used some footage and, if possible, created some overlays using the camera angles we have at our disposal to show how the new pitch should work in tandem with the pitches that the pitcher already throws. From there, I tried to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.
As more pitchers showcase new pitches during spring games, I'll put a few more of these together because I don't think we can accurately evaluate the effectiveness or impact of a new pitch until we can see it in action. It's also important to note that for many of these pitchers, this is the first time they've thrown these new pitches in a game situation, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time, and I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. Be sure to also check out the rest of my articles in this "Pitchers With New Pitches" series for analysis and deep dives on more starting pitchers.
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Tyler Glasnow
"Slutter"
Well, after three starts we finally saw the new slider-cutter hybrid in action and it's filthy.
However, what's equally impressive to me is the way that he was also able to showcase it as a strike pitch.
Now, the image below shows that he didn't have 100% control of it. He often missed up, which is common with a new breaking pitch since pitchers are still figuring out how much they need to snap it off or twist the wrist, plus getting comfortable with the release point. However, the majority of the "slutters" he threw were either on the inside part of the plate to lefties or buried down and in, which is exactly what we want to see.
The ability to command this pitch for strikes will be huge for Glasnow since he has really been just a two-pitch pitcher. In fact, the fastball-curve combo accounts for 95.4% of his pitch mix. That's not going to cut it if he wants to pitch deep into games or emerge as a top-tier starter in the league. The change-up is not that third pitch, but maybe this "slutter" is.
In order for that to be the case, I'm not super concerned about it as a swing-and-miss pitch. We know Glasnow can miss bats. He had a 14% SwStr last year and a 52.8% whiff rate on the curve alone. Adding the "slutter" as an out pitch is not a bad thing, but, to me, it's more important that he can add it as another pitch he can command for strikes.
While not a typical weapon for righties to use against lefties the way a change-up might be, he can still bust lefites inside to get ahead or keep them focused on protecting the inside part of the plate and then use the fastball, which appears to be 10+ MPH faster, to go up and away for strikeouts. Again, we don't need Glasnow to be better at striking hitters out, but it doesn't hurt and the new "slutter" appears to be a weapon that can make him the most important thing of all: consistent.
VERDICT:
A game-changer. OK, I'm trying not to get overly excited because it's only one outing, but a legit third pitch for Glasnow that has two shapes that he can command for strikes and use as an out pitch would be a huge development for him.
Marcus Stroman
Split-Change (and Four-Seam Fastball)
Stroman missed all of last season, but was solid with the Blue Jays and Mets in 2019, posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only a 4.1% barrel rate allowed over 184 innings pitched. The issue for Stroman was, and has been, that he was unable to miss bats consistently. A 20.5% strikeout rate isn't bad, but his 10.1% SwStr is relatively average and only the second time in his entire career that he hit a 10% mark.
The slider, which by all accounts is his best pitch, had a 35.3% whiff rate and 16.7% SwStr, but beyond that, he was throwing a slew of pitches and not getting a tremendous amount of whiffs. His two other primary offerings, the sinker and cutter, had 6.5% and 11.7% SwStr rates respectively with CSW's in the mid-20s and PutAway rates below 39%.
They also simply weren't great pitches for him. The sinker had a deserved ERA (dERA) of 5.35 with a .306 average against, 42% Hard Hit rate, and 11.3% walk rate, while the cutter had a 4.99 dERA and a .296 average, and .475 slugging against. Essentially, Stroman was getting by with only one plus pitch and then inducing a high groundball rate on his other offerings. So we can see why he felt the need to introduce a new pitch. Although he had a changeup before, he threw it only 5.3% of the time with minimal success. Plus, the new split change works even better with his main pitches, which you can see in the overlay below.
With only a cutter, slider, and sinker, before, Stroman had nothing that really dove hard away from left-handed batters. He worked up and in on lefties with the cutter and down and in with the slider and was able to keep the sinker low and away but it didn't have this kind of hard bite and, as shown above, was clearly not a swing and miss pitch. It's also part of the reason lefties hit .290/.339/.436 off of him in 2019.
This new split-change (and a four-seam fastball that plays well off of it) is not only, finally, a weapon to neutralize lefties, but allows Stroman to attack a different area of the plate, giving him weapons that he can use in a perfect triangle (top of the zone and both corners). That is ideal for pitching success.
VERDICT:
Hugely important. Could lead to major K% gains and help improve his results across the board by limiting his problems with lefty-righty splits.
Pablo Lopez
Slider (or Slurve)
I was already a big Pablo Lopez fan coming off a season in which he pitched to a 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 12.1% SwtSr while limiting hard contact with a 4.3% barrel rate and 85.7 MPH average exit velocity. The success was driven by a strong pairing of his fastball and changeup. The fastball, which sits at 94 MPH, has a little bit of natural cut and registered a 34.3% CSW in 2020 on the back of a 65% zone percentage.
The change-up, on the other hand, finds the zone was less but is Lopez's best swing-and-miss pitch with an 18.1% SwStr. The two pitches work well together, coming out of his hand at similar release points, which allows the change-up to be extra impactful with its 33 inches of drop and 16.7 inches of arm side run.
The issue for Pablo has been finding a third pitch. The sinker, which he threw, 22.5% of the time in 2020, was only marginally effective. It induces groundballs at an impressive 64.8% clip, gave up a 2.2% barrel rate, and had a 2.3 dERA, but didn't miss bats with only a 21.3% CSW. My main concern is also that it attacks the same part of the zone that Pablo's change-up does.
Even though the sinker is more of a strike pitch, and the changeup is more of an out pitch, there is only 5.5 MPH difference between the two and it leaves open a whole corner of the plate that Pablo has really nothing to attack with. Until the introduction of a slider, or, I guess more specifically, the tweaking of his curveball.
Pablo only threw the cutter 8.4% of the time and the curve 7.0% last year, so trying to make one (or both) of those pitches into a more impactful offering is a strong idea. We can see from the video below that he keeps a lot of the same shape of his previous curve but is thrown a little harder and with a little less of a hump. This allows it to read more similar to his fastball out of the hand than it would if it had the more pronounced arc.
With this, Pablo can attack the triangle of the plate, which I mentioned above with Stroman. It allows him to add more deception and gives him a pitch that can bore in on lefties, something that may help him since lefties hit .280 off of him during his career. His current approach to lefties has relied heavily on just fastball-changeup, which, as you can see below, means he tends to avoid attacking an entire section of the plate against lefties.
This additional pitch could be a good strikeout pitch, but what I believe is more important is that it will keep lefties from anticipating something on the outside part of the plate. In his most recent spring start, we can see exactly that.
With the exception of one "slurve" which he clearly missed with, all of the other pitches are down and in to lefties, the exact area of the strike zone that we want to see him begin to attack more regularly. Now, we just need to see how confident he feels in using this pitch against left-handed hitters. He did throw three in one at-bat against Tommy Edman, inducing a weak groundball to first, so that's a sign for optimism.
VERDICT:
Moderately impactful. I'm only hesitant because we're still trying to figure out what exactly this pitch is and how he'll use it. However, I'm going to assume this new "slurve" will replace both the curve and cutter, which I am in full support of. This adds an entirely new dimension to Pablo Lopez's pitch mix and makes him a more dynamic pitcher. I currently have him as my 31st-ranked starter and feel super confident with him there.
Jakob Junis
Cutter
Junis struggled last year. He upped his slider usage to make it his primary offering, and he was able to register a 10.8% SwStr rate, .243 xBA, and 3.90 dERA on the pitch. However, he didn't really have anything else to pair with it besides a 91 MPH fastball, which wasn't enough to keep hitters off the slider. When it got hit, it got hit hard. He had an 11.5% barrel rate on the slider, backed up by a 10.1% deserved barrel rate.
He tried throwing a sinker to offer another look, but the sinker allowed a 97.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 78.6% hard-hit percentage. He simply wasn't going to be effective as a two-pitch pitcher, which is why the cutter is so important for him. For starters, look at the way it pairs with the fastball and slider.
That is a deadly combination against right-handed batters. The cutter and slider attack similar parts of the plate, but at vastly different speeds and with a separation in movement, so it's hard for the hitter to discern which pitch he's swinging at. It also allows for the below-average velocity on his fastball to play up a little more.
This is a strong new offering for Junis, but I still worry that he has very little to attack lefties with on the outside half of the plate. Both the cutter and slider bite down and in, and he can use the fastball up, but lefties can sit on pitches inside against him, and he simply doesn't have the offering to keep them honest off the plate away. If that sinker or change-up can be more effective this year, then there's a chance that Junis can reach a new level. But, until then, I think he can be an effective multi-inning reliever who will be particularly impactful against right-handed bats.
VERDICT:
Meaningful but more for real baseball. Perhaps in deep-leagues, he can be a useful bulk reliever, but there will always be options to fill that role.
Nick Pivetta
Slider
This is cheating because Pivetta actually had a slider before, but he simply never really threw it. Before Pivetta was traded to Boston, he threw a slider 9.3% of the time. In his two starts with Boston, he threw it 28.2% of the time. On the season, the slider had a 20.3% SwStr and 39% CSW, so it's a really intriguing pitch for Pivetta's arsenal, especially considering the inconsistency of his knuckle-curve. If Pivetta is able to be a primary fastball-slider pitcher with the change to mix in against lefties, then he is able to hit all corners of the strike zone.
VERDICT:
Intrigued but not overwhelmed. Look, Pivetta is a flawed pitcher, but the raw talent is there. The slider is a great addition for him, but he needs to be able to locate it consistently and he also needs to be able to throw the changeup for strikes consistently and he needs to keep the fastball up in the zone. Those are all things he is clearly working on this Spring Training, so I'm keeping an eye on him in case it starts to click.
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