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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 20th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Tuesday was very underwhelming with just two games total, but both remained, somewhat-close and Wednesday rebounds with ten confirmed games, three starting at 6PM EST. With the amount of injuries and absences surrounding the league, the lineups are including more unknown names. If a team is short-handed, the best player on that team assumes a playmakers role and is going to see more usage, not necessarily more points.
There are going to be lineup changes throughout the season, but knowing the starters before each game will give the best indication of where the superstars/players-being-bet-on are going to distribute their production. With 20 teams playing tonight, only the Warriors are playing Wednesday and Thursday.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. You can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions.
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DAL @ IND
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 29.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 22.5 Points
Luka Doncic had a career-game followed by a mediocre outing, both resulting in Dallas Maverick losses. This is going to be a more frequent occurrence with the Mavericks lack of assets, but that just means more usage for Doncic. Last time he played Indiana he scored 36 points on 26 shots, and after only taking 11 shots last game in total, there is no way that number decreases and this should be the second time this season we are able to benefit from a frustrated Doncic taking it out on the Pacers wing defenders.
For Domantas Sabonis, the rest of the Pacers have been playing well and that has been pulling from Sabonis' overall point scoring. His assists and rebounds are either staying consistent or increasing, but it is slightly more difficult for him to have high-scoring games with Indiana just not needing to force production from their frontcourt. With Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup, it will take from Sabonis' rebounding, but it can also give the Pacers an advantage in the paint if they decide to target Porzingis.
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BOS @ PHI
Jaylen Brown (BOS) MORE 24.5 Points - Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 24.5 Points
Until the Celtics are back to full strength, Jaylen Brown is set to clear any over bet that isn't 30 points. Even in a blowout loss to a quality defense, Brown was able to post 25 points and his ability to score with ease from anywhere on the court looks more consistent every game. Jayson Tatum's absence is clearly helping Brown and there is no reason to fade him, even with Kemba Walker back.
Joel Embiid is listed as probable for right now, and his past performances against the Celtics have been all over the place. Defense usually doesn't affect him, and this defense especially won't affect him. The only thing slowing down and stopping Embiid from scoring 25 points is himself.
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MIA @ TOR
Bam Adebayo (MIA) LESS 22.5 Points - Pascal Siakam (TOR) LESS 20.5
The Heat have needed games like this from Bam Adebayo all season and although Chris Boucher has been proving his worth on the defensive end, he doesn't physically compare to Adebayo in the paint. Last game was his best game of the season and the usage won't likely repeat, but this Raptors frontcourt has never faced Adebayo without someone named Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka. The odds of this being the game Miami decides they don't want to force the paint is unlikely seeing how Toronto's frontcourt has softened up since last season.
If the Raptors success was dependent on Pascal Siakam not scoring 20 points, he'd still try to score 20 points. The way Siakam plays is so forceful and nearly automatic that the consistency is what hurts him. He never changes his style of play and against teams that aren't used to that, he can be a pain. The Heat defense is ready for the spin-move that Siakam is going to throw at them, so my guess is that his sub-20-point scoring slump continues.
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DET @ ATL
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 24.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) MORE 24.5
The previous four games Jerami Grant has taken 19 shots, and the most drastic improvement to his game has been his ability to put his head and draw more contact on his drives. The Hawks have been playing well-rounded basketball, but Detroit still has Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose to space the floor and attract most of the attention. Grant has the length to make it tough for anyone to stop unless the designate a specific player to sacrifice their body in the paint on a regular basis.
Trae Young is facing the Pistons defense, but clearly the defense he plays hasn't had much affect on his shooting. It's been inconsistent and Young seems to be playing into that, basing his shot attempts on how many go in early-on. Young needs to really get out of a poor shooting slump before he is good for 25-points-a-night again.
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ORL @ MIN
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 24.5 Points - D'Angelo Russell (MIN) MORE 23.5
The Magic are on a six-game skid and their best chance to end this losing streak is against the Timberwolves. Nikola Vucevic has not struggled outside of when the game is just out of hand, and their entire offense rotates around Orlando's point guard utilizing the pick-and-roll and finding Vucevic in his spots. Every single game the Magic have played in this season has featured Vucevic is some positive way. He is way too valuable to this team and based on how Orlando feeds him, this should be another 30-point game even if it's not terrible close.
In a similar situation D'Angelo Russell has been doing everything he can to keep Minnesota competitive. Without Karl-Anthony Towns, it's going to be tougher than usual, but that usually means good things for betting the over on point-totals. This game has upside written all over it with the lack of superstars.
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