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Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Thursday March 30th, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Thursday, March 30.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Note: PrizePicks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Brandon Ingram OVER 19.5 1h PRA
I'll kick off today's slate with Brandon Ingram's 1h PRA prop. Ingram has been crushing it lately, going over this projection in all five of his last five games, averaging 27.2 1h PRA during that stretch.
Ingram has also been getting a lot of playing time, seeing at least 18 first-half minutes in his last 15 games straight, sometimes even hitting the 20-minute mark by halftime, so the volume and opportunity are definitely there. Tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans will be taking on the Denver Nuggets, a matchup that should stay close and very competitive.
I expect Aaron Gordon to be on Brandon Ingram, and Ingram is not scared of that matchup at all, having already dropped 38 points on him once this season. I expect Ingram to dominate tonight, especially in the first half, and cover this prop with ease.
Trey Murphy III OVER 2.5 3-PT
Next, let's go right back to that Pelicans-Nuggets matchup and look at Trey Murphy's 3-pt prop. Murphy has been shooting well lately, exceeding this protection in four of his last five games, hitting 10 threes in one of those games and averaging 4.4 threes during that span. Murphy hasn't been shy of letting it fly, attempting 6-plus threes in his last 10 games and has averaged nine three-point attempts during that span.
The books like Murphy to go over this projection with -130 odds, and my prop model also supports this play, projecting Murphy for 3.05 made threes. With his hot hand, I expect Murphy to keep shooting the ball and hit at least three 3-pointers for us tonight.\
Brook Lopez UNDER 1.5 3-PT
Lastly, I'll be taking a look at Brook Lopez's 3-pt prop. Lopez has been struggling from deep lately, going under this mark in five of his last five games, averaging .8 made threes during that span. He has only attempted an average of 2.6 threes in his last five games and has only made 3 of 13 during that span.
The Milwaukee Bucks face the Boston Celtics tonight, and Lopez is yet to go over this mark against the Celtics this season. The books have Lopez going under 1.5 threes at -135 odds, supporting this play pretty nicely. Lopez will likely continue this cold streak, especially against a tough Boston defense, so let's cash in on the under for this prop tonight!
Other Recommendations:
- Jayson Tatum OVER 21.5 1h PRA
- Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 27.5 PRA
- Jrue Holiday OVER 7 assists
- Marcus Smart OVER 5 assists
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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