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Justin Carter presents his NBA DFS prop picks on PrizePicks for Tuesday May 25th. Use his NBA prop picks recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of projecting the point, assist, rebound, or three-point totals for some of the league's top players. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat players and explain why players will/will not reach their projections.
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Single Stat NBA Totals
Jayson Tatum under 30.5 points: In Game 1, Tatum shot just 30 percent from the floor and still scored 22 points, so him getting 30-plus points is definitely not outside the range of possibility here. But I'm just thinking through this one less from a "can he score 30 points in this matchup" perspective and more in a "what's the likelihood he scores that many in a particular game" perspective. Tatum scored 30 or more 20 times in the regular season, but he played in 64 games, which means he hit that mark 31.25 percent of the time. And while he averaged 31.2 points per game over the final nine regular-season games, even then he only scored 30 or more in four of those games, with three coming in a row. I know Tatum can explode at any moment, but the safe pick here is to take the under.
James Harden over 22.5 points: On the other hand, someone I think will go over his point total is James Harden. In 36 games for Brooklyn, Harden averaged 24.6 points per game, which is a pretty big drop from what he was doing in Houston the last few years, when he had three seasons in a row averaging over 30 per game. Harden only had 21 points in the playoff opener, but has averaged over 22.5 points per game in the postseason for eight consecutive seasons. Yes, things are different playing with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, but Harden also shot just 38.5 percent in Game 1 and 25 percent from three. That lack of efficiency isn't in line with what The Beard usually provides.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 assists: Getting two assists in a game shouldn't be that hard, right? Well, KCP averaged 1.9 of them in the regular season, so it's going to be close. But, some of his best assist games came at the end of the year, and in May Caldwell-Pope averaged 3.4 of them per game. LeBron missing time helped that, though. When sharing the floor with LeBron, KCP's assist rate is 7.4 percent. With LeBron off the floor, it's 10.5 percent. There's a drop there, but I'm almost always going to be the over when the number is this small, especially with KCP getting a couple of assists last game. Good chance this doesn't hit, but it would take almost nothing for two assists to happen, which is why I'm taking the shot.
James Harden over 2.0 3-PT made: Easy one for me. Harden made two threes in Game 1, but attempted eight of them. In the regular season, he shot 36.6 percent from deep, making 2.7 per game for the Nets. And since the playoffs see teams rely even more on their best players, I'd expect Harden to continue seeing a lot of opportunities to fire away from beyond the arc. If he takes eight of them again, his regular-season numbers suggest he should make 2.9 of them. Obviously that's not a real amount he could hit, but still...I'm going to trust a player like Harden, who in 12 playoff games last year made at least three treys in eight of them. Again, situations change, but think you've got to trust Harden to make some threes.
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