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The release of the NCAA Tournament Bracket brings a lot of excitement for sports fans. Who is in? Where and when will they play? But most importantly - who is going to win the whole thing?
This article is a look at the odds to win the National Championship and the Regional Brackets over at Caesars Sportsbook. We are going to look at some of the top contenders, what their odds of winning it all are, and which are worthy of a bet. I have been following college basketball closely for the past 26 years or so, and am excited to give you my thoughts.
If you have any questions or want to follow my picks throughout the entire NCAA tournament, check out my Twitter: @Mark_Kieffer, where I have my tracker posted as a pinned Tweet. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
NCAA Tournament Champion Picks
The Contenders
The NCAA Tournament is known for having upsets, and while sometimes a favorite to win it all goes down early, typically the team that wins it all is a team that was considered good. Nobody is going to say Baylor from last year was a bad team, or Virginia in 2019, Villanova in 2018, North Carolina in 2017, etc.
Based on metrics and the eye test, these are the teams that I think have a realistic chance to cut down the nets, in order by their odds to win the National Championship:
- Gonzaga: +350
- Arizona: +600
- Kentucky: +800
- Kansas: +900
- Baylor: +1200
- Auburn: +1400
- Villanova: +1600
- UCLA: +2000
- Houston: +3000
Now that I've identified the pool of teams that I think the champion will come from, I will share what I think the best picks are for winning the National Championship.
Houston: Houston is my favorite pick here. In my opinion, they were seeded too low. They start four seniors and have a handful of players that played meaningful minutes on last year's Final Four team, despite the significant departures of Quentin Grimes, DeJon Jarreau, and Justin Gorham. They are No. 10 in offensive efficiency and No. 11 in defensive efficiency. They defend the three-point shot well, teams only shoot 29% from three against them (No. 11). The Achilles heel of this team is free-throw shooting (66.9%, No. 322). Three of their five losses were close games (Wisconsin 65-63, Alabama 83-82, SMU 85-83). Against Wisconsin, they shot 53.3% from the free-throw line. Against Alabama, it was 57.9% and against SMU it was 61.1%. It is difficult to win the six games needed for a National Championship without being in a close game or two and the bad free throw shooting plays such a crucial role.
At 30-1, I am willing to make a small bet on them, knowing the likelihood of cashing is low due to the nature of the tournament. I believe they are better than and would be favored against Illinois, the No. 4 seed in their region. Arizona is the No. 1 seed in the region, and while Arizona would definitely be favored in the game, they only shot 73.8% from the free-throw line (No. 103). Additionally, Arizona does start four freshmen and the lack of experience could hurt them in the tournament. If Houston could get past Arizona, anything is possible.
Auburn: Auburn is clearly the best team in their half of the bracket. I do not think LSU, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Colgate, USC, or Miami are anywhere close to Auburn. In fact, I think Auburn might have the easiest path to the Elite 8. If they were to play Kansas, they would be an underdog, but not as large of one as one might think. If Kansas gets upset, they have a great path to the Final Four. Auburn has the No. 24 offensive efficiency and the No. 8 defensive efficiency.
Gonzaga: Gonzaga? At just +350? Yes, that is not a typo. I went back to last year's NCAA tournament odds and calculated what the return would be doing a mechanical Parlay for Gonzaga in 2021. Since they lost the championship game, I had Moneyline odds for every game. The return last year would have been +191 because they were favored in every game, and some games by a lot. I do not think the situation from an odds perspective is that different. On a neutral court, I believe Gonzaga would be favored against anyone (barring injury, etc). I do think in this scenario, getting +350 is pretty good. At some point, they are going to have to win it all...... right?
The Fades
These are teams that might be popular to bet that I would not bet on:
Duke (+1400): This is a very talented team that could make a run to an Elite Eight or Final Four. I am not sure if their defense is good enough to win a championship. Their defensive efficiency is No. 44, which isn't bad, the defense definitely lapses at times. If you watch Duke, there are times they stop playing defense at all. I imagine this will be a popular side to bet on as this is Coach K's final NCAA tournament and people will want to play that narrative and I get it. I personally am a fan of Coach K and I think it would be cool for him to reach a Final Four or win a championship in his last year, but it won't be a team I bet on to win the NCAA championship at the odds they are being given.
Purdue (+1800): Purdue is a great offensive team. They are one of the best outside shooting teams and inside shooting teams in the country (No 4. in 3pt %, No. 12 in 2pt %). Generally, teams do not shoot well six games in a row and what happens with Purdue in the event they won't shoot well? While they are a good rebounding team (No. 13 in offensive rebound percentage, No. 30 in defensive rebound percentage), they are just No. 100 in defensive efficiency. If an opponent can have a better shooting game than them, that is the pathway to victory. In order for them to win it all, they will have to shoot well for six games in a row and if I am betting on that, I want better odds than +1800.
Top Mechanical Parlay Choices
For some of these teams, you can get better odds doing what is called a mechanical parlay. With a mechanical parlay you bet the money line each round on the team you think will win and you reinvest your winnings into the next round.
Here is a quick example from last year's tournament. Baylor was +350 to win it all on Selection Sunday, the second-best odds behind Gonzaga at+250. Instead of betting $100 to win $350 for Baylor to win it all, you decide to bet $100 on Baylor's first game and reinvest the winnings into the next round. Had you done that, you would have been able to turn $100 into $918 by the championship game. Making the championship game was +218 by betting money lines throughout and investing the winnings, and because they were an underdog and won, it resulted in a nice win.
Another nice thing about a mechanical parlay is you can bet on teams and if they run into a matchup you do not like, you can just pocket the profits.
UCLA: UCLA is another team that was under-seeded. They are No. 15 in offensive efficiency and No. 12 in defensive efficiency. They don't turn the ball over (13.5% of the time - No. 5 in the country), and they have experienced players in their starting lineup (three juniors, two seniors). They would be favored against either of Saint Mary's/Wyoming or Indiana but would be an underdog to Baylor in essentially a coin flip as Baylor was probably the weakest No. 1 seed in the field. They got a tough draw, as I believe Kentucky is one of the stronger two seeds and if they were to beat Baylor, they would be an underdog against Kentucky. Once you start betting on someone as an underdog for multiple games in a row, the mechanical parlay is a better deal. Last year UCLA was +3500 to win it all on Selection Sunday and they made it to the Final Four. They were +3981 just to make the Final Four. They were an 11 seed and had to win a play-in game. I do think if they had to beat Baylor and Kentucky, they would beat +2000 when the run was all said and done.
Villanova: Looking at the metrics, Villanova is a team that could do some damage as their offensive efficiency is No. 8 and their defensive efficiency is No. 28. They are also the best free-throw shooting team in the country (82.3%). I believe if they faced Tennessee in the Sweet 16, they would be underdogs in a winnable game. They would also be underdogs against either of Houston or Arizona, along with any of the other one or two seeds they would face. I don't think they win it all (but they could), but I think they could make a nice little run for an opportunity to pocket some profits without betting on an NCAA Champion ticket.
Iowa: Iowa's offensive numbers are great, they are No. 2 in efficiency, No. 3 in turnover rate, and generally solid across offensive categories. Their defense is not great but is above average at No. 77 in the country. Iowa should beat Richmond and Providence/South Dakota St., as strong favorites. Kansas would be a favorite against them but if Iowa can get hot, Kansas could be in for a long game. A hypothetical Iowa-Auburn game would be a coin flip situation. Odds are they lose to Kansas if they make it that far, but I think their pathway as a No. 5 seed into a Final Four is easier than the others.
NCAA Tournament Regional Winner Picks
These are the odds for who will make the Final Four coming out of each bracket.
Midwest Regional
- Kansas: +160
- Auburn: +220
- Iowa: +450
- Wisconsin: +900
- LSU: +1400
- Providence: +2000
- USC: +2000
- Miami (FL):+2200
- San Diego State: +2500
- Iowa State: +3500
- Creighton: +4000
- South Dakota State: +6000
- Colgate: +7500
- Richmond: +7500
I did not list the 15 and 16 seeds, but they have massive odds as you can expect.
This region has the largest chance of there truly being some madness in the brackets. On paper, it should be Kansas, Auburn then everyone else. Wisconsin started the year great, ended poorly, is a weak No. 3 seed and they will get a home game against both Colgate and the winner of LSU-Iowa State with an easy path to the Sweet 16. Providence is a weak No. 4 seed. Iowa and South Dakota State are good enough to beat anybody when they are shooting well. LSU talent-wise is better than a 6 seed, but now without a head coach, they have this narrative as if they have no shot. If Auburn stumbles in the second round to USC or Miami, that bottom half of the bracket could get crazy.
Picks: My top picks for this region are Wisconsin and LSU. Kansas, Auburn, Iowa, are teams that have a realistic chance of winning the region as well, but you should be able to get better odds doing a mechanical parlay than the odds offered by the book above.
East Regional
- Kentucky: +275
- Baylor: +300
- Purdue: +400
- UCLA: +400
- Texas: +1200
- Virginia Tech: +1500
- Saint Mary's: +2000
- North Carolina: +2000
- Murray State: +3000
- Indiana: +3500
- San Francisco: +3500
- Marquette: +4000
- Wyoming: +7500
- Yale: +7500
Did not include the rest, due to the very long odds.
This region has three teams I could see winning the NCAA championship: Kentucky, Baylor, and UCLA. All of those teams are at 4-1 odds or better, reserve them for a mechanical parlay to get a better return, or bet any of those three if you want to set and forget.
Texas is becoming somewhat underrated but I wish they were offered at better odds than they currently are. Virginia Tech just had an incredible run, but that doesn't guarantee they will have the same run in the NCAA tournament. Texas is No. 13 in defensive efficiency and No. 32 in offensive efficiency. They have wins over Tennessee and Kansas and can beat anyone on the right night. They would be in a coin-flip against Purdue but would be a considerable underdog against Kentucky or Baylor and a small underdog to UCLA.
Saint Mary's is a sneaky good team as well. They are No. 9 in defensive efficiency and are a good defensive rebounding team. They have a win over Gonzaga as well.
It seems like every year there is a team that wins a First Four game and then goes on a run. Indiana on paper is the best out of Wyoming, Indiana, Rutgers, Notre Dame. Unfortunately, the +3500 includes them winning that game. I know last year during UCLA's run, doing a mechanical parlay from when they entered the first round to the Final Four was +3981 and they did not include their play-in victory. Again though, if you want to set and
San Francisco is a 10 seed but is pretty dangerous and underrated, being No. 19 in defensive efficiency and No. 45 in offensive efficiency. They are better than Virginia Tech (No. 55 defensive efficiency, No. 18 offensive efficiency). Having to face a tough Murray State, then likely Kentucky is a hard way to go. If they make the Sweet 16, then anything can happen but they will be a big underdog to Kentucky.
Picks: Texas, Saint Mary's, and Indiana are my favorite picks given the odds relative to how strong of teams I think they are. San Francisco makes for an interesting pick as well.
West Regional
- Gonzaga: -140
- Duke: +400
- Texas Tech: +550
- Arkansas: +1200
- UConn: +1500
- Alabama: +2200
- Memphis: +3000
- Michigan State: +3000
- Notre Dame: +4000
- Boise State: +4000
- Rutgers: +5000
- Davidson: +5000
- Vermont: +6000
- New Mexico State: +7500
Other than Gonzaga, Duke, and Texas Tech, I could see any of the teams after losing in the first round or they could make a little run. It's wide open for who the 3rd or 4th best team in this region is. This region is another one in which we could see some madness, especially the bottom half of the bracket. Texas Tech is a strong three seed but Duke is a weak two seed. Vermont (five senior starters, No. 20 eFG%) and Davidson (No. 11 offensive efficiency, No. 8 3 point %) have the makings of a bracket-busting type of mid-major that could surprise us all.... or they could lose in the first round. Boise State has the No. 17 defense and I do not think they are any worse than the teams above them.
Picks: Texas Tech, Boise State, Davidson, Vermont. I think this is a region in which you fade completely because you think Gonzaga runs away with it, or you sprinkle small bets on the four listed in hopes one pulls off a special run.
South Regional
- Arizona: +160
- Villanova: +350
- Tennessee: +400
- Houston: +600
- Illinois: +800
- Michigan: +2000
- Ohio State: +2500
- Loyola: +2500
- TCU: +3000
- Seton Hall: +3000
- Colorado State: +4000
- UAB: +5000
- Chattanooga: +6000
Like the other regions, I didn't list beyond this... know they are long odds
This region was seeded more efficiently relative to the odds. The top three seeds have the best chances while Illinois and Houston are flip-flopped between seeds. Houston, I listed as a tournament contender in another article, and they are +600. Loyola (No. 42 offensive efficiency, No. 22 defensive efficiency) is a 10-seed but I think they are better than Michigan and Ohio State, so there is some value there. Colorado State (No. 20 offensive efficiency, No. 83 defensive efficiency, No. 11 FT%) is better than Michigan and Ohio State in my opinion too.
Picks: Houston, Loyola, Colorado State. While I believe the most likely winner of the region will be Arizona, Villanova, or Tennessee, there is value with Houston, Loyola, and Colorado State. I would either place a decent-sized bet on Houston, or sprinkle small bets on Loyola and Colorado State, or fade with the odds given as the pricing is pretty efficient for Arizona, Villanova, and Tennessee
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy the NCAA Tournament!
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