NCAA Basketball Preview: Big Ten

Wild new conference realignment. Teams have to TRAVEL … wonder when they’ll invent a faster way to do that. Adding Oregon, UCLA, Washington, and USC brings the total to 18 teams in the Big Ten, tied for the largest in the nation. Normally, I would write these types of articles in reverse order to grab views, but anyone passionate about bottom-of-the-barrel Big Ten rosters is even wilder than I am. Futures bets are at the bottom, however (wink wink).

Since there are so many teams, I won’t write much about the bottom few tiers. If you’re looking for more, keep an eye out for weekly write-ups and bets.

Following a six-bid 2024 NCAA Tournament, the Big Ten will look to secure double-digit bids in March this season. In all, I’m looking to fade this conference throughout the year, however. Several rosters and coaches are overrated, giving us some opportunities to find value through March.

Big Ten Basketball Preseason Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook to win the Big Ten Regular-Season Title)

Starting with some FIRE here, I have to applaud myself for being able to see through the noise of social media. The internet can be a plague, dragging you deeper and deeper into a wormhole of college basketball nothingness unless you, like myself, truly have the willpower to parse through said noise and get straight to facts.

And the fact of the matter is that after years of letdowns, Buckeye fans finally have something positive going into the season.

Jake Dieblers is COOKING with his first transfer class
- Aaron Bradshaw 5 ⭐️ 7’1 C from Kentucky
- Micah Parrish 59 ncaat points 90+ career starts
- Meechie Johnson 14 PPG on ncaat South Carolina
- Sean Stewart 5 ⭐️ F/C from Duke
1 more spot 😈
The Buckeyes are coming pic.twitter.com/EgxhH8dRuB

— Brodie (@BrodieKnowsBall) May 3, 2024

I’m generally “anti-hire the interim coach,” but new head coach Jake Diebler did an undeniable job stepping into a total mess midseason last year. Finishing as one of the nation’s hottest teams, the Buckeyes return only point guard Bruce Thornton.

Luckily for them, Thornton is arguably the best guard in the conference and should push for Player of the Year honors. Pair him with Gamecock transfer Meechie Johnson Jr., and there’s a clear path for this Ohio State team to have the best backcourt in the Big Ten.

Micah Parrish from San Diego State is another transfer filling a massive void on the wing with a decent stroke and excellent defense. Former top recruit and Kentucky transfer Aaron Bradshaw rounds out the starting five.

Sure, the Buckeyes lack depth, but if Diebler can get another level of performance from Bradshaw, they’ll have one of the most versatile starting fives in the country.

A high-upside team, but there are also a lot of questions yet to be answered. I took OSU 16-1 to win the Big Ten regular season (would still play at 10-1), as I believe it to be one of the conference’s top teams with the most upside.

2. Purdue (+500 DraftKings)

As previously mentioned, the Big Ten gets messy quickly. Far and away the weakest Power 5 conference this season, there isn't a single team head and shoulders above the rest competing with Alabama and Kansas come March.

For Purdue, Braden Smith is back leading the charge of what is now one of the most experienced backcourts in all of college basketball. Running mates Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn also return with a pair of freshmen to round out a floor-spacing starting lineup.

As a whole, the Boilermakers will be sound and tough. However, I believe head coach Matt Painter’s reluctance to use the transfer portal will result in a lack of overall roster talent, especially against high-end competition. Their veteran guards will win plenty of games, but overall, I see a flawed roster and expect them to be overvalued early in the season.

3. Indiana (+650 DraftKings)

Mike Woodson is just one of those old-school high school football coaches who still runs the triple option and gets the most out of his team, which consistently lacks top-end talent. He runs one play: get a big man.

This year’s iteration comes in the form of Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo, who is truly dominant in the paint. An excellent shot-blocker and finisher, however, his flaws have stood out against opponents who are able to space the floor on him.

Hoosier lifer Trey Galloway, joined by transfers Luke Goode and Kanaan Carlyle, make this backcourt a good pairing to space the floor with the new big man.

If Mackenzie Mgbako can take the next step and become an all-conference player, the Hoosiers should compete for a Big Ten title and a single-digit seed in March. Overall, I don’t hate this roster; it is, however, lacking top-end guard talent when it matters most.

This angle of Oumar Ballo’s slam 🎥🔥#B1GMBBall x @IndianaMBB pic.twitter.com/POZvok5R1A

— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) November 7, 2024

4. UCLA (+600 DraftKings)

There’s a pandemic ravaging several programs at the moment, and it starts with the head coach. Mick Cronin is an excellent Xs and Os coach but has struggled thus far in the transfer portal era.

His Bruins finished last season with a losing record due to a clear deficiency in talent. Cronin finally went into the portal, snagging William Kyle III, Eric Dailey Jr., and Tyler Bilodeau to replace this frontcourt.

These pieces, along with a few returning guards, should prove to be a much-improved team compared to a year ago, but I still don’t see how this team finishes the season in the top 25. It is greatly lacking three-point shooters, or floor spacers in general.

In today’s changing landscape, Cronin has been closer to a museum piece than a national title contender, and I believe their odds should be closer to 100-1 to be national champs. With that being said, the Bruins should still finish in the upper echelon of this conference.

5. Illinois (+1000 DraftKings)

Someone, ANYONE reading this article, please do me this one favor: If at any point this year Illinois wins a high-profile game, please knock down my door and remind me to fade it the following game.

This roster is bad and is coached by yet another dinosaur in the sport. That fraud Brad Underwood was carried to the Elite Eight by NBA player Terrence Shannon Jr. and otherwise has come up short year in and year out.

The Illini lost four starters and did not replace even a fraction of the talent. Their best player is likely either Evansville transfer Ben Humrichous or Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell, neither of whom should be leading a Power 5 (4?) team.

I think they’re one of the most overrated teams to start this season, and hopefully, I can find a way to monetize that. To repeat once again, however, a No. 5 spot preseason shows the true depth of this conference. 

6. Michigan State (+600 DraftKings)

How many times do I have to say this? You either get with the times, or you get left behind. Tom Izzo is one of the best college basketball coaches of all time -- there’s no doubt -- but the refusal to improve via the transfer portal is mind-boggling.

I mean, who even is Michigan State’s starting lineup? Four guys who barely played on a mediocre team last season? The funny thing about this situation is that the Spartans' best player is their only real transfer, Frankie Fidler.

Although Fidler gives off a poor man’s Dalton Knecht vibes, we saw how far even he could carry a much better roster last year. Another team with a stone-age coach I’m looking to fade when possible.

7. Michigan (+1200 Caesars)

The biggest coaching upgrade in the country certainly goes to Michigan, bringing in Dusty May, who led Florida Atlantic’s magical last two seasons.

This year’s team has a limited ceiling but an entirely retooled roster thanks to the portal (hallelujah). Roddy Gayle Jr. and Rubin Jones are solid guards with size, but the real portal prize is Danny Wolf. Wolf is a 7-foot stretch center who led Yale’s tournament team last season.

Along with these three, coach May brought in child Vladislav Goldin, a fellow 7-footer, to dominate the paint day in and day out. Much like the rest of this conference, the Wolverines start the year searching for some secondary players to take the next step to reach their ceiling and compete for a conference title.

I do think a top-5 finish in May’s first season is a more reasonable goal, as this is a team I have my eye on to start the year.

Danny Wolf in his debut for the Wolverines:

19 points
13 rebounds
3 steals
3 blocks
83.9 TS%
+30

In only 23 minutes… pic.twitter.com/MgwFN9PB7F

— ZNBA (@ZNBAJournalist) November 5, 2024

8. Oregon (+1500 DraftKings)

Point guard Jackson Shelstad is going to be a total stud. Aside from Shelstad, the Ducks are searching for points, and I don’t know where they’ll consistently come from.

Dana Altman’s amoeba zone is incredibly dangerous in a one-game tournament, but not as effective throughout conference play with familiarity and film. Transfers TJ Bamba and Brandon Angel will attempt to fill this void, but I’m having trouble finding enough talent to compete with the top of the conference.

9. Rutgers (+1400 BetMGM)

We’re officially into the wild-card portion of the conference. Starting with the vets, Jeremiah Williams, Tyson Acuff, and Zach Martini round out a decent floor. They’re all solid spacers and ball-handlers, so the team has numerous avenues to generate offense.

These three provide a nice floor, but Rutgers’ real ceiling comes in the form of freshman phenoms Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. It may take some time to get acclimated, but assuming this duo is as advertised, there’s no telling how good the Scarlet Knights could be.

If Ace Bailey is Cooper Flagg's Malik Nabers, the upside here is untapped. I’m almost always going to have reservations about young players early in the year, and I do expect speed bumps, which is why I have them ranked near the upper-middle of the Big Ten.

Ace Bailey drops 25 in the first Rutgers exhibition pic.twitter.com/sDw6LLJaDX

— Teg🚨 (@IQfor3) October 18, 2024

10. USC (+4000 DraftKings)

On the completely other end of the spectrum from most of the Big Ten, head coach Eric Musselman virtually only built his roster via the transfer portal.

The Trojans are officially our ground zero team to study if an all-mid-major roster can compete in a power conference. Not having any superstars will certainly be their late-season demise, but could also be the reason for their season-long success.

As you comb through their new roster, the same player archetype keeps popping up: under-athletic but heady offensively with three-point shooting capabilities. Muss has to have 5-6 of this exact player in his rotation this year and could be a weeknight nightmare to guard in conference play.

“Frisky” is the word I would use to describe the 2024-25 Trojans. I’d be shocked if they finish atop this conference but should be right around the middle of the pack. You also have to give coach Musselman the benefit of the doubt with his recent success. 

11. Maryland (+20000 Everywhere)

With lofty expectations over the past two seasons, Kevin Willard’s Terrapins have fallen way short. With only Julian Reese returning from their "Big Three," coach Willard got a pair of solid transfers in Ja’Kobi Gillespie from Belmont and Selton Miguel from South Florida, who should form a formidable trio.

What’s left behind these three, however, is quite a bit of unproven talent. Based on recent history, I wouldn’t be confident in this coaching staff discovering the best way to utilize its talent. Not a long shot I’m interested in.

12. Wisconsin (+4000 Caesars)

Things are starting to get ugly in the Big Ten. The Badgers do return Steven Crowl, John Blackwell, and Max Klesmit from an NCAA Tournament team, but that does not mean this is a talented roster. Adding two scoring transfers certainly helps with offensive firepower. Ultimately, I expect Greg Gard’s Badgers to struggle defensively against tournament-level competition.

13. Iowa (+3000 DraftKings)

Fran McCaffrey is doing much of the same -- running it back with a subpar roster. GO TO THE TRANSFER PORTAL IF YOUR ROSTER IS LACKING! It is ridiculous. Payton Sandfort cannot be your best player if you want to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid.

Don’t get me wrong; I like his game, but he cannot be your go-to ball-handler in pressure situations night in and night out. You need a veteran or talented ball-handler with at least two other players who can create anything offensively. Maybe Morehead State transfer Drew Thelwell can be one of those pieces. Regardless, the Hawkeyes enter the season with more questions than answers.

14. Nebraska (+10000 BetMGM)

Despite a first-round exit, the Cornhuskers were so much fun last year. They pulled off a few high-end upsets with tons of exciting games and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade. I wish I could have anything close to the same confidence entering this year.

Veterans Juwan Gary and Brice Williams bring experience to the locker room, but much like the above Hawkeyes, there’s just no high-end talent. No big-time recruits or sought-after transfers -- just bland mediocrity. At least one of these Big Ten teams is going to lose as a 20+ point favorite to start the year; I just can’t figure out which one.

15. Northwestern (+8000 Caesars)

Potentially not as bad as the bottom few teams in the league. I suppose that’s a compliment. Well, they also have size. With two 7-footers and a 6-foot-10 forward, the Wildcats shouldn’t be outsized in the trenches.

Relying on MAAC transfer Jalen Leach and Ty Berry off a knee injury means offense needs to be generated somewhere. Without former All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie, I suspect head coach Chris Collins is still searching for where this offense will come from.

16. Washington (+10000 DraftKings)

Welcome to the Big Ten, Washington, and welcome to Washington, coach Danny Sprinkle. Bringing with him comes his go-to threat, Great Osobor, who should be pushing for an All-Conference selection.

Much like the lower half of the conference, there’s very little Power 5 experience otherwise. It will be interesting to see how coach Sprinkle retools his roster after the season, but for now, I have no clue what to expect other than a bottom-half finish in the conference.

17. Penn State (+10000 Caesars)

Much like Washington, Penn State and head coach Mike Rhoades are in Year 2 of their mid-major to Big Ten jump. Unfortunately for coach Rhoades, he hasn’t utilized the positive program momentum.

The roster looks eerily similar to last year, where right-hand man Ace Baldwin Jr. led the Nittany Lions to a 16-17 finish. I think coach Rhoades would be quite all right with that same placement this season.

18. Minnesota (+20000 DraftKings)

Returning forward Dawson Garcia certainly is a bright spot. Pair him with Charlotte transfer Lu’Cye Patterson, and you have a decent 1-2 punch.

Rinse and repeat for the rest of this conference, but where does any other production come from? Do the Gophers have the length and athleticism to defend at a high level? Can they make threes? It’s a hodgepodge of questions with only a few answers.

My Bets

Ohio State 16-1 to win the Big Ten Regular Season risk 1u

Alabama 12-1 to win the National Championship risk 2u

YTD 5-1 (+2.66u)

Follow all game-by-game bets @Roddy_PhD on X or myaction.app/DrRoddy

More March Madness Analysis