NBA DFS Prop Picks for 1/11/23 - Monkey Knife Fight

Rave about the high-scoring games all you want, I’m here for the free-throws. The Miami Heat converted, for the first time in NBA history, 100% of their 40 free-throw attempts and this isn’t the only notable ‘charity stripe’ narrative this season. Luka Doncic is slowly becoming notorious for his “missed” free-throws you can be sure teams are going to take a few notes for their own game planning.

Wednesday brings us eight games after a modest seven-game slate Tuesday, with just the Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns playing their second game in two days. The Pistons were blown out handily and Kevin Knox II was the only starter to play over 30 minutes, while the under-manned Suns had no choice but to play Mikal Bridges for 40 minutes. Bridges has the energy to play heavy minutes in back-to-back games, but playing the ‘Steph Curry Warriors’ with ‘Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets’ right is a tough stint for anyone.

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MIL @ ATL

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 32.5 Points – Trae Young (ATL) MORE 26.5 Points

These teams have already met three times this season and Trae Young hasn’t shown consistency in either of the two games he was able to actually play. In the two games where the Hawks won, either Young didn’t play or he had a modest game and really fueled the hot-hands rather than being one himself. 21-points and nine-assists is only a good game from a non-betting perspective, but he’s put up 30-points in three of his last four games and that usually matters more than the defense when it comes to Trae Young.

Similarly, defenses don’t matter when Giannis Antetokounmpo plays either. He either puts up a massive game or goes down trying. The Hawks defense has shot-blockers, but they don’t have the man-power to stick someone in the paint and assume that will keep Antetokounmpo from getting to the rim. It takes a team-effort and not the type of team-effort the Hawks currently possess. Onyeka Okongwu has to step up in a big way tonight if Atlanta wants to limit Giannis.

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IND @ NYK

 Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 24.5 Points – Tyrese Haliburton (IND) MORE 20.5 Points

It’s upsetting to not see Jalen Brunson’s name here, but Julius Randle deserves his recognition for his efforts this season. He hasn’t scored under 25-points in a game since the Knicks December 20^th blowout win over the Warriors where Randle only scored 15-points on 12-attempts. It’s hard to gauge anything based on blowouts, but over the last two weeks Randle is averaging close to 31-points a game.

Everyone would like to see Tyrese Haliburton score more points, but if it comes at the expense of his incredible assist totals this season it’s not worth it. There are few, if any, players distributing the ball more efficiently than Haliburton and he very rarely is unable to score, he just defers to teammates as a good point guard should. It’s hard to be as confident on him scoring 21-points as it was earlier in the season, but based on sheer effort and usage there isn’t a more important player in the Pacer offense.

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NOP @ BOS

Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 31.5 Points –C.J. McCollum (NOP) MORE 24.5 Points

You can’t look at Jayson Tatum’s game log and be anything but impressed. Even though a 32-points game isn’t easy by any means, Tatum has been producing that with regularity, especially recently. He’s averaging 31-points over the last week, but his shot-attempts is the real target. Any player, especially one with his skillset, that is taking upwards of 20-shots a night, sometimes getting closer to 30-attempts, you take the over with confidence.

C.J. McCollum is in a similar situation except for the fact that he is by himself in the Pelicans offense. He’s clearly the focal point, but that can be easy to defend when you have a capable defense and the Celtics have that. There is no doubt McCollum’s floor is still fairly high, but since the Celtics know he will be their best option, his overall upside might be hindered. Regardless, when you have the chance to bet on someone like C.J. McCollum or Jayson Tatum and you know they will be heavily relied on, the over is never a bad option.

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SAS @ MEM

Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 27.5 Points – Tre Jones (SAS) MORE 13.5 Points

These teams played last night and although Ja Morant didn’t play, nothing about the game made it clear that the Spurs could stop Morant if he did. While the Grizzlies are on this type of streak, they are going to give Morant the rest he needs. He’s missed the last two games which should cause some concern, but if he plays you have to like the over. The only downside is that Morant could play a more passive role in the offense and let the Grizzlies keep rolling…as if Morant has ever played a ‘passive’ game of basketball in his life.

Tre Jones has scored at least 14-points in his last four games, so while he is starting, take his over. Even as the point guard, the Spurs don’t have a ton of options to rely on so there’s no real reason to just assume the under here. If his projected totals stay this low, Tre Jones could be a huge booster to bettors this week.

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