RADIO
There are four games in the NBA tonight, including some mismatches that could provide opportunities to win on Monkey Knife Fight.
In two of the games tonight, there are some injuries that could affect usage patterns. Start in Indiana, where the Pacers host the Trail Blazers as Portland is missing point guard Damian Lillard. The Philadelphia 76ers are going to be without center Joel Embiid when they host the New York Knicks. Those injuries, though, create opportunities for other players to take on bigger roles on their respective teams.
Here are some angles to keep in mind when making Thursday’s basketball prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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NEW YORK-PHILADELPHIA
MORE OR LESS
Tobias Harris LESS THAN 22.5 POINTS – At home, Harris is averaging 19.2 points per game this season but does get the benefit of facing a subpar Knicks team and the Sixers will be without star center Joel Embiid, so that probably means a few more looks for Harris. Is that enough to like him for 23 or more points? He has only scored 23 or more points in seven of 29 home games so it’s a bit of a reach to get there.
Julius Randle MORE THAN 19.5 POINTS – Randle is averaging 19.7 points per game on the road and gets a shot at the Sixers without Embiid. That may mean more Al Horford but that’s still a preferable matchup for Randle who has scored 20 or more points in 12 of 29 road contests.
RAPID FIRE
Al Horford +3.5 assists vs. Elfrid Payton – Payton, the Knicks’ point guard, is averaging 6.3 assists per game on the road, which is fine but doesn’t warrant heavy favorite status against Horford, who moves the ball well for a big man, averaging 4.0 assists per game at home. With the prospect of more minutes in Embiid’s absence that’s all the more reason to prefer Horford’s side of this matchup.
SACRAMENTO-OKLAHOMA CITY
MORE OR LESS
Danilo Gallinari LESS THAN 20.5 POINTS – The Thunder forward is averaging 19.3 points per home game and goes up against a Sacramento team that runs about league average defensively. Gallinari has scored 21 or more points in 12 of 28 home games,
De’Aaron Fox LESS THAN 19.5 POINTS – Fox can be a game-breaker for the Kings but he’s averaging 18.7 points per game on the road and the Thunder are better than average defensively. Fox has scored 20 or more in nine of 20 road games so this tilts towards the under.
RAPID FIRE
Steven Adams -2.5 rebounds vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – As great as SGA has been, and he’s a wonderful rebounder for a guard, he’s averaging 6.0 rebounds per home game. Adams is grabbing 9.7 rebounds per home game, enough of an edge to move this in the big man’s direction.
PORTLAND-INDIANA
MORE OR LESS
C.J. McCollum MORE THAN 26.5 POINTS – In three games with Damian Lillard out of the lineup, McCollum has taken the scoring load for the Blazers, putting up 96 points. The Pacers aren’t an easy opponent but McCollum can get enough looks that he can finish with 27 or more for a fourth straight contest.
Domantas Sabonis LESS THAN 19.5 POINTS – Portland has a below-average defensive record and Sabonis is putting up 18.1 points per game at home this season. Can he get 20 or more? Of course. Is it likely? That’s less certain.
RAPID FIRE
Myles Turner +6.5 rebounds vs. Hassan Whiteside – There is a stark difference in the rebounding numbers for these two bigs. Turner is not on the glass as much, and is averaging 6.5 rebounds per home game, while Whiteside can have some truly monstrous rebounding efforts but he’s averaging 12.5 rebounds per road contest. Close enough to like Turner getting an extra 6.5 boards.
L.A. LAKERS-GOLDEN STATE
MORE OR LESS
Anthony Davis LESS THAN 29.5 POINTS – The Lakers will surely have their way with the Warriors but expecting 30 or more points from Davis is a significant ask. He’s averaging 25.7 points per road game and has scored 30 or more points in eight of 24 road games.
Andrew Wiggins LESS THAN 20.5 POINTS – There may be a fresh start for Wiggins in California but he has scored more than 20 points twice in five home games with the Warriors. Not much reason to suspect that a game against the Lakers will be what he needs to bust out.
RAPID FIRE
Marquese Chriss +0.5 rebounds vs. Dwight Howard – Chriss has taken on a bigger role for the Warriors and is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game in the past 10 (compared to 5.5 per home game this season). Howard is grabbing 8.1 rebounds per road game but has played fewer than 20 minutes in three straight games, managing a total of 16 rebounds. If Dwight doesn’t take on a much bigger role the advantage goes to Chriss.
