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NCAA March Madness: Predicting the Leading Scorers of the First Round

Dalton Knecht - CBB DFS Picks, NCAA Daily College Fantasy Basketball

There's nothing quite like the Madness of March. It's where dreams are crushed or become reality, heroes falter or heed the call, and legacies are solidified.

Every year, there are a couple of players that captivate the country with their scintillating play and ridiculous shot-making ability. Within the past 20 years, we've had players like Stephen Curry, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Trey Burke, Carsen Edwards, Markquis Nowell, and Donte DiVincenzo capture the hearts of America as they lead their teams on deep tournament runs.

While the first round of the tournament is now less than 48 hours from tipping off, we wanted to take a look at the most likely players to help kick-start the madness and put up those gaudy stat lines. Here are the top candidates to lead the first round of the NCAA Tournament in scoring.

 

Zach Edey, Purdue

2023-24 stats: 24.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists on 61.9% FG, and 71.6% FT

Edey is the leading scorer in the country and will be the first repeat Wooden Award winner since Ralph Sampson in 1982-83. He should be at the top of every March Madness best player list, regardless of what happened last season.

 

Dalton Knecht, Tennessee

2023-24 stats: 21.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists on 46.5% FG, and 39.7% 3PT

You can't mention the top players in college basketball without including Knecht in the conversation. If it wasn't for Edey, Knecht would likely have won National Player of the Year. As a transfer from Northern Colorado. How does one move from the Big Sky to the SEC and increase their scoring and efficiency? He's is as close to unguardable as someone can be in college basketball.

 

Caleb Love, Arizona

2023-24 stats: 18.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists on 42.1% FG, and 34.7% 3PT

Love has never been known for his efficiency, but he had a career year in terms of points, rebounds, and field-goal percentage. The former Carolina shooting guard is capable of heating up in a hurry and should cook against Long Beach State, who boasts a No. 210 ranked defense and is No. 262 at defending the three.

 

RJ Davis, North Carolina

2023-24 stats: 21.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists on 43.1% FG, and 40.6% 3PT

Davis deservedly won ACC Player of the Year, and was recently named a first-team All-American after putting together one of the best seasons in UNC history. After only averaging 54 three-point makes with a 34.6% conversion rate per over his first three seasons, Davis exploded for 106 makes and 40.6% in 2023-24, highlighted by a 42-point performance vs. Miami in late February. He's a microwave scorer that is also a phenomenal floor general and should have plenty of opportunities to pour it on Wagner/Howard in the first round.

 

Mark Sears, Alabama

2023-24 stats: 21.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists on 50.4% FG, and 43.1% 3PT

Sears is the best offensive player on the second-ranked offense in the country. He's the only guard on any of the three All-American teams that shot above 50% from the floor, a remarkable feat given how much Alabama likes to run and gun. Sears scored 20+ in two-thirds of his games this year and could easily go for 30 or more vs. Charleston.

 

Reyne Smith, Charleston

2023-24 stats: 12.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists on 41.2% FG, and 39.5% 3PT

While Smith only averaged just shy of 13 points per game, he was tied for seventh nationwide in three-point field goals with 109 makes on the year. This kid can light it up from beyond the arc and will need to score against an Alabama team that is No. 1 in the country in points per game (90.8).

 

Shahada Wells, McNeese State

2023-24 stats: 17.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.0 steals on 47.5% FG, and 40.2% 3PT

Wells is a complete player, one that pairs extremely well with resurgent coach Will Wade. EvanMiya ranks him as the 34th-best player in the country, according to the Bayesian Performance Rating. He'll have to win the matchup with veteran point guard Ryan Nembhard on Gonzaga for the Cowboys to have a shot, which the TCU transfer is more than capable of doing.

 

Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M

2023-24 stats: 18.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.9 steals on 36.9% FG, and 31.5% 3PT

Taylor is the type of player that a coach simultaneously loves and hates. He is maybe the streakiest shooter in all of college basketball, capable of putting up 30+ on any given night, but can also shoot his team right out of a game. It's these type of guys that can make the tournament must-see TV.

 

Keisei Tominaga, Nebraska

2023-24 stats: 14.9 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists on 46.8% FG, and 37.2% 3PT

Dubbed the Japanese Steph Curry (super creative!), Tominaga flew under the radar until the end of last season and has lit up the Big 12 conference for much of 2023-24. The senior is capable of pulling up from anywhere on the court, which could make him a fan favorite in the tournament if the Huskers are able to pull off an upset or two.

Side note: How fun is it that there are two different head-to-head matchups on this list? Make sure to tune into No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston and No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Texas A&M. Potential for major fireworks there.

 

DaRon Holmes II, Dayton

2023-24 stats: 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists on 54.5% FG, and 38.5% 3PT

One of the best players in the A-10 for three consecutive years, Holmes has really expanded his game each season and is now a legitimate threat from downtown. The Arizona native might be the toughest matchup in the country given his size and versatility and should have his way with Nevada's smaller front line.

 

Terrance Shannon Jr., Illinois

2023-24 stats: 23.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists on 47.0% FG, and 36.2% 3PT

Shannon went from a serviceable offensive piece on Texas Tech to a legitimate All-American level scorer in two seasons with the Illini. Aside from Knecht, he is the best perimeter scorer in college basketball with his blend of size, strength, and ability to hit tough contested shots. The Chicago native has also scored 102 points over his last three games, which included a 40-piece against Nebraska in the Big Ten semis.

 

Tucker DeVries, Drake

2023-24 stats: 21.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists on 44.8% FG, and 36.4% 3PT

Perhaps the most feared mid-major scorer in the country, DeVries led the Bulldogs in points, assists, and steals this season, coming second in rebounds. With a 6-foot-7, 210-pound frame, he can either shoot over smaller defenders or beat larger ones off the dribble. Washington State will be in trouble if he gets going.

 

Honorable Mentions

Jalen Blackmon, Stetson 

Blackmon averaged over 21.5 points per game and was top 10 in the NCAA for three-point makes, but is unfortunately playing the top overall seed in UConn. Just on pure shot volume alone, there is a chance that Blackmon is the highest scorer of the first round, but it's unlikely.

Boo Buie, Northwestern

Another player overshadowed by Edey, Buie was one of the best point guards in the country this season after putting up 19.9 points and 5.1 assists while shooting 44% from three. FAU is routinely exposed on defense, so look for Buie to put up big numbers in Round 1.

Baylor Scheierman, Creighton

Easily one of the best pure scorers in the country, this lefty has a sweet stroke from beyond the arc (99 makes on 37%) but can score from anywhere on the court. Scheierman was just announced as a third-team All-American and is the top player for a scary Creighton squad that should blow out Akron.

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