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While Kansas vs. Villanova was not much of a game, North Carolina vs. Duke was one of the ages. There are 18 lead changes and 12 ties and Duke tried to avenge their end of the season home loss to North Carolina and give Coach K one more win over North Carolina. Unfortunately, North Carolina had different plans, pulled away with the game in the final minute, and continue their dream run to face Kansas in the championship game on Monday, April 4th at 9:20 pm Eastern.
This article highlights my top college basketball betting picks for the Championship Game (Monday, April 4th at 9:20 pm Eastern). You can follow all of my picks, on my Twitter @Mark_Kieffer. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time and reference the odds at Caesars Sportsbook. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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#8 North Carolina vs. #1 Kansas
As the game sits as of the time of this writing, Kansas is favored by four points, is a -190 Money Line favorite, and the point total is set to 152. Kansas is No. 6 in offensive efficiency, No. 17 in defensive efficiency and plays a tempo of 69.3 possessions a game which is higher than the 67.1 average in the NCAA. They shoot 36.1% from three (No. 52), they allow just 30.1% from three (No. 25) and they shoot 72% from the free-throw line which is close to average in the NCAA.
North Carolina is No. 18 in offensive efficiency, No. 39 in defensive efficiency and plays at a tempo of 70.2 possessions a game. They shoot 36.2% from three (No. 50) and allow 33.7% shooting from three (No. 182). They shoot 76.3% from the free-throw line (No. 32).
Kansas is led by Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack while North Carolina is led by Caleb Love and Armando Bacot. The top two for both sides are pretty even. Agbaji is better than Love but Bacot is better than McCormack. The difference in this game will come to the three-point shooting in my opinion. Teams shoot just 30.1% from three against Kansas, however, North Carolina has Love that shoots 36.8%, RJ Davis that shoots 37.7%, and Brady Manek that shoots 40.1%. On the flip side, Agbaji shoots 38.9% from three and Christian Braun shoots 41.1% while North Carolina opponents shoot 33.7% from three. As simple as it sounds, if Kansas shoots better than North Carolina from three (which they should), they win the game. If Kansas has an off-shooting night, the interior of North Carolina will likely be too much for them.
Making predictions for a single game like this is tough; both teams are playing their best basketball of the year, and they both have won five NCAA tournament games in a row. Kansas is the better all-around team and I give them the slight edge, but four points feel like one too many.
Some bets that I like are:
North Carolina +4.0 (-110): I think this game will be closer. The only way I see it going past 4.0 points is if North Carolina has an especially off three-point shooting night, or if Kansas shoots free throws at the end better than their season averages. Models are predicting between 3.5 and 4.0 points, but they are incorporating the entire season from North Carolina and North Carolina has been a different team over the past month or so.
First Half Under 71.0 points: Both teams do like to play with pace, however, I could see Kansas slowing it down a bit. The pressure is on Kansas to win and really both teams could come out a little tentative in the first 10 minutes or so as they feel each other out in a huge game.
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy the last game of the college basketball season! Good luck RotoBallers!
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