NBA DFS Prop Picks for 12/16/22 - Monkey Knife Fight

Friday brings a ton of potential with plenty of high-scoring matchups and a late-slate consisting of three Western Conference rivalries. With 10 games on the schedule and just the Oklahoma City-Minnesota game not listed on Monkey Knife Fight, it’s better we avoid that game for the most part anyway.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still a safe bet until it’s clear his upside is in jeopardy, but the Timberwolves are a train wreck when it comes assuming this type of production. Anthony Edwards will likely be paired with Gilgeous-Alexander and since his six-game streak of scoring 20+ points or more from late-November to early-December, Edwards hasn’t been consistent outside of that.

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POR @ DAL

Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 32.5 Points – Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 28.5 Points

The point total for this game is 225.5 with plenty of room to move up based on how well both teams have been playing. Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard are averaging well over 30-points through the last couple games, leaving no reason to consider the under with either player.

Why Lillard’s projection hasn’t shot above 30-points is beyond me, don't waver when it’s been the easiest cash of the night whenever Portland plays. The last time these two teams played fireworks erupted and a bunch of players went off for near-season highs at the time and both Doncic and Lillard have seemingly improved since.

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ATL @ CHA

Trae Young (ATL) MORE 28.5 Points – Kelly Oubre (CHA) LESS 19.5 Points

Since Gordon Hayward should be returning to action tonight, it only makes sense that his replacement will see the biggest drop. Oubre played well filling in for Hayward, linking nine-straight games scoring 20-points or more, but with LaMelo Ball and Hayward back in the rotation Oubre needs to consistency off the bench. It’s unfortunate that the streak will likely come to an end tonight.

Until Dejounte Murray returns, Trae Young has the green light and more. That was still pretty much the case when Murray was playing, only Murray shouldered some of the weight on his own and Young’s overall workload was much lighter, something that surprisingly takes some getting used to after years of being the guy. Currently, he’s at the exact opposite end of the spectrum where he’ll shoot first and ask questions later, so he can save those low-volume, high-efficiency nights for when Murray is available and healthy. Young should end somewhere near 30-attempts tonight if this game stays close.

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SAC @ DET

De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 23.5 Points – Bojan Bogdanovic (DET) MORE 21.5 Points

After suffering his worst multi-game-stint of the season, De’Aaron Fox took Kevin Huerter’s absence personally, taking every shot that Huerter would have liked for himself. Fox finished with 27-points, far ahead of his projected totals and setting himself up to turn past negatives into future positives with another big game against the Pistons backcourt. While he’s always lined up to post massive nights, his output relies more on how well he’s playing right then and there rather than the matchup. If he has a good or bad game it’s usually nothing that the defense did.

As of right now, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey are the only two Pistons players that are consistently part of the offense. Everyone else plays their role although if it’s their night, they will absolutely get more than enough shots that game. The Pistons play off the hot-hand and rely on Ivey and Bogdanovic as bucket getters when they need it. Saying Bogdanovic will hit the over on any given night is the kiss of death but at least he’s taking the attempts worthy of it.

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DEN @ LAL

Anthony Davis (LAL) MORE 28.5 Points – Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points

Few players out-produce a healthy Anthony Davis but Nikola Jokic is one of the ones that can at least compete. Jokic isn’t putting up the same numbers, but in terms of winning and overall skill, the Davis versus Jokic matchup is one of the best to watch throughout the regular season. Davis should be able to keep his momentum going against Jokic’s defense, but it isn’t going to be an easy night unless his turnaround is hitting. The over should be safe for both players as long as they don’t go off and do something stupid like foul each other.

Another instance where the projected totals don’t add up. Jokic is putting up at least 30-points in four of his last five games with his last game being a 43-point, 20-attempt game against the Wizards. The Lakers defense is more reliant on individual skill than actual team defense so Jokic should have no problems finding his groove against Davis and there's a good chance he can do most of his work from within the paint.

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