NBA DFS Prop Picks for 1/20/23 - Monkey Knife Fight

Most of tonight’s nine games are expected to be relatively competitive. The only spread greater than 10-points is Nuggets-Pacers and that’s not a surprise to anyone. Indiana is on a five-game losing streak with their last loss to the Thunder being the worst of the bunch, not to mention Nikola Jokic is looking to make it nine-straight wins for his Nuggets.

Denver might run away with the one-seed and that would mean another MVP for Jokic, but the real story this season revolves around the Thunder. Oklahoma City might not have the respect of the common fan because of their young roster and general inexperience, but for a team that was expected to embark on their tanking journey earlier than most teams, they are  fighting for playoff positioning, ahead of teams like the Trail Blazers, Lakers, and Suns. They play the three-seed Sacramento Kings tonight.

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NOP @ ORL

C.J. McCollum (NOP) MORE 25.5 Points – Paolo Banchero (ORL) MORE 21.5 Points

Until Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson return, C.J. McCollum is going to be on pace for at least 20-points every game. ‘And’ is the key word because both players will have to be healthy and playing a full workload for it to minimize McCollum’s impact. Of course, McCollum could use the break, but he’s too good to actually let off the pedal until someone can shoulder some of the weight. Until then, McCollum overs look solid, especially against Orlando’s ‘matador’ defense.

Even with the Pelicans basically sending out a rotation of 3-and-D guys, Paolo Banchero’s floor and ceiling remain promising. Despite his last couple games not surpassing the threshold we need, he’s aggressively attacking every game and the Pelicans paint defense can be exposed, especially if Jonas Valanciunas gets in foul trouble.

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LAC @ SAS

Keldon Johnson (LAC) MORE 23.5 Points – Marcus Morris (LAC) MORE 12.5 Points

Keldon Johnson’s most recent game against the Nets is an outlier because of how many points he scored, but it was his second consecutive game taking at least 25-attempts. What’s even more astounding is the fact that neither of these games featured his highest shot-attempt game this season. If he can stay on a roll, in this role, not only will the Spurs appreciate it, but so will Keldon Johnson over bettors.

When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are playing, Marcus Morris becomes a major part of the secondary offense and spacing, but doesn’t take a ton of shots. When both are out, Norman Powell leads the charge and Morris is forced into a heavier role, seeing way more attempts. Until we get clarity that George and Leonard are playing, Morris should be hitting closer to 15-points with consistency.

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IND @ DEN

Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points – Buddy Hield (IND) MORE 17.5 Points

Myles Turner or no Myles Turner, Nikola Jokic is not a great matchup for the Pacers. He’s going to be able to get to the rim and the Pacers offense without Tyrese Haliburton is reliant on point-scorers and hoping the entire team can find a rhythm without any team-first playmakers. So far, the no-Haliburton project is failing and Buddy Hield has already scored in the single-digits twice in his last three games. There’s clearly not much faith being put into Hield if he’s not hitting his shot early.

Jokic is an entirely different matter. He will score, but unless the Pacers make this a close game, the second half might render meaningless. Naturally, you take the over for Jokic here and take the under for Hield based on matchups and skill, but the game of basketball always likes to mess with bettors. If I think Jokic will hit the over and Hield will hit the under, expect Jokic to post a 15-15-15 game with Hield dropping 30-points.

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MEM @ LAL

LeBron James (LAL) MORE 33.5 Points – Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 28.5 Points

Since one of the greatest basketball players of all-time has scored 30-points in four of his last five games, hitting the under here is the real risk. LeBron James is creeping up on the all-time points leader mark and every game is another chance to rip a chunk out of that distance separating him and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The Grizzlies and Lakers always make for entertaining basketball and LeBron James loves the spotlight.

If LeBron James has a big game, you can assume Ja Morant will do everything he can to match the energy. Truly, Morant will be the one setting the tone, but you don’t tempt James into showing you why he is regarded as an all-time great. Morant has his work cut out for him playing against this Lakers backcourt, so the only real downside to this game is this game turning into a blowout and neither superstar being needed.

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