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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the New England Patriots as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
The Patriots' offense is going to look completely different this year. New offensive coordinator. New quarterback. New receivers. If the 2023 season leaves a bad taste in your mouth, I get it, but this isn't that team anymore. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect a great offense, but this whole offense is completely unknown. Often, that can be scary for fantasy managers, but there's upside in the unknown. Fantasy managers should be intrigued by how many young players they added this offseason. After all, what if they're good? What if the No. 3 overall pick, a quarterback, turns out to be good? What if the No. 37 overall pick, a receiver, turns out to be good? Based on their draft capital, neither should be shocking, but their ADPs aren't taking that possibility seriously enough.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. Be sure to bookmark our fantasy football ADP page for the latest industry consensus ADPs. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Fantasy football rookie rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Team Previews
| NFC West | AFC West | NFC South | AFC South | NFC East | AFC East | NFC North | AFC North |
| Rams | Broncos | Saints | Colts | Cowboys | Jets | Lions | Browns |
| Seahawks | Chargers | Buccaneers | Titans | Giants | Patriots | Bears | Ravens |
| 49ers | Raiders | Panthers | Jaguars | Commanders | Bills | Vikings | Bengals |
| Cardinals | Chiefs | Falcons | Texans | Eagles | Dolphins | Packers | Steelers |
Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Drake Maye: QB32, ADP 198
Jacoby Brissett: QB35, ADP 229
Fantasy managers are avoiding the Patriots’ offense as though they are incredibly confident that New England will be bad offensively. Rhamondre Stevenson is the only player drafted in the first 150 picks or 12 rounds. The first player selected after Stevenson was his backup, Antonio Gibson. Considering how many unknowns are on this team, are we sure we should be confident they’ll be bad?
New England will have a new offensive coordinator. They’ll have a new quarterback, either Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye, but fantasy managers should expect to see Maye sometime this season. They’ll also have a brand-new group of receivers, essentially. Last year, Demario Douglas played just 46% of the snaps, but that number should be closer to 70% this year. Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker will likely replace last year’s versions of DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The unknown can be scary, but it doesn’t need to mean bad. Before we get to the quarterbacks, let’s briefly overview Alex Van Pelt, the new offensive coordinator.
He had been the Browns’ offensive coordinator for the last four years, since 2020. Below, you’ll see a table of where Van Pelt’s offenses have ranked in several statistics over the years. One thing to keep in mind is that personnel drives decision-making. From 2020-2022, Van Pelt had Nick Chubb at running back. You can see they’ve been a run-heavy offense all four years, but in 2023, the efficiency took a nose dive, coinciding with Chubb’s early-season injury. His offenses have been tailored to the run thus far, but part of that could be due to the quarterback play.
| Year | Total Points | Total Yards | Points Per Drive | Yards Per Play | Pass Attempts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Pass YPA | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | Rush YPA |
| 2020 | 14th | 16th | 11th | 11th | 28th | 24th | 13th | 16th | 4th | 3rd | 5th | 5th |
| 2021 | 20th | 18th | 20th | 17th | 28th | 27th | 20th | 16th | 9th | 4th | 7th | 1st |
| 2022 | 18th | 14th | 18th | 17th | 21st | 22nd | 19th | 19th | 5th | 6th | 6th | 11th |
| 2023 | 10th | 16th | 23rd | 28th | 5th | 19th | 16th | 28th | 4th | 12th | 14th | 26th |
| Average Rank | 15.50 | 16.00 | 18.00 | 18.25 | 20.50 | 23.00 | 17.00 | 19.75 | 5.50 | 6.25 | 8.00 | 10.75 |
He’s had Baker Mayfield, Brissett, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Flacco in his four years. Not exactly a stellar cast of signal-callers. However, regarding the offenses’ overall output, they mainly operated at league-average to slightly below-league-average rate in terms of overall yards and points. There’s nothing about Van Pelt that should overly excite or concern you. He’s a fine coordinator, nothing special, nothing terrible. He did solid with what he was given in Cleveland, which, from a quarterback and pass-catcher lens, wasn’t much. We might think the same is true in New England, but the truth is, we have no idea. Maye could be really good! He was the No. 3 overall pick, after all!
Maye red-shirted in 2021 and became the starter in his second season. He completed 65.7% of his passes and finished with 4,293 yards, 37 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Regarding box score scouting, Maybe he seemingly took a step back during his final year at North Carolina. He finished with 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He completed 63.3% of his passes. However, in 2022, he threw 639 passes compared to just 506 in 2023. His yard-per-attempt average increased from 8.3 to 8.5.
In both seasons as a starter, Maye finished with a PFF passing grade of over 89.0 and an adjusted completion percentage of 75.4%. In his final season at UNC, he didn’t get as much help from his receivers as he did the previous season. Despite throwing 133 fewer passes, the Tar Heels had four more dropped passes. His No. 1 Devontez Walker was suspended this past season for the first few games. NFL Draft Expert Lance Zierlein of NFL.com had this to say about Maye,
“Maye’s size and arm talent jump off the tape immediately. He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that gets crowds (and evaluators) on their feet. The combination of traits and tape make him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.”
Some of the same things were said about Justin Herbert when he entered the league. He was also seen as a project with a big arm and many physical gifts. Maye could be really good, and given his draft capital, it should be more than the expectation.
One of the things that is not being talked about enough is Maye’s rushing ability. In his two seasons as a starter, Maye had 245 attempts, 1,481 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Rushing continues to be a fantasy football cheat code. While we shouldn’t expect Maye to be Lamar Jackson or even Kyler Murray, he certainly has the collegiate history and athleticism to provide Trevor Lawrence-like rushing stats. That’s roughly 350-400 rushing yards and 3-5 touchdowns.
That may not sound like a lot, but it would give him an extra 3.62 PPG. Another component working against Maye is the unknowns within his receiving corps. However, for the final nine games of the season, where Douglas played at least 49% of the snaps, he averaged 6.9 receptions, 4.3 receptions, and 46.4 yards per game over 17 games, equating to 117 targets, 74 receptions, and 790 yards. Considering the poor quarterback play and offensive structure, that's a pretty good rookie season. While he won’t be a No. 1 receiver, he can be a good slot receiver.
Hunter Henry is a solid but unspectacular tight end. The real wild cards come with Polk and Baker. In the receiver section, we’ll cover their college careers more in-depth, but what if they’re good? Polk wrapped up a senior season with 69 receptions, 1,159 yards, and nine touchdowns. Baker had 52 receptions, 1,139 yards, and seven touchdowns. Polk was drafted early in the second round and Baker in the fourth. What if, because they’re unknowns, we’re underestimating them?
Maye’s price is incredibly cheap, considering the upside of his draft capital and rushing ability. While it’s a long shot, there are some similarities between the Patriots and last year’s Texans. Houston had a rookie quarterback with high draft capital (C.J. Stroud) and an unknown group of receivers. Because of that, fantasy managers largely ignored him and his pass-catchers. That ended up being a terrible mistake. Even if Maye, Polk, and the rest of the pass-catchers don’t hit like that, there’s still plenty of room for upside at their prices.
while it’s unlikely there will be a “This Year’s Houston Texans” Team…
there is ONE team that fits the criteria
[ Highly Drafted Rookie Quarterback ]
[ Unestablished Receiving Weapons ]
[ New Coaching Staff ]NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS pic.twitter.com/kU3inbNzRV
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) June 28, 2024
The downside to Maye is knowing when he’s going to start. Eliot Wolf is the vice president of player personnel for the Patriots and ran their draft this season. His old man was Ron Wolf, who had been the general manager of the Packers and had made the draft and development plan famous. Eliot mentioned that Brissett is just good enough to utilize such an approach.
Brissett brings minimal upside, but he brings experience, consistency, and dependability. He doesn’t turn the ball over. He won’t make any “wow” plays, but he’s not going to make plays that hurt you, either. He makes the easy plays and gives his defense and his skilled players a chance to win the game. There’s something to be said for the real-life games played on the field, but Brissett offers minimal appeal for fantasy managers. He can be completely ignored.
Verdict: Buy Drake Maye, Sell Jacoby Brissett
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Rhamondre Stevenson: RB18, ADP 64
Antonio Gibson: RB50, ADP 153
Stevenson has been one of the quieter off-season winners at running back. The Patriots were one of the worst offenses in the league last year. This was largely driven by their abysmal quarterback play, which was only spared from being the worst in the league because Zach Wilson exists. One way or another, Brissett or Maye will provide much more effective quarterback play. They also added two rookie pass-catchers, which was desperately needed. For goodness sake, their No. 1 receiver was a 5-foot-8, 190-pound rookie receiver drafted in the sixth round, and their No. 2 pass-catcher was Ezekiel Elliott.
Last season, Stevenson averaged 13.36 carries per game, while Elliott handled 8.63 in the first 12 weeks before Stevenson suffered a high-ankle sprain that effectively ended his season. Elliott has since been replaced by Gibson, who averaged just 4.06 carries last year. While that was the lowest of Gibson’s career, it does present the possibility that Stevenson’s touch total will increase this season.
The biggest area where Elliott hindered Stevenson last season was close to the end zone. From Weeks 1-12, Elliott handled 57.1% of the carries inside the 5-yard line and 50.0% inside the 10-yard line. Stevenson was at 42.9% and 50.0%, respectively. For the 2023 season, Gibson handled just 5.9% of Washington’s carries inside the 5-yard line and just 4.3% inside the 10. Assuming the Patriots’ offense is slightly better than last year, a shallow bar to cross, and with these increased scoring opportunities, Stevenson has a great chance to score several more touchdowns this season.
While it’s very reasonable to expect Stevenson to get more carries and scoring opportunities in 2024, if there’s one area where Gibson could be a net-negative for him, it’s in the passing game. Last year, Gibson finished with a 9.6% target share and 57 targets. In Weeks 1-12, Stevenson had 49 targets and a 12.8% target share. Meanwhile, Zeke had 24 targets and a 6.3% target share.
With the added pass-catchers, the overall target share for the running back position might shrink a bit. It’s also possible that the target share is more 50/50, such as a 10% target share for Stevenson and an 8% share for Gibson. That slight decrease in target share wouldn’t be enough to outweigh the other positives.
Stevenson had a 1.08-yard per route run average. He also averaged 4.86 yards per target and 6.43 yards per reception. Gibson was much more efficient in the passing game. He had a 1.31-yard per route run average. He also averaged more yards per target at 6.82 than Stevenson did per reception. Gibson’s yard per reception average was 8.10.
Last year, Stevenson averaged 11.3 half-PPR PPG during Weeks 1-12. Out of those 11 games, Stevenson finished as a top 20 running back in seven weeks. He finished inside the top 10 on three occasions. His 11.3 PPG average would have finished as the RB25 on the season last year. In 2022, he finished as the RB13 with a 12.7 half-PPR PPG average.
As you can see from the table under Maye’s section regarding Alex Van Pelt’s history, he has routinely and effectively run the ball. Certainly, Nick Chubb had a lot to do with that, but it’s a good thing for Stevenson. Fantasy manager should be optimistic that Van Pelt can come in and design a solid rushing attack. Stevenson is an excellent bounce-back candidate with the other improvements along the offense. If Maye is better than expected, Stevenson could become a value. His current RB18 is a fair price.
As for Gibson at RB50, he’s a solid handcuff. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Gibson racked up 2,373 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. In his third season, he still finished with 899 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns despite not cracking 200 touches as he did in his first two seasons. Gibson took a big step back in 2023, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be very valuable in the event of a Stevenson injury.
Gibson finished as the RB14 rookie with a 13.5 half-PPR PPG average on just 206 touches. He finished as the RB20 in his second season with a 12.4 half-PPR PPG average. In 2022, he was the RB31 and averaged 9.5 half-PPR PPG. At RB50, Gibson is a good value, and fantasy managers shouldn’t be concerned about drafting him at that price.
Among 48 running backs with at least 25 targets, Gibson finished ninth in yards per target, 11th in yards per reception, 23rd in yards after the catch per reception, and 18th in missed tackles forced per reception. If Gibson is utilized as the Patriots’ third-down and pass-catching back, he could still provide some low-level weekly value as a bye-week fill-in. At RB50, that’s a solid addition, especially considering his contingency value if Stevenson gets hurt.
Verdict: Fair Price on Rhamondre Stevenson, Buy Antonio Gibson
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Demario Douglas: WR70, ADP 168
Ja'Lynn Polk: WR71, ADP 169
Javon Baker: WR92, ADP 231
Kendrick Bourne: WR93, ADP 235
Be prepared to embrace the unknown fully. We have two rookie receivers, a rookie quarterback, and a brand-new offensive coordinator. However, we cannot ignore affordability and potential. Polk is being drafted as the WR71, and Baker is at WR92.
We know nothing about Maye, Polk, or Baker as NFL players, but we know a little about Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots’ new offensive coordinator, as previously discussed. His passing offenses have averaged 554 pass attempts, 3,554 yards, and 23 touchdowns. He had one good year from Baker Mayfield, one bad year from Mayfield, and then a combination of Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and P.J. Walker. He’s never really had good quarterback play, but he’s still been able to generate average offenses.
The main selling point for Baker and Polk is simple: What if they’re good? What if Maye is good? What if Maye is really good? We won’t know the answer to those questions anytime soon, but we should embrace that possibility and that unknown. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick for a reason. Does that guarantee success? It doesn’t, but we’re still discussing a good prospect. He was highly productive in North Carolina, and if the No. 3 overall pick ends up being good or even really good, will anyone be surprised? Absolutely not! At least, they shouldn’t be.
Last season, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Pharaoh Brown, Ty Montgomery II, and Kayshon Boutte combined to have 408 targets, 261 receptions, 2,532 yards, and 16 touchdowns. How many of those players are good? How many are average? How many are below average? How many are bad?
There is just so much opportunity in New England this season. Both rookies will have the chance to become Maye’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Polk would be my preferred target simply due to his NFL Draft capital. He was selected early in the second round, whereas Baker wasn’t picked until the 10th pick of Round 4.
However, both players are free, so why not roll the dice? What if Maye is better than we thought, and Polk is good, too? Or what if Maye is good and Baker is, too? Embrace the unknown. We may not know anything about these two receivers as NFL players yet, but we're not entirely in the dark. Polk's Reception Perception Profile had plenty of positives, precisely this:
"You get a good glimpse of Polk playing many different roles in college. He took 60.6% of his sampled snaps outside but traveled into the slot for a healthy 35.8% and was in the backfield as a pre-snap motion option for 3.6%. He was on the line for 52.9% of his snaps and off the line for 47.1%. Polk has the necessary success rates to project him to those multiple roles. His 68.5% success rate vs. man isn’t eye-popping but it’s in a reasonable range. You can say the same for his 69.2% success rate vs. press. Polk doesn’t have the early burst in his routes to gain easy quick separation, but he has good build-up speed that gets him open against man coverage. Those are the types of scores you want to see if you need him to hack it outside occasionally in the pros. Where Polk really shines is against zone coverage. Hsi 83.5% success rate vs. zone beats out several prospects projected to go higher than him in late April. In fact, among receivers sampled from this class, only his teammate Rome Odunze has a better success rate vs. zone coverage. I love the way Polk diagnoses zones. He works leverages well and knows when to bend routes over a hole in the zone or cross over a defender in the middle of the field. That build-up speed mentioned above sneaks up on defenders and he can rip up downfield coverage unexpectedly."
In his final season at Washington, Polk racked up 108 targets, 69 receptions, 1,159 yards, and nine touchdowns. He ran 41% of his routes from the slot and 59% out wide, displaying good versatility and the ability to win from multiple positions. He finished the year with an average of 2.29 yards per route run and averaged 5.2 yards after contact per reception. Out of 126 receivers with at least 75 targets, Polk finished:
- 29th in targets (108)
- 39th in receptions (69)
- 15th in yards (1,159)
- 21st in touchdowns (9)
- 23rd in yards per reception (16.8)
- 33rd in contested catch percentage (54.2%)
- 32nd in missed tackles forced (15)
- 28th in first downs (45)
You can see Polk and Baker's Reception Perception charting in the tweet below. Both players had highly productive senior seasons and received positive film analysis from Reception Perception. Polk received the better draft capital, but there are plenty of reasons for fantasy managers to buy both players, especially at their depressed prices.
The New England Patriots drafted two WRs I ranked as “priority Day 2” options this year in Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.
Both had some strong indicators in their #ReceptionPerception profiles and should complement each other from a skill-set and deployment perspective. I like… pic.twitter.com/ZW2NaS5gk8
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 27, 2024
As for Baker, Matt Harmon had plenty of good things to say about him, as you can see below. Based on their glowing Reception Perception and quality advanced statistics from their collegiate careers, it seems likely that one of these two receivers will hit. The better bet is on Polk, given his draft capital. The only thing fantasy managers need is to pick the right one, and for Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is to be good. Certainly doesn't seem so far-fetched.
"His success rate vs. man and zone coverage scores are even more impressive when you see he ran a nine route on an absurd 35.6% of his sampled routes. That’s wild. The vast majority of prospects charted this past season were below 20%. Baker was used as a clear downfield threat and still showed out well in terms of separating at all levels. Baker’s 78.3% success vs. press is the most impressive note from his profile. He didn’t see nearly the volume of attempts as some of the top prospects in the class but still, he ranks third behind Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. in success rate vs. press. When that was the assignment, he executed with precision. Baker’s success rates on the vertical routes like the post, nine, corner and out route were excellent. I’m confident in his ability to translate into a viable vertical weapon early in his NFL career. He shows he can stack defenders on the outside and snap off routes at the stem to earn space deep. He also tracks the ball well down the field and works with erratic vertical passers. He saw a contested target on 34.9% of his sampled looks and hauled in nearly 70%. Those weren’t easy chances, either, given how he was deployed."
Baker only had 84 targets in his final season but finished with 1,139 yards. His 21.9-yard-per-reception average led the country among 126 receivers with at least 75 targets. His PFF receiving grade was 84.3, ranking 21st. Baker ran 73% of his routes out wide, and it's a good bet that he will start the season as New England's X receiver. Polk will likely be the flanker, and Douglas in the slot. Baker averaged 7.2 yards after the catch per reception, the 21st best in this sample, and his 3.21-yard-per-route run average was the eighth-highest. Maye's gunslinger attitude could mesh really well with Baker's downfield abilities. Baker recorded a 7.84 RAS (relative athletic score) but has good size at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds. Polk, on the other hand, tested as an exceptional athlete. He posted an 8.78 RAS.
That brings us to Douglas. He finished with a 17.0% target share and a 24.8% target rate. For a rookie, both are impressive numbers. It is, however, fair to call into question the level of target competition he was dealing with. Polk and Baker are certainly an upgrade. His game has some natural limitations, mainly due to how he was utilized. There were 62 receivers last year who had at least 60 targets. Douglas ranked:
- 41st in yards per reception (11.4)
- 47th in yards per target (7.1)
- 51st in average depth of target (8.2)
- 57th in receptions per broken tackle (49.0)
With those numbers, Douglas will need a lot of volume to be fantasy-relevant. Let's take his yards per target at 7.1 and assume it increases to 8.0 with a better quarterback and offensive coordinator. He would still need 113 targets to break 900 yards. He'd need 125 targets to break 1,000. Then comes the scoring issue. Hunter Henry is 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds. Polk and Baker are both 6-foot-1 and over 200 pounds. How many red zone and end zone targets should we expect for Douglas at 5-foot-8 and 192 pounds? Given Douglas' utilization, it's hard to see an outcome where Douglas significantly outplays his positional ADP.
Douglas is, however, a good bet to finish higher than WR70, but fantasy managers should question the ceiling. Given his role, his need for such a large number of targets, and the concerns regarding his size for scoring potential, is that winning if he finishes as the WR45? Certainly, he's outplaying his WR70 ADP, but is WR45 moving the needle in terms of fantasy wins? Douglas is a nice player. He'll help the Patriots' offense, but his upside seems relatively capped for fantasy. Fantasy managers should want to aim higher. Polk and Baker both have more upside.
Bourne is a nice veteran player, but given how much youth is on the offensive side of the football and that New England is smack dab in the middle of a rebuild, it's hard to imagine Bourne getting the playing time he needs to be fantasy-relevant. Polk and Douglas seem like full-time players right off the bat. Bourne and Baker may share playing time early, but in the long term, New England has to be hoping that Baker wins that competition, and they're going to give him every chance to prove he can play. He'll be a rotational player, but given his veteran status and New England wanting to see what they have in their young players, it's hard to imagine he gets the playing time to be effective for fantasy managers.
Verdict: Buy Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, sell Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Hunter Henry: TE19, ADP 164
Jaheim Bell
TE16 is the same as TE24, down where Henry is being taken, so it doesn't make much sense to quarrel about his ranking. Fantasy managers can argue that Tyler Conklin, Noah Fant, Jonnu Smith, and Ben Sinnott should be drafted ahead of him. That's fair, but his price isn't egregious. In 2021, his first with New England, Henry finished as the TE12 with an 8.5 half-PPR PPG average. That almost exclusively came off the fact that he scored nine touchdowns because he only had 603 yards. However, that was the only season New England had competent quarterback play.
Over the past two seasons, Henry has failed to post a target share of 14.0% or higher. His target per route run rate has been equally depressing, never finishing higher than 18.0%. Those are some pretty significant red flags. However, he's also finished in the top 12 in average target depth in his three seasons with New England. In 2021 and 2023, he was in the top 12 in the air yard share. Since joining New England, he has finished with 75, 59, and 62 targets. That tells fantasy managers Henry needs to run hot on touchdowns to become a tight end that (sort of) matters.
Every tight end down here, except maybe Sinnott, needs an injury to one of the starting pass-catchers or to run hot on touchdowns to be fantasy-relevant. Fant has to compete with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Conklin has to contend with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. Jonnu Smith has to compete with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Henry's competition is a 5-foot-8 receiver and two rookies. We've already talked Polk and Baker up quite a bit, and at their cost, there's little not to like, but what if they struggle in year one? Henry could become the quarterback's preferred security blanket and red-zone target.
Because I'm targeting Polk and Baker so heavily, I'd rather (slightly) sell Henry and target one of the tight ends already mentioned. Henry has struggled to earn targets the past few years with far worse pass-catching options around him. He showed in 2021 that he can still be a red zone weapon, but this offense will still be a run-heavy offense. Fantasy managers will be lucky to see this team finish with more than 20 touchdowns, so running hot on touchdowns isn't a good bet here, unlike those other tight ends with more established quarterbacks and pass-heavy offenses.
Let's talk about Bell briefly, and we'll start with his NFL Combine performance since athleticism is crucial for tight end positions. He scored an 8.48 on the RAS and ran a strong 40-yard dash. He displayed lower-body solid power and explosiveness with his vertical and broad jump. Based on the RAS scores of some of the best pass-catching tight ends of the past 20 years, scoring at least an 8.0 is a prerequisite for any potential fantasy football upside. Bell displayed it, passing one of the very most important tests.
Jaheim Bell is a TE prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 8.48 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 171 out of 1116 TE from 1987 to 2024.
Splits projectedhttps://t.co/tlF6KZyipj pic.twitter.com/5VwrkyabhA
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024
Bell is a four-year player, beginning his college career at South Carolina for his first three seasons. In his second season, he finished with 41 targets, 30 receptions, 488 yards, and five touchdowns. He posted an impressive 88.8 PFF receiving grade, the ninth-highest mark among 97 tight ends with at least 25 targets. He was first out of this sample in the country with 11.8 yards after the catch per reception average. Bell was also first in the country, with an average of 3.67 yards per route run. His 30.8% targets per route run mark is equally as impressive.
Jaheim Bell continues to check boxes.
Good in contested situations (54.5% career contested-catch rate).
Excellent after-the-catch (9.2 career YAC/reception, better than Brock Bowers; 10+ broken tackles in 3-consecutive seasons).
2.30 YPRR for his career (excellent) & a… pic.twitter.com/nd9UmSRNyS
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) March 2, 2024
Bell's junior production took a step back. He finished with just 28 targets, 24 receptions, 235 yards, and two touchdowns. Despite the lack of volume, Bell continued to be efficient. He had a 76.4 PFF receiving grade and averaged 8.1 yards after the catch per reception and a 1.62 yards per route run average. He transferred to Florida State for his final season, which ended up being his best. He finished with 52 targets, 39 receptions, 503 yards, and two touchdowns. He had a 12.0% target share and a 20.4% target per route run average. Bell displayed excellent efficiency, showcased solid athletic scores, and was elite in yards after the catch. Among 105 tight ends with 105 targets, he finished:
- 18th with a 75.3 PFF receiving grade
- 10th with 8.1 yards after the catch per reception average
- 13th with a 1.97 yards per route run average
- 26th in contested catch rate at 50%
Fantasy managers don't need to be drafting Bell right now. He's well off the fantasy radar right now, and we'll be able to see signs that he's becoming fantasy-relevant before he does once the season starts. If he does, it will be a long shot. Because of that, there's no reason to make crazy picks like drafting Bell. This is merely a "hey, this is a guy to keep an eye on" kind of thing. The Patriots have an ambiguous group of pass-catchers. Henry is getting older. Maybe they view Bell as the future and want to give him some run later in the year. He's got some exciting traits and potential.
Verdict: Fair Price on Hunter Henry (slight sell). Don't Draft Jaheim Bell, but keep an eye on him throughout the season.
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