I can't believe we're finally back, RotoBallers. It was a long, MLB-heavy summer, and I think we're all ready for the excitement that comes with the start of the NBA season. These articles focus on the best plays, typically more suited for cash games. However, I've been playing NBA DFS for over ten years now, and as a guy who never plays cash games, most of my picks will be players who I feel have a high potential ceiling suited for tournament formats.
Tonight, we have a seven-game DraftKings slate and a nine-game FanDuel slate. DraftKings is doing the weird thing by breaking out the late-start games on the West Coast into its own slate. The DAL-PHX and SAC-LAL matchups are only available on the FanDuel main slate, which is a shame because they're two of the top games on the slate from an implied total and game environment perspective.
The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan and zero in on the best players and spots before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock!
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Today's NBA DFS Core Picks
Here is a look at some of the higher-priced players we can use as building blocks for cash and GPP contests.
This is going to be a tough slate to break down. Victor Wembanyama is popping at the top of the salary board, but he's coming off a subpar season debut with 30.25 DK points over 28 minutes. He figures to see a full workload in a more competitive game tonight, and he should be able to do whatever he wants against Alperen Sengun and the Rockets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum are in smash spots against the Bulls and Pistons, respectively, while LaMelo Ball has a tough matchup but is hard to fade when he's averaging 58.4 DK PPG through two contests.
Paolo Banchero and Anthony Edwards are the final two core pieces in the expensive range. While I slightly lean toward Edwards in the softer defensive matchup, both can be used as "second pieces" to the four players mentioned above.
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. HOU - C ($10,700 DK; $11,200 FD)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC @ CHI – PG ($9,800 DK; $11,400 FD)
- Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. TOR - SG ($8,700 DK; $9,200 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Picks
This is where we talk about saving salary. Whether it's a severely underpriced backup or even as simple as a guy playing like someone who should be priced higher, this is where you'll find guys who make lineups work.
Here are today's projections sorted by fantasy points per dollar, excluding players priced $6,000 or higher.
A lot of value is popping in the optimizer for tonight's slate, ranging from underpriced starters to role players in great spots to produce. Wendell Carter Jr. ranks at the top for me, as we've seen him average 29 minutes and 32.4 DK PPG this season. Tre Mann, Alex Caruso, Jalen Suggs, and a mix of Spurs all feel underpriced for their roles and expected production, while I'll also be working in Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid into lineups due to their upside in a great matchup against Toronto.
Top Value Plays:
- Wendell Carter Jr., ORL @ MEM – C ($5,000 DK; $6,000 FD) DraftKings Only
- Tre Mann, CHA vs. MIA - SG ($4,200 DK) DraftKings Only
- Alex Caruso, OKC @ CHI - ($4,800 FD; $5,000 DK) FanDuel Preferred
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Today's NBA DFS Picks: Point Guard
SGA and Ball highlight a relatively uninspiring group of PGs tonight. We have a solid mix of uncomfortable value options, but Gilgeous-Alexander is facing the Bulls, and Ball put up 67 DK points in the one game in which he played a full allotment of minutes this season.
We have to take a leap of faith with Jalen Suggs. He is averaging just 20.4 DK PPG over his first two games and only played 13 minutes in a blowout win against the Heat. He should be playing closer to 30 minutes on a typical night, and he looks great at his price against a Memphis team that is allowing the fourth-most FPPG to opposing PGs so far this season.
Top PG Options:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC @ CHI ($9,800 DK; $11,400 FD)
- LaMelo Ball, CHA vs. MIA ($9,600 DK; $9,900 FD)
- Jalen Suggs, ORL @ MEM ($4,800 DK; $5,700 FD) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Shooting Guard
Anthony Edwards, Zach LaVine, and Tyler Herro are the high-priority targets in the expensive range, but we can also prioritize a few value options in this position. Tre Mann is in a slugfest matchup against the Heat, but he's too cheap for a player with games of 35.5 and 28.25 DK points to this point. He's taking a lot of shots, and he could see a decent amount of Tyler Herro matched up against him defensively.
Top SG Options:
- Anthony Edwards, MIN at TOR ($8,700 DK; $9,200 FD)
- Tre Mann, CHA vs. MIA ($4,200 DK; $5,400 FD) DraftKings Only
- Alex Caruso, OKC @ CHI ($5,000 DK; $4,800 FD) FanDuel Preferred
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Small Forward
The OKC-CHI and SAS-HOU games will be featured heavily at my SF position tonight. Jalen Williams and Zach LaVine are my favorite targets in the mid-range, while Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie, and Aaron Wiggins are all appealing value options. I'll mix in some Jayson Tatum in case he pops for another ceiling game, but those will be my main targets.
Top SF Options:
- Jalen Williams, OKC @ CHI ($7,100 DK; $7,400 FD)
- Zach LaVine, CHI vs. OKC ($7,100 DK; $7,300 FD)
- Julian Champagnie, SAS vs. HOU ($4,000 DK; $5,000 FD) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Power Forward
Jalen Williams, Barnes, and Tatum also qualify at PF, so we'll focus on other plays here. Jeremy Sochan gets a juicy matchup against the Rockets, and he looks great as a mid-range value. Chet Holmgren will square off against Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic after putting up 62.5 DK points in the opener. Paolo Banchero projects well against the Grizzlies, but we would have to sacrifice players like Edwards or LaVine to fit him into lineups. Lastly, I'm willing to throw another dart at Sarr, but I will keep his exposure to a minimum until he shows he belongs.
Top PF Options:
- Chet Holmgren, OKC @ CHI ($7,700 DK; $8,400 FD)
- Jeremy Sochan, SAS vs. HOU ($5,100 DK; $5,700 FD)
- Alex Sarr, WAS vs. CLE ($4,800) FanDuel Only
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Center
We can play Holmgren at PF, so it's all about Wemby and Carter Jr. here. Wemby is my favorite play on the slate, as he has immense upside in a plus matchup against the Rockets. They're allowing the ninth-most FPPG to Cs in this young season. They're also permitting the fifth-most blocks per game to the position, which is critical for Wemby to hit a ceiling game.
Carter Jr. has already been covered, but it's worth restating that he's underpriced, given his current role and expected production. The new-look Grizzlies frontcourt features an imposing presence in Zach Edey, but he's already at risk of fouling out on any given night and clearly hasn't proven himself on the biggest stage.
Top C Options:
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. HOU ($10,700 DK; $11,200 FD)
- Wendell Carter Jr., ORL @ MEM ($5,000 DK; $6,000 FD)
- Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. TOR ($7,000 DK; $7,000 FD)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Mavericks @ Suns (231.5 O/U) FanDuel Only
- Thunder @ Bulls (232.5 O/U)
- Kings @ Lakers (229.5 O/U) FanDuel Only
- Rockets @ Spurs (222 O/U) High projected pace, soft defenses
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
On FanDuel specifically, I won't be getting too much of Luka Doncic, SGA, Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis, or LeBron James. This is mostly a product of wanting to prioritize Wemby, but the prices on Doncic, SGA, and Tatum all feel too rich for my blood.
I'm getting to more of SGA, Tatum, and Ball on DraftKings as there is more value present, but I'll still be fading high-priced guys in Ja Morant and Scottie Barnes.
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Victor Wembanyama
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Wendell Carter Jr.
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Anthony Edwards
- My favorite value play: Tre Mann
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