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With eight games available to choose from, there was no shortage of upside and match ups we can absolutely capitalize on. It reached the point where some of these bets felt so safe, that they started to counteract. You ever see a team that, according to numbers, let up a ton of shots but when you play shooter's against them, they struggle? Well that is rampant tonight.
For example, Kritaps Porzingis and Devonte' Graham are playing teams that on paper, don't have the tools necessary to stop them. The Celtics lack a seven-footer that can compete with the length of Porzingis, and the Cavaliers defense struggles to stop an efficient pick and roll, a staple of Graham's playstyle. Since they both have upside, they both should clear the over. But here's what really happens.
Since the Celtics lack the seven-footer, Daniel Theis spends all game boxing out while other Celtics and Mavericks clean up the rebounds. Then the Cavaliers decide to use Tristan Thompson specifically to stop the pick and roll, forcing Graham to pull-up and forcing the other Hornets players to facilitate. I won't waver on my initially grounded stance that both these players will cover their props, but this being basketball has me thinking about the variance and that's usually not good for betting.
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Pascal Siakam (TOR) OVER 23.5 Points
Since the stats are a little inflated right now, its the perfect time to shove them all in your face. With Pascal Siakam is averaging close to 30 points over the last week and playing against a Pistons team that might not have Andre Drummond, I probably don't have to say another word and you are already finding ways to bet on either Siakam specifically, or the Raptors in general. Either way, there is no way I would bet against Siakam with this much in his favor. The odds are working for him and with his projected below his season average, this is one of those super-safe bets that get's ruined by Siakam going 1-13 from the field.
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Kevin Love (CLE) OVER 9.5 Rebounds
This game has great exposure for players everywhere. Kevin Love is playing against the Hornets frontcourt, which is alwass a good sign for opposing bigs. Not to mention that Love had a bad last outing against the Raptors. Not that he needs to improve on that or anything, but he will want to make up for that performance by dominating the Hornets frontcourt like nearly every other team has. This game has a ton of upside from the scoring prowess of each time combined with their lack of defense, so look for multiple players to be having impressive box score numbers when it's all said and done.
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Devonte' Graham (CHA) OVER 7.5 Assists
Since Devonte' Graham is at the forefront of the Hornets offense, playing against the Cavaliers makes this pick much easier to make. Not only should he have another high-scoring night, but the assists should follow directly behind as usual. His consistency over the start of the season has been borderline flawless, and while he will have games where he is going to struggle shooting and just have an off night, playing against the Cleveland defense is going to help make it easier on the Charlotte offense as a whole, therefore creating upside for Graham to see a few more assists that usual.
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Nikola Vucevic & Jonathan Isaac (ORL) OVER Nikola Jokic (DEN) & Aaron Gordon
This one might be confusing and get an email sent to me about not doing this again, but the Rapidfire option for the Nuggets/Magic game in Denver actually seems pretty enticing. Not only should Vucevic score more than Jokic, who has taken a slight downturn in scoring this season, but Jonathan Isaac is a very capable rebounder when he doesn't have All-NBA talent guarding him.
With Vucevic, he has come back strong and he's hit the ground running which is perfect for this matchup. The Nuggets are going to struggle to contain him when he is in rhythm, and lately Isaac has posted more double-digit rebounding performances in recent games than he has earlier in the season, when he showing more breakout statistics. Despite Gordon's rebounding, I trust Isaac to barely edge him out whereas Vucevic should handily cover the "over," over Jokic.
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Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) OVER 10.5 Rebounds
I just took the opportunity to freely rant about this pick in the NBA Chat Room, so excuse me if this is too brief. Kristaps Porzingis should be good for double-digit rebounds every night, but for some reason he just isn't able to control the paint like he wants to. Over the past week or two, and now that Luka Doncic is going to miss some time, he has stepped up his effort in that specific department. He should own the boards against the Celtics, but sometimes matchups like there are too good to be true.
While there is upside, I have an eerie feeling Porzingis is going to get stuck at nine rebounds for some reason or another. To be completely honest, it has hit the point where Porzingis should actually get closer to 15 rebounds, but there's something about playing a seven-footer that inspires others to steal rebounds. I feel confident betting on Porzingis rebounding well tonight, but basketball is going to basketball and anything can happen.
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