NBA DFS Prop Picks for 2/25/22 - Monkey Knife Fight

Basketball was gone for too long and yesterday’s games featured all inter-conference matchups in some quality, semi-competitive basketball. Nearly every game was close for the first half, but the healthier, better equipped team won in nearly every case and three conference powerhouses, the Warriors, Suns, and Celtics, all dominated when it mattered, late in their matchups.

Friday night showcases nine games with plenty of high-scoring potential, but the key games to watch will be Raptors @ Hornets, Mavericks @ Jazz, and Clippers @ Lakers. All these teams are in playoff contention and can’t afford to lose games to in-conference opponents. While regular season basketball has its inconsistencies, these are the types of games that these teams have had circled for some time.

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SAS @ WAS

Dejounte Murray (SAS) MORE 21.5 Points – Kyle Kuzma (WAS) MORE 19.5 Points

Betting on both team’s top scorer here is an easy route to take, and the more you think about it, the more confident you should feel. Neither of these defenses have been that great, and the Wizards playing without Bradley Beal has allowed Kuzma to post some pretty diverse stat lines. One game after scoring 26 points on 27 attempts, Kuzma posted five points on seven attempts across 30 minutes. 20 points isn’t a necessarily a guarantee like it once was for Kuzma, but playing next to Raul Neto should force Kuzma back into a shooter’s role.

Dejounte Murray is a different story. Even if Murray does have a bad game, which has been rare this season, he can cover it all up through defense, and truthfully, when you play good defense, bad shooting nights are ultimately excused and still. Yet, he’s averaging 24 points over his last four games. With the Spurs as bad as they are, no one is looking at Murray as a weak point, and the fact he has been scoring near 20 points as consistently as he has been is a testament to just how good he really is. So far, a bad night for Murray is 18 points, seven assists, multiple rebounds and at least one steal, so it’s easy to see why his floor is fairly high against the Wizards.

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TOR @ CHA

Pascal Siakam (TOR) MORE 22.5 Points – Miles Bridges (CHA) MORE 19.5 Points

Don’t be fooled by box scores, Pascal Siakam is the heart of this team on both sides of the ball. Fred VanVleet has had a few solid spurts of production this season, but when you watch the Raptors, Siakam is the one with the ball late in the game and his assist totals have been significantly more reliable than VanVleet’s lately. Siakam has been seeing a ton of usage and he’s doing more than just score when he has the ball. However, getting to the rim is still his priority aspect of his playmaking ability. The Hornets struggle against Siakam’s brand of relentless offense, so he should be able to create enough spacing for VanVleet to be productive as well.

Plenty of Hornets have upside against this Raptors team, so don’t be surprised if this name gets changed around a few more times before the game starts. Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier should all get plenty of spacing tonight and the only thing holding them back will be themselves. When it comes to defense, neither of these teams have really shown the ability to stop players when they get rolling, and since this will be the third meeting between Toronto and Charlotte, it’s hard to see why the defense would randomly improve without drastic adjustments.

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DAL @ UTA

Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 31.5 Points – Donovan Mitchell (UTA) MORE 24.5 Points

Before we even get to breaking down Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell’s point total is 24.5 and that seems insane given…literally everything. The Mavericks are lacking a big man to control the paint and keep players out, so worst case scenario still favors Mitchell producing around the rim, where he’s much more consistent than his outside shot despite hitting at least two three-pointers in all six games since his return from injury.

The Jazz defense is good, but Doncic is better. Rudy Gobert will be able to play the enforcer role on every possession that Doncic isn’t the primary facilitator for, and that’s really it. Utah’s defense isn’t as impregnable as it once was and Doncic doesn't cower when the pressure is put on him. If anything, he tends to thrive when he’s forced to do more and carry the offense against tougher teams.

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LAC @ LAL

LeBron James (LAL) MORE 28.5 Points – Reggie Jackson (LAC) MORE 18.5 Points

These carnival game, DFS-prop betting sites have an unhealthy relationship with inconsistent players, but no relationship rivals that between the house and Reggie Jackson. Reggie Jackson is their guy. Their knight in shining armor. The amount of times he has screwed bettors in any wager is unimaginable to think about and at this point, betting the over is asking too much, but bet the under and you’re somehow watching him score his 15^th point with 4 minutes left in the 2^nd quarter.

For LeBron James, it’s never really a toss-up, but more about how the rest of the team will play. The longer the game stays competitive, the more points James scores. He runs the team and nearly every aspect of the offense, but players like Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac can be annoying to deal with in the paint. Both play physically and are used to absorbing contact, making it easier for James to pass out or dump off rather than taking off-balance or contested shots. This is still LeBron James we are talking about, so he’s bound to get to the basket and hit a three, but there is reason to see why he’s not a sure-thing for 30 points tonight.

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