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"Thunder" Dan Palyo breaks down the first round of the NBA playoffs with his sports betting picks and advice for the postseason.
With the Wizards' victory last night over the Pacers, the Eastern Conference playoff picture is finally complete! Tomorrow, the first round of the NBA playoffs kicks off and I'm here to break down some of these matchups for you and give you some of my favorite betting picks in the process using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
It was a shortened schedule this year as teams only played 72 games instead of 82, but it was still a grueling year for the players with all of the COVID restrictions and scheduling issues. It was equally grueling for those of us who covered the NBA for fantasy purposes and NBA DFS was almost unplayable for the last month of the year with how many injuries and players were resting on a nightly basis.
But the playoffs should return some normalcy to things as most teams will tighten up their rotations and with the exception of the Celtics (who are missing Jaylen Brown for the rest of the postseason), most of these teams enter the playoffs with all their key contributors. I am going to break down each series and highlight a few bets that I like before finally giving my final prediction. Without any further ado, let's get into the analysis!
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#1 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #Washington Wizards
Season Series: Philadelphia 3-0
Series Odds: Philadelphia (-1250), Washington (+730)
Eastern Conference Champs Odds: Philadelphia (+300), Washington (+8000)
NBA Champs Odds: Philadelphia (+700), Washington (+25000)
The Sixers are the top seed this year, on the strength of 49 regular-season wins and edged out Brooklyn by just a game to gain home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. They swept the Wizards during the regular season. Two of those games were pretty close while the other was a blowout. However you slice it, the Wizards will have their work cut out for them as the Sixers are superior team is even facet of the game. They were 39-12 with Joel Embiid in the lineup and Washington has no answer for his presence in the paint.
I know there are some Westbrook and Beal stans out there who will point out that this superstar duo has carried a rather poor surrounding cast beyond expectations this season, but the reality is that Washington is not a good team and will be outclassed by Philly, who at +5.5 had the fifth-best net rating of any team in the NBA this year. Maybe Washington can steal a game in this series, but I doubt it. I look for the fully healthy Sixers to dominate the series and sweep this Washington squad in short order.
Betting Picks: Under 4.5 games in the series (+235)
Series Prediction: Philadelphia 4-0
#2 Brooklyn Nets vs. #7 Boston Celtics
Season Series: Brooklyn 3-0
Series Odds: Brooklyn (-1430), Boston (+700)
Eastern Conference Champs Odds: Brooklyn (+110), Boston (+4000)
NBA Champs Odds: Brooklyn (+250), Boston (+10000)
Vegas isn't giving the Celtics much of a chance here, and who can blame them, right? Boston had to fight their way into the playoffs with a win over Washington in the play-in game earlier this week and has struggled all season with injuries. They lost Jaylen Brown for the post-season and the addition of Evan Fournier just isn't enough to make up for it. Jayson Tatum can only carry this team so far by himself and the Celtics simply don't have the firepower to keep up with the Brooklyn big-3. I do think they steal a game somewhere as the Nets are always good for at least one letdown game.
The Nets are the favorite to win the conference and the championship, but I am still a bit skeptical as to if they can go all the way. They certainly have the most talent of any team in the NBA with their trio of stars, but these guys haven't played all that many games together with each of them missing big chunks of the season and we still don't know how good their defense is going to be. I'm not all that interested in betting on them as long term as the favorites as I think both Philadelphia and Milwaukee will be tough matchups for them.
Betting Picks: Series Correct Score: Brooklyn 4-1 (+175)
Series Prediction: Brooklyn 4-1
#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #7 Miami Heat
Season Series: Milwaukee 2-1
Series Odds: Milwaukee (-305), Miami (+240)
Eastern Conference Champs Odds: Milwaukee (+325), Miami (+1200)
NBA Champs Odds: Milwaukee (+800), Miami (+3000)
The Bucks get a chance to exact some revenge on Miami nice and early as the Heat were the team that ousted Milwaukee in the Conference Finals last year before eventually getting handled by the Lakers. I think the Bucks are much better positioned for a deeper run this year with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis. Meanwhile, the Heat had a fairly disappointing season compared to their preseason expectations and really struggled offensively for much of the season.
I am not one to doubt Jimmy Butler and we've seen him carry this team before, but the Bucks are simply a better team and have one of the best players in the league in Giannis. Miami will fight like crazy and play their guts out, but I simply don't see them offering enough resistance here after watching them languish through the regular season. Milwaukee is more talented at every position with the exception of center, where I give Bam the obvious edge over Brook Lopez.
I like the Bucks to get it done in five games and I think they pose a serious threat to Brooklyn in the conference. I definitely some futures shares of Milwaukee in case they really gel here in the postseason and make a run to the finals.
Betting Picks: Series Correct Score: Milwaukee 4-1 (+275), Milwaukee EC Winner (+325)
Series Prediction: Milwaukee 4-1
#4 New York Knicks vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
Season Series: New York 3-0
Series Odds: New York (+100), Atlanta (-121)
Eastern Conference Champs Odds: New York (+4000), Atlanta (+4000)
NBA Champs Odds: New York (+10000), Atlanta (+10000)
This projects to be by far the closest series in the East. These two teams finished with identical records and could easily be flopped in the seeding, but the Knicks got the four seed due to their 3-0 season sweep of the series against the Hawks. The Knicks are good, who would have believed it! I will admit that I was skeptical at the beginning of the year, but Coach Thibs has really gotten the best out of this team and they were one of the best surprises of the season this year.
We expected improvement from the Hawks as they brought in several veterans to help out Trae Young and John Collins, but I was a little disappointed with how they played this season if I am being honest. These teams play two contrasting styles with the Knicks being having a top-5 defense and playing a slow, half-court game and the Hawks playing much faster and being the superior offensive team. I am going to go with the defense here and the fact that New York has proven they can match up well with this team this season. I still think we see the series go 6-7 games, but I like the Knicks to win. I don't think either team stands much of a chance against the top three in the conference though.
Betting Picks: NY Knicks -1.5 games (+180) or Series Correct Score: New York 4-2 (+500)
Series Prediction: New York 4-2
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