NBA DFS Prop Picks for 1/4/23 - Monkey Knife Fight

Only eight of Wednesday’s twelves games are listed, but tonight’s four highest-projected point-totals are up so we have plenty to work with. The NBA has been in a great spot the for the last week and each night is an improvement with almost too much going on.

Luka Doncic put up 60 points and nobody saw Donovan Mitchell following it up with a 70-point game of his own just a few days later. Steven Adams, all of a sudden, is good for 20-rebounds a night and De’Aaron Fox is slowly developing his clutch gene game-after-game. Add in the Brooklyn Nets recent surge and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s current MVP streak and you realize that your intro paragraph had no hope once you saw it was a 12-game slate.

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MEM @ CHA

Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 27.5 Points – LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 24.5 Points

Two energetic superstars lining up against each other is the type of matchup we want to target. Morant scored 32+ points in a back-to-back and is has taken over 20-shots in four of his last five games. His off-game against the Raptors is an anomaly since Toronto game plans and prepares for regular season more than other teams.

LaMelo Ball is looking to make it twelve straight games scoring over 20-points with no signs of regression. Ball is going to be forced into these massive games since the Kelly Oubre injury cuts off a surprisingly effective branch of the Hornets offense. Ball will continue to make up for that lack of offense and the Grizzlies don’t fare well against lanky playmakers.

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BKN @ CHI

Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 29.5 Points – DeMar DeRozan (CHI) LESS 27.5 Points

One this is certain. If your team let’s up something like 70-points to a single player, your defense is bad. Whether you don’t have the proper facilities, weren’t prepared, or just had a bad night, it doesn’t entirely matter. Superstars like Kevin Durant are going to be ready to pile on and turn what could have been a one-time thing into a theme.

There is no real reason to take the over for DeMar DeRozan here. The Bulls have been bad and DeRozan isn’t showing much scoring consistency. If the Nets continue on their current trajectory, they should win this game and Durant should continue to be the leading scorer each night. DeRozan might have success, but his game doesn’t change from night to night outside of how many points he scores. Not to mention he’s only hit 28-points or more five out of his last nine games.

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POR @ MIN

Anthony Edwards (MIN) MORE 28.5 Points –Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 28.5 Points

The Anthony Edwards over is safe as long as he keeps taking this amount of shots. If the offense continues to run through him like it is, there’s no reason to assume he’s going to have an off game. He’s doing his work from the inside-out and he’s hit at least two three-pointers in last six games so the attempts and potential are absolutely there.

Every other game, Damian Lillard is scoring under 20-points and that’s not reassuring. We know his upside is uncapped, but inconsistency is inconsistency. Playing against Minnesota is one of those games where either he dismantles the defense single-handedly, putting up 30+ points, or he plays just well enough for the Trail Blazers supporting cast to carry the weight and he has another sub-20-point game. Regardless, the defense isn’t doing anything to hold Lillard back.

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ATL @ SAC

Trae Young (ATL) MORE 28.5 Points – De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 26.5 Points

The point-total for this game is a ridiculous 245 and both of these players are more than deserving of the over. Trae Young has been playing well despite the Hawks struggles and taking the over for both assists and points here doesn’t matter. When Young has a big-game, no point or assist total is safe.

Until someone else takes the reigns from De’Aaron Fox, he’s going to have massive upside in games like this. Unless Dejounte Murray decides to take this game off to strictly defend, the Kings should be in for another high-scoring game behind De’Aaron Fox’s dynamic scoring.

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